Daff's Weekly Round Up

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The start of the World Cup is only a week away, and a lot of ‘futures’ markets have been opened. Australia have firmed into $3.00 to win the Cup, and they are really popular at that price with a  little over $10,00 arriving this week alone. South Africa are $3.50, with New Zealand into $5.50 after spending a couple of weeks at $6.00. For the first time we are seeing some serious money for the Kiwis, and that is understandable given their lead up form. India have blown out to $10, narrowly ahead of England at $11, then follows Sri Lanka ($13), Pakistan ($17) and the West Indies ($31), but there is very little interest in that trio.

The extra markets this week have been focused on the players, with a ‘most wickets’ and ‘most runs’ market available for the series, as well as most of the major hopes. Overall, Dave Warner and Hashim Amla are the $11 co-favourites to top the run totals, and while their form justifies those places in the market, the early money has been for a few of the others. Most popular have been AB De Villiers ($13) and Steve Smith ($17) , with others to attract support including Brendan McCullum ($13), Kumar Sangakkara ($21) and Ross Taylor at $41).

There has been a similar trend with the market to take the most wickets. Mitch Stark and Dale Steyne head the betting at $9.00, but all of the early money has been split between Mitchell Johnson at $11 and Morne Morkel at $17.


Rugby Union

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The Six Nations season starts this week, and the Super Rugby the week after, and betting is open all round 1 games of both comps.

Ireland are the $2.75 favourites to win the Six Nations from England ($3.50) and Wales ($3.50), but that betting will change after this week as Wales host England. There has been a huge go for Wales to start with a win, and they have firmed from $1.80 into $1.50, with England drifting to $2.60. Ireland are $1.16 to start their season with a win over Italy, while France are also warm $1.20 pops to beat Scotland.

The Waratahs, Chiefs and Crusaders are all at $5.00 to win the Super Rugby title, with the surprise being that the Waratahs are the least popular side under $13 to defend their title. While the Chiefs and Crusaders have been in demand, so also have been the Sharks ($7.50), the Reds ($12), and even the Hurricanes ($17) and Highlanders ($29) at longer odds. The support for the Reds suggest that their fans think they will return to their best this year but they have a very tough assignment first up in Canberra. There has been a sprinkling of money for the Reds at $2.90, but the bigger support has been for the Brumbies to win at $1.40, and also cover a 7.0 point line.


Rugby League

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Rugby League

The Auckland Nines was again a very successful carnival, with Souths coming away with the trophy. As expected the betting was pretty frantic with the games coming up so quickly, but the bookies edged out the punters after getting off to a terrific start. There were 31 games played, 19 favourites won and the remaining 12 were won by the outsiders.

Although that format is nothing like the NRL season ahead, it has been interesting to note that the 2 best sides in title betting this week have been Souths and Cronulla. Souths have been $6.00 into $5.50 while the Sharks have been $26 into $21, with most of the other major chances easing out slightly. The day before the Nines started there were a couple of big bets taken on the Gold Coast to make the final 8 this year, $5000 at $3.75 and $6000 at $3.50, but they remain unwanted at $67 to win the title.

The success of Souths last week hasn’t really inspired too much activity for them in the Charity Shield which will be played on Saturday night. They will be missing Greg Inglis, but it is still a very strong side on paper yet nobody is keen on the $1.50 on offer. St George Illawarra have also named a near full strength side, but they have been the team to attract the most early business at $2.60 and also at the line of +5.5. Historically there have been plenty of upsets in these matches but it is hard to go past Souths with the squad they have named.

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There will be months of talk surrounding the finish to this year’s Super Bowl, but the records will show that the Patriots won, and there were a lot of happy TattsBet punters with that result. The Pats are one of the more popular NFL sides on a weekly basis anyway, and although New England and Seattle went into the game as $1.91 equal fav’s, the ratio of bets was 2:1 in favour of New England. Even when they were behind, the Pats continued to attract support at $3.00 with their fans confident of a comeback, and they were right!

Betting is open on Super Bowl 50, and New England and Seattle are the $6.00 favourites, and that seems a logical starting point. Green Bay are on the third line at $8.00, with a gap to Denver ($13) and Dallas ($17). It normally takes a couple of weeks before the first wave of bets arrive, so we will keep you posted on any moves.

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The way Tiger Woods played last week, he should be one of the outsiders in this week’s Farmers Insurance Open, but this is an event he has dominated in the past and plenty are keen to take the $34 on offer. Tiger has won this event at Torrey Pines a staggering 7 times in the past, with the most recent win in 2013. Another performance like last week will surely spell the end of his popularity with punters, but he does claim that he is still capable of returning to his best. We shall wait and see!

While Tiger has won here 7 times, Phil Mickelson has a good record as well with 3 wins, and there has been interest in him also at $26. Jason Day and Jordan Spieth are the $13 favourites with the later really popular, but so has been Hideki Matsuyama $21) who tied for 2nd behind Brooks Koepka last week. Koepka is in the field as a $26 chance, while last years winner, Scott Stallings, is well down the order at $126. There is also a market on whether Tiger will make the cut with the ‘no’ option the favoured way at $1.85 with ‘yes’ at $1.95.

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The market got it right when Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams won the Aussie Open titles, and while Djokovic was always well in demand from start to finish, punters shunned right away from Serena, even when she was in the final. Williams opened at $2.20 several months ago, and there were a lot of doubts about her lead up form which saw her get to $3.50 after the first round. She hovered around that quote until the quarter final stage, but even in the final she was a marked drifter from $1.45 out to $1.52. The stats pointed towards a win to Serena in straight sets, but even that option eased from $1.75 out to $1.95.

The French Open is the next Major on the calendar, and Serena opens at $3.50 there ahead of Maria Sharapova at $4.50 and Simona Halep at $6.00. Rafael Nadal is clearly superior on clay and opens at $2.20 to win the mens title, but naturally there will be a lot of focus on him leading up to the French, just to see if he is over all of his problems. Djokovic is close behind at $2.60, and then a long gap to Stan Wawrinka at $15.

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V8 Supercars

With less than a month to go to the Clipsal 500 in Adelaide, TattsBet have opened a market on this years Championship. It would be no surprise that Jamie Whincup is the $3.50 favourite, but there has been a changing of the guard in relation to those behind Whincup in the betting. In years gone by Craig Lowndes was always the second pick, but he is $9.00, with 3 others separating he and Whincup. Volvo’s Scott McLaughlin is the second pick at $5.50, just ahead of Shane Van Gisbergen ($6.00) and Mark Winterbottom ($8.00). All eyes will be on Marcos Ambrose ($15) who is returning from several seasons racing Nascars, but by his own admission this week, Ambrose thinks he is at least a season away from being competitive. Fox Sports will be covering the V8’s this year along with Channel 10, and Fox will be covering the tests this weekend at Eastern Creek. TattsBet has opened a market on the ‘Super Test Shootout’ on Sunday which is one lap only for each car. Whincup and McLaughlin head that market at $6.00.

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Horse Racing

TattsBet now have an exhaustive list of feature races open with fixed odds available, and they will all be updated at the end of racing each Saturday unless there is a major concern from that day’s racing. The focus this week is on Monday’s Hobart Cup, and it is shaping as one of the most open in memory. Following on from the field being finalized and the barrier draw, we installed 3 equal favourites at $5.00, Pelicano, Banca Mo and Genuine Lad. The early action has been split between Pelicano and Banca Mo with the latter pleasing connections in a barrier trial on Tuesday to push on with a start. Local champ Geegees Blackflash always has a huge following and he has been steady at $6.50 after a bet of $1000 at $7.00 early in the week. Aside from the first four in the betting, the other runners to draw some sort of support have been Garud ($8.00), Ollies Gold ($21) and Perplexing, one of the outsiders at $51.

Things are warming up in the Blue Diamond betting as well. Sadly Burnstone ($8.00) passed away early in the week, that has seen a bit of a reshuffle to the market with the impressive Fontiton now $5.50 ahead of Secret Agenda at $6.00 with Of The Brave next in line at $7.50. As is always the case with the 2yo races there have been some big moves at longer odds. Heatherly is now $12 after opening at $201, and in amongst a handful of bets at the $201 was one of $100 each way. Prompt Return opened at $34, and has been supported all the way down to $12 including bets of $500 each way at $21, and 2 separate bets of $1000 this week, one at $15 and the other at $12. The race is still 3 weeks away, so as it becomes clearer what the field is likely to be there will be more big price moves to follow.

Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

It was hard not to miss the barnstorming finish of Kiwi mare Adore Me in the Victoria Cup, and she has been installed as the $3.00 favourite to win the Hunter Cup which will be run at Melton on Saturday night. Adore Me has drawn well in barrier 3 and 85% of the early money has been for her with surprisingly no interest at all in Christen Me at $3.80 even though he won the Vic Cup. Terror To Love is the third string in the powerful Kiwi line-up and he has some admirers at $5.50, while the Aussie hopes rest with Guaranteed ($6.00) and Philadelphia Man at $9.00.

TattsBet has several early markets open for Saturday night including the Victorian Derby where Follow The Stars, a shock loser at $1.10 last week, is the $1.90 favourite to atone in the final. Follow The Stars did open at $2.10 but that was quickly snapped up by one customer with a bet of $4000.

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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