Daff's Weekly Round Up

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The South African Open gets under way on Thursday, and Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel share favouritism at $8.50. Schwartzel won this event in 2012, and there has been some money for him, but Ernie Els ($17), George Coetzee ($19), Thomas Aiken ($26) and Edoardo Molinari ($29) have all met with solid support. Els is a 5 time winner of the SA Open, but his last win in the event was back in 2010. Morten Orum Madsen is the defending champ and is $41 to repeat the dose.

The Hyundai Tournament of Champions is the US PGA event, and it will be played in Kapalua. This tournament used to be the season opener, but with the changing of the calendar, it is now right in the middle. Jason Day has had a torrid run with injuries and is the $7.50 favourite, but punters have bet around the Aussie, preferring Bubba Watson ($8.50), Hideki Matsuyama $15), Zach Johnson ($17) and Ryan Moore ($21). Zach Johnson won last year, and Australian Geoff Ogilvy might be one at odds ($34) as he won here in 2009 and 2010. The other plus for Ogilvy is that in the latter part of last year he did show signs of returning to form.


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The order of betting for this year’s AFL flag hasn’t changed with Hawthorn the $4.00 favourites ahead of both Port Adelaide and Sydney at $4.75, then a gap to Fremantle at $9.00. The first 3 have been hugely popular, but we are beginning see interest in some of the other sides including  bet of $1000 for North Melbourne at $15. The Swans have attracted the most money to date to win the premiership, and last week a client placed $8000 on them to finish in the top 4 at $1.55, and there was also a bet of $6000 come through for Geelong to make the final 8 at $1.55 as well. No doubt things will start to heat up now as the pre-season competition approaches.

Rugby League

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Rugby League

NRL sides are starting to name possible line-ups for the Auckland Nines, which will be played at the end of January. There have been a few changes to the market, but the Warriors remain the favourites at $4.50, and have been easily the best backed. Brisbane are expected to name a strong squad and have firmed from $9.00 into $7.50, while Cronulla have been the other major mover, now $10 after opening at $15.

The Sharks have been $51 into $26 to win the NRL title, but a big bet came in for Melbourne 10 days ago. A wager of $7000 was placed on the Storm at $15, and that has seen their price move from $15 into $13. Souths hold sway at the head of proceedings at $6.00 ahead of the Roosters at $7.00 and Canterbury at $7.50.

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Eight weeks ago the race for the EPL title looked over when Chelsea got into $1.16. The only other side rated any hope at all were Man City at $6.50, and while those 2 sides still dominate the betting, there has been significant changes to the prices. Chelsea did not fare too well over the Christmas/New Year period and have blown right out to $1.60 while Man City are into $2.50 having drawn level with Chelsea on 46 points.

Closer to home, the A League goes into recess while the Asian Cup is on, and Melbourne Victory go to the break as $3.75 favourites to win the title. Adelaide had a big win in Perth on Tuesday of this week and are into $4.50, just ahead of Perth at $4.75. Wellington are arguably the form side of the comp and the price of the Phoenix has crashed into $5.50 after being $23 at the start of the season.

The Asian Cup gets under way on Friday night when Australia will host Kuwait. The Socceroos are expected to win ($1.26), and really do need to make a statement early. They have eased from $3.00 out to $4.00 to win the Cup, with Japan clear favourite now at $3.00, in from $3.25 this time last week. South Korea has been well backed also at $6.00, and that is where the money trail ends, there is little or no interest in any of the other sides. TattsBet will have plenty of extra options open for live betting on each of the matches, and most of the futures markets will be updated at the end of each days play.

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The upsets continue in the Big Bash with only 5 favourites able to win in the 18 games played so far, and one of those, the Melbourne Stars, only won after a Super Over. However as the tournament has progressed we have noticed a lot more activity around the outsiders, with the Heat a big mover in tonight’s match in Perth. After opening at $2.35, the Heat are now into $2.15 with the Scorchers out to $1.70.

The World Cup isn’t far away, and while Australia remain the $3.50 favourites, New Zealand have been a mover. After opening at $11, the Kiwis are now $6.00 following on from some impressive form in all forms of the game. South Africa have been solid in the betting at $4.50, but there has been very little interest in India at $5.50.

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Upsets haven’t been confined to only cricket as there have been plenty during both the Brisbane International and the Hopman Cup. That often happens as players are coming from winters in Europe and the USA, so there hasn’t been too much panic with the betting to win the Australian Open titles. Novak Djokovic is into $2.00 to win the men’s title ahead of Roger Federer ($6.00) and Andy Murray ($7.00). Rafael Nadal is now unlikely to play, so he is out to $11 after opening at $5.50. Serena Williams has really struggled in Perth this week, and has eased slightly from $2.50 to $2.75 to win the Aus Open. Eugenie Bouchard has been $17-$13 after beating William s in Perth while Caroline Wozniacki is now into $9.00 and has been in good form in Auckland this week. The markets have been opened for both men’s and women’s titles for next weeks Sydney International.

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The inclement weather on the Gold Coast has turned the betting on the 2yo Magic Millions into a guessing game. Following on from the barrier draw, Wicket Intent re-opened as the $5.00 favourite, and the first bet was $3500 at that quote. Close to $15,000 has been invested on Wicked Intent this week, but the money has dried up today with more rain around. Outside of the favourite, Frequendly is the one attracting most of the other bigger bets, but most runners are now easy to sell. While all of the historical stats around the race point towards favourites and those drawn inside barrier 10, if the track is to be on the worse side of slow come Saturday, then that might play right into the hands of those drawn out wide, or that can come from behind. The biggest bet for the week so far was a bet of $15,000 for Carriages to run a place at $4.50. Carriages did touch $21 ($6.00 place) after drawing wide, but is back into $17 and $5.00 after a string of smaller bets. The owners and trainer (Henderson boys and Gai Waterhouse) both have huge followings whenever they have a runner, and Carriages was able to win the reverse way of going at Ballarat. This is probably the most open Millions in history, so nothing can be ruled out!

Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

Group Racing returns to South Australia this week, and TattsBet had fixed odds markets open on 3 of the races on Tuesday.

Recent Miracle Mile placegetter Guaranteed will be making the trip to Adelaide, and is $1.60 to win the SA Pacing Cup. Guaranteed is the class runner of the field, but has drawn awkwardly on the outside of the second row. Franco Ledger won its last start at Melton, and has been backed from $4.40 into $3.50, with most thinking it will find the front from barrier 5.

Last start Melton winner Jilliby Royal is the $1.40 favourite to win the SA Derby. And after drawing perfectly in barrier 1, he is expected to win. Jilliby Royal has only tasted defeat once in 6 starts, and the main danger appears to be another Victorian, Mach Doro ($2.80).

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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