Daff's Weekly Round Up

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Rory McIlroy will be making his first appearance for 2015 in this week's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and punters have been very keen to take the $5.00 for the Irishman. Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson are the equal second picks at $11, just ahead pf Ricky Fowler ($13) and Martin Kaymer ($15). Kaymer is a 3 time winner of this event in 2008,2010 and 2011, while McIlroy tied for 2nd with Phil Mickelson last year behind Pablo Larrazabal who is well down the betting this year at $67.

The US Tour is still in Hawaii this week when the Sony Open will be played in Honolulu. Jason Day stormed home last week with a closing round of 11 under when 3rd behind Patrick Reed and Jimmy Walker in Tournament of Champions, and there has been plenty of early interest in Day at $13 to win the Sony Open. He is favourite at that price but there is also backing for Walker at $17, and apart from his 2nd last week, he did win this event last year.


Rugby League

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Rugby League

The Auckland 9’s is only a fortnight away, and although North Queensland are yet to confirm whether Jonathan Thurston will play or not, the Cowboys have been the best supported side this week at $9.00. The same applies to the NRL title where the Cowboys are now into $8.00 from an opening $11, and have now had more bets placed on them than any other side. With the Brisbane Broncos and the Cowboys carrying so much money to win the title, we are expecting plenty of interest in the market to be the ‘Top QLD’ team for 2015. Brisbane and North Queensland opened at $2.00 with the Gold Coast Titans at $11, and 80% of the early money has been for the Broncos.

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The Tri Nations begins on Friday, and it will be interesting to see how punters react to the mixture of Big Bash and the ODI’s in the coming weeks. The betting on the Big Bash has gone up another notch this year, and the mixture of outsiders winning along with many swings in the matches has not only been entertaining but good for betting. The Scorchers have been the favourites at around the $3.25 mark to win the Big Bash for the better part of this week, just ahead of the Strikers at $3.50, then the Stars ($4.50) and the Sixers at $6.00. One thing worth remembering is that the final will be played on a neutral ground in Canberra.

Australia have firmed from $1.90 into $1.85 to win the Tri Nations led up by a bet of $3400. India are on the second line of betting at $2.90, with England the outsiders at $5.00. Australia line up against England at the SCG on Friday $1.42 favourites, and then play India in another day/nighter at the MCG on Sunday. Naturally the form from these games will have a large bearing on the upcoming World Cup betting where we currently have Australia the $3.50 favourites ahead of South Africa ($4.50), India ($5.50) and New Zealand at $6.00.

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And then there were four…

There was a big upset in last week’s NFL playoffs when Denver ($1.32-$1.20) were upstaged by Indianapolis. While the other 3 favourites won their respective games, only one of those, Seattle, was able to cover the allocated line, and they only did that by half a point !

Seattle now firm up into $2.20 to win the Superbowl ahead of New England at $2.60, Green Bay at $6.50 and Indianapolis at $9.00. Betting on this week’s Conference Championship matches has gone down a similar path to last week where there is plenty of money, particularly through multis, for both fav’s to win, but the line money has been for both outsiders.  Seattle opened at $1.28 to beta Green Bay at $3.70 with the line at 7.5, while New England are $1.36 to beat Indianapolis at $3.15, with that line set at 6.5. As soon as these matches are completed on Monday the betting will be up for the final.

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The upsets have continued this week as the Australian Open approaches, and that has seen a few changes to the Open markets.

Novak Djokovic is rock solid at $2.00 to win the mens title, but on the back of a win in Brisbane, Roger Federer is the player who has attracted most bets this week, now $5.50 after being $6.00. There is no interest in Andy Murray at $8.00, but there never is, Aussie punters have never warmed to the Scot, but there is now some support building for Rafael Nadal at $11 after he looked in good fettle in an exhibition game on Wednesday night. While many have been talking up the chances of Kei Nishikori ($12) and defending champ Stan Wawrinka ($13), punters have kept away from the pair, but there has been interest in Milos Raonic at $26.

One market that TattsBet opened that sparked some interest was the ‘Last Standing Aussie’ of the tournament. Bernard Tomic opened at $2.50 but has been crunched into $2.10, Nick Kyrgios has been $2.75 out to $3.25 now that he is under an injury cloud, with the ever reliable Lleyton Hewitt at $5.50. John Millman has been in good form and he has been a big firmer, now $26 after opening at $81.

It is always hard to gauge where Serena Williams is at, and there has to be a major concern over her Hopman Cup form. The price for Williams to win the Australian Open in Melbourne has blown like the north wind, currently $3.50 after opening at $2.50. There is no confidence around her chances from within the betting world as less than $1000 has been placed on her. Maria Sharapova has been most popular this week ($5.50-$4.75), but most of the others under $21 have been well supported.

TattsBet will have all of the first round matches open on the weekend and will have an extensive ‘live’ coverage throughout the Open.

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We are a week into the Asian Cup, and there are a couple of interesting stats surfaced. Of the 12 games played to date (up until Thursday), there have been no draws, and there have only been 2 outsiders win, and on both occasions it was China, who were only marginally outsiders anyway. The order of the first four sides in the market to win the final hasn’t changed that much, but now that we have all had a couple of looks at each team, the interest levels have definitely lifted. Japan ($3.00) and Australia ($3.25) now make up roughly 80% of the hold in the final book, while Iran ($5.50) have moved into third favourite just ahead of South Korea at $6.00.

The first really big betting game of the tournament will be on Saturday night when Australia host South Korea at Suncorp. The Socceroos only need a draw to top the group, but that shouldn’t mean they will be complacent, and they have been the standout in betting at $2.00. South Korea are at $3.65, while the draw is friendless at $3.40, amazing really when you consider that Australia would be happy with at least a draw. As the positions in each group become finalized, we will open up betting on the quarter finals.

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Unfortunately due to Government regulations Queensland residents cannot bet with TattsBet on the Queensland election, but there has been enough interest shown by customers from other regions to get a feel for what is likely to happen on Jan 31. This election is getting plenty of coverage nation-wide, and whilst the LNP may have been on shaky ground several months ago, the rank and file think that they will in fact get back in to office. After opening at $1.22 when the election was called, the LNP is now $1.14, and when there is a trend like that, it normally doesn’t end there. Labor are out to $5.50 after opening at $4.20.

Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

This week's Bendigo Cup will have a matchup of the 2 heavyweights of Australasian harness racing, Christen Me and Beautide. The pair last met in November in the Miracle Mile where Christen Me narrowly got the better of Beautide after having the cold sit on him. Both are on a path to the Group 1 Victoria Cup, and punters agree with the betting that says the Bendigo Cup is a 2 horse race. After opening at $2.10, Beautide is in marginally to $2.00, Christen Me has held its place at $2.20, and there is practically no interest in any other runner, with all drifting beyond their opening quote.

Greyhounds Racing

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The heats of the Paws of Thunder were run at Wentworth Park last Saturday night, and the wet and slushy conditions saw plenty of upsets with only one favourite winning through to this week’s final. Four Victorians and four locals will contest the final, and Melbourne Cup winner Dyna Villa has opened at $2.35 after coming up with box 8. He will need to be on his very best behaviour to get across from out there. The main dangers appear to be 2 of the locals, Assertive Bella ($4.50) and Shoulders ( $5.50). Assertive Bella was having its first start for Jason Mackay and has drawn well in the red box while Shoulders will exit for box 6, the same as his heat win when he ran the equal fastest time.

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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