Daff's Weekly Round Up - 7 August 2014


Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

As part of the TattsBet commitment to harness racing fixed odds betting, there is an early market on the Group 3 SEW Eurodrive at Menangle on Saturday night.

Shane Tritton holds the key to the race with three runners - favourite Mach Beauty ($2.00), Suave Stuey Lombo ($3.50) and Saucy Legend ($12). Saucy Legend is the likely leader and normally hands up, so it will be interesting to see who gets the lead. Chariot King ($9.00) is trained by ex race caller John Tapp, and although first up, he was flying last campaign. Seel N Print ($9.00) will need luck from the gate, but was placed in the 2014 Interdominion.

 



Greyhounds Racing

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Greyhounds

The State finals of the Sprint and Distance titles will be held this week, apart from Perth, who will have their heats on Saturday night. WA is the host state this year, and that is why their heats are a week behind. Most of the State finals look really competitive, but the one standout is the distance final at Sandown. That race will see the clash between Xylia Allen ($2.50) and Sweet It Is ($2.50), who returned from a break to score a  win last week. The pair have different racing styles, and both have a big following with the TattsBet fixed odds punters, so it will be interesting to see which one of the duo they go with.

 



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Racing

The first round of nominations for a lot of the Spring features closed on Tuesday, and the Melbourne Cup noms close in a month’s time. There has already been a huge amount of interest  in the Cup with The Offer the $13 favourite. And after an impressive Spring, Gai Waterhouse's stayer has already been backed to win in excess of $250,000 with TattsBet. The Offer opened at $67, and has been steadily backed all the way down, and only last week another bet of $500 each way arrived at $13. Another runner backed to win a similar amount is Kiwi mare Silent Achiever, now into $31 after opening at $67 as well. With many of the Cups horses due to resume in the next couple of weeks, we can expect a lot of big moves over the coming weeks.

 



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Golf

The US PGA is always the quietest of the Majors each year, but as it is the big event on internationally for the week after the recent World Cup and Glasgow Games, interest is certainly starting to ramp up. Rory McIlroy has been in outstanding form and is backing up from a big win last weekend. The Irishman is the stand-out at $6.00, well ahead of Adam Scott at $11. Scott hasn’t attracted anywhere near the business he has over the past few Majors, but is expected to be right at home at Valhalla. Sergio Garcia is yet to win a Major, and is next in line at $17, a price he shares with Justin Rose. Tiger Woods re-injured his back last week and is a doubtful starter (now $31), but if Tiger doesn’t tee off on the first day, bets will be refunded. While most of the Aussies have met with a lot of support, the most popular aside from Adam Scott, is Marc Leishman ($41-$34) who finished just behind McIlroy last week in 3rd place. A lot of the exotic markets will be re-opened each day along with the outright book.

 



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MotoGP

The interest in the motoGP season now revolves around how long the winning streak of Marc Marquez will last. The Spaniard has won all nine races to date, and is $1.28 to win again in Indianapolis this weekend. Marquez won the corresponding race last year from Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo, and that pair are the next in the market behind him again. With Marquez dominating, there is now a ‘favourite out’ market available which is the ‘best finish’ apart from the favourite. Pedrosa is $2.50 to win there, ahead of Lorenzo at $2.75, with Valentino Rossi close behind them at $3.00.

 



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V8 Supercars

Jamie Whincup has overtaken Mark Winterbottom at the head of the V8 Supercar Championship market after racking up two wins at Ipswich last week. Whincup is now on 1790 points, and $2.00, ahead of Winterbottom at $3.25 (1775pts) and Craig Lowndes at $5.00 (1628pts). There is now a three week break before Eastern Creek, but the Race 1 market is already open on that meeting with Whincup leading the way at $3.50 ahead of Lowndes ($5.00), Winterbottom ($6.00) and Scott McLaughlin ($8.00).

 



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Cricket

England returned to the winners circle in the 3rd test against India, but it is the draw that has been backed in the 4th test which gets under way at Old Trafford tonight (Thursday). India have some injury concerns, and there is a possibility of bad weather, so the draw has been $2.25 into $2.05, England are solid at $2.55, and the India are the drifters, now $5.50 after opening at $4.50.

TattsBet has opened a market on the Big Bash, timely given the signing of Kevin Pietersen by the Melbourne Stars. Pietersen is an explosive player when on song, but while he may well be past his best, he will create plenty of interest as he continues his love/hate relationship with the Australian public. The Stars are the $4.00 favourites ahead of the Hurricanes at $5.50, then the Renegades and Scorchers at $6.50 Sydney Thunder were the whipping boys last season and are the outsiders at $11.

 



Rugby League

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Rugby League

Manly ($3.50) and Souths ($5.00) head the NRL market, and it is clear in one punter's mind who he thinks will win when then these two sides slug it out on Friday night. The customer in question weighed in this week with a bet of $6000 for Souths to take the title, and of course a win on Friday night would see that price quickly disappear. In a very big betting game, the Bunnies have been $2.20 into $2.05 after four days of betting, with a distinct possibility that even that price will be gone on Friday. Manly have been $1.66 out to $1.78.

The Bulldogs have gone off the rails the last couple of weeks, but there is also a confident push for them to bounce back against Brisbane in the other Friday night match. It is rare that we see more support for the ‘travelling’ side when there is a match at Suncorp, but the Bulldogs have already been $2.05 into $2.00, with Brisbane out to $1.82.

Canberra could make up a decent side out of their list of injured players, and they are expected to get towelled up by Parramatta on Saturday night. This match will be in Darwin, and that is another negative for the Raiders, who have had to endure sub-zero temperatures in the nation’s capital over the last week, and now have to front up to the humid conditions in Darwin. There is a heap of action going through Parramatta for the multis, and they have firmed from $1.25 into $1.21 in head-to-head betting. There is a similar trend occurring on the line of -12.5, with the ratio of bets running 6:1 in favour of the Eels conceding the start. If the money is right, the Raiders will be in for another pounding in the media next week.

 



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AFL

The argument about whether or not ineligible players should be able to win the Brownlow Medal has surfaced again this week, with Fremantle’s Nathan Fyfe in amongst the Dockers’ best players last week. Fyfe cannot win the Brownlow this year after being suspended for two weeks, but TattsBet has opened a market on whether or not Fyfe will top the votes on Medal night. He is $3.50 to get the most votes, or it is $1.28 any other player, in essence that he won’t win. Dead heat rules apply to that market.

Whilst on the Brownlow, we have a new favourite this week, and he is very popular. Joel Selwood opened at $4.25 on Monday behind Josh Kennedy at $4.00, but roles have been reversed on the back of some big action for Selwood. The biggest of those bets was $5000 at $4.25, and he has clearly been the player everybody wants to be on. For the record, our AFL experts still have Gary Ablett a couple of votes clear, and he remains at $6.00.

This week’s matches are a mixture of close betting games and some that appear one-sided. Geelong have been the best backed team early in the week, firming from $1.57 into $1.47 to beat Fremantle. Bets of $3500 ($1.57) and $4000 ($1.55) led the charge before Steve Johnson got off at the tribunal, and the one way traffic has continued. West Coast are still a mathematical chance of a finals appearance, and although there is some talk of Dane Swan coming back for Collingwood on Sunday, the Eagles have been $1.95 into $1.85.

 







Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager


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