Daff's Weekly Round Up


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Golf

Rory McIlroy is building up quite a fan base in the punting ranks, and most have come back again to take the $5.00 for the Irishman to win The Barclays. This year’s event will be played at the Ridgewood CC in Paramus, New Jersey, and Matt Kuchar ($34) won the last time the Barclays was played here in 2010. Adam Scott is the defending champion, and as expected hugely popular at $15, a price he shares with Henrik Stenson. Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia are next in line at $19, just ahead of Justin Rose at $21. Outside of that group, others to attract attention have been Phil Mickelson ($26-$23), Jim Furyk ($31) and Brandt Snedeker ($34).

The European Tour event this week is the Czech Masters which will be played in Prague. The Czech Masters has been on and off the Tour in the past due to money issues, but it has a new home this year at the Albatross Golf Club. Oliver Fisher won the event in 2011 and has met with some backing at $31, but the preferences lie with favourite Jamie Donaldson ($11), Joost Luiten ($13) and Stephen Gallacher ($21-$19)



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V8 Supercars

TattsBet is now the official wagering partner of the V8 Supercars, so the series takes on added importance for us this week as the V8’s return to Eastern Creek.

2012 was the last time that Eastern Creek was used, and on that occasion Craig Lowndes and Jamie Whincup were the two winners, with Lowndes also finishing 2nd in the race won by Whincup. Lowndes has been the most prolific winner at the course with 5 victories, but his 2014 form has been a little indifferent. Whincup roared back into the title lead and favouritism with 2 wins at Ipswich, and not surprisingly he has been well backed to win race 1 this week at $3.25. Lowndes is  the second elect at $4.75 ahead of Scott McLaughlin ($7.00) and Mark Winterbottom ($8.50). Shane Van Gisbergen is another who has struggled this season but has been the most popular outside of the two favourites at $15. There will be no practise sessions on Friday, so Saturday will be hectic with 2 races due to be run, while the 3rd race will be on Sunday.

 



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Formula 1

Daniel Ricciardo’s fans are enjoying the ride at the moment, and why not as he has racked up two wins this season at big odds. Ricciardo won the last race in Hungary, starting a very heavily supported $13 chance, and he is at a similar quote ($12) to win in Belgium this week. Lewis Hamilton is the $1.65 favourite ahead of Nico Rosberg ($2.40), but there has also been some interest in Sebastian Vettel ($23) and Fernando Alonso ($34). Vettel has the form on board here with 2 wins and a 2nd from the last 3 years, but of course he is nowhere near the dominator that he was then. Alonso was placed 2nd behind Vettel last year but more importantly showed a return to form last start when 2nd behind Ricciardo in Hungary, so he may well be the value in the race.

 



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Swimming

The Pan Pacs will be held on the Gold Coast this week from Thursday through until Sunday, and TattsBet will be betting on all of the finals.

Heats for some events get under way early Thursday with several finals due to be run during the night session. Prices will be up as soon as possible after the final field is known. No doubt the big drawcard of the meet is Michael Phelps, and the highlight of the carnival should be the 200m Individual Medley to go off on Sunday night. Phelps will be up against arch rival Ryan Lochte, and there was only 0.05 separating the pair when the qualifying was done for the Pan Pacs. James Magnussen will feature prominently in the 100m freestyle but is expected to have hot competition from Cameron McEvoy as well as the American duo of Jimmy Feigan and veteran Anthony Ervin.

 



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Greyhounds

The National Sprint and Distance finals will be held at Cannington, Perth on Saturday night, and TattsBet has early fixed odds up on both events.

Queensland rep Flash Reality is the $2.75 favourite to win the Sprint but won’t have it all his own way with reliable beginners Chica Destacada ($4.50) drawn in box 2 and another couple of quick beginners drawn ion boxes 5 and 6. One of those is local hope Star Recall ($4.00) in box 6, and she had no luck at all when finishing 2nd in the WA heat last week.

The Distance Final trophy looks like it will be heading to Victoria with their 2 reps dominating the market. Xylia Allen ($2.50) will break the all time stake money record with a win or a second finish while Sweet It Is ($2.50) was gallant in defeat when second to Xylia Allen in the Victorian final. Sweet It Is gets the nod from our analysts as she has had a couple of runs around Cannington and was most unlucky in the Galaxy Final there several months ago.

 



Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

TattsBet has early fixed odds markets on the Breeders Crown meeting at Melton this Sunday, and there have been quite a few early moves. Best backed runner of the day is Our Twentyten which will go around in race 10. After opening at $3.00, a swag of money saw the price crash into $2.20, and does look hard to beat on recent form. One Over Da Moon ($4.20) looms as the main danger , and it is worth noting she won a New Zealand jewels a little over 12 months ago.

One of the interesting runners for the day will be Frith in the opening event, the 4yo mares Final. Frith has been the dominate mare in Australia this year but has drawn awkwardly in barrier 8. For that reason she is at a backable $1.40, but with ordinary luck should still get the money.

 



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Horse Racing

A lot of the Spring features are now open for betting with TattsBet, but it is still the Melbourne Cup that is attracting the most support. The Offer has been $67 into the current quote of $13 since betting opened several months ago, but many are even finding that price too hard to knock back. One customer weighed in late last week with a bet of $2500 each way The Offer at $13, and nearly 20% of the bets taken for the Cup to date have been for The Offer. He has now been backed to take out over $300,00, but is hotly pressed by Silent Achiever , now into $29 after also opening at $67. Kirramosa ($31)was a nice run first up and has already been backed to win over $400,00 including one bet of $2500 each way at the opening price of $81 (a win of $250,000).

 



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Rugby Union

They say a week is a long time in football, and the Wallabies might find that out when they take on the All Blacks in Auckland on Saturday night.

The two sides played out a 12-12 draw in a brutal game in Sydney last Saturday, but most expect it to be an entirely different scoreline this week at Eden Park. The last time the Australians won there was 1986, and the internet had never been heard of. That is a damning stat in itself, but the last time that the All Blacks lost at home to anybody was in 1994 when they went down to France in a last minute try to the French. That has seen New Zealand installed as raging $1.20 favourites with Australia at $4.50, and the line has been set at 10.5.

In the other match, Argentina were valiant when going down 13-6 in South Africa last weekend, and return home as outsiders again. Last week they were getting 24.5 points start and the Springboks never looked likely to cover in wet conditions, but this week the line is a lot lower, also at 10.5.

The first week of the ITM Cup was busy, but only 4 of the 7 favourites were able to win. The second round gets under way tonight (Thursday), and that will be followed by the first match in the new Australian National Rugby Championship. The Thursday night matches will be shown live on Fox Sports so TattsBet will be betting live on those games. Brisbane City will be hosting the Sydney Stars with the home side going in as firm favourites.

 



Rugby League

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Rugby League

Souths emerged from last weekend’s NRL matches as $3.50 title favourites, and over 50% of the bets this week and been for the Rabbits to end a long drought. Manly are on the second line at $4.00, followed by the Roosters at $5.00, and Melbourne at $7.50. At the other end of the ladder we have suspended the ‘most losses’ market in light of the issues with Cronulla re-surfacing this week.

Several ladder positions are still up for grabs, and nearly all of this week’s games are competitive betting matches. The shortest favourite is the Bulldogs who play tonight Thursday), and they have been $1.20 into $1.17 to beat the Tigers. New Zealand went over last week as favourites, and although they play the Roosters, there has been a really good push for them to get the 2 points. The game is in Auckland, so that is a big plus, and the Warriors are now into $1.95 after opening at $2.00. The other early push this week  has been for the Dragons who will be at WIN Stadium on Sunday. After opening at $1.45, the Dragons were quickly into $1.40 to beat the Gold Coast, and on what we have seen to date that price might disappear as well.

 



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AFL

Sydney are back into flag favourites at $2.65 after their big win over St Kilda and the loss of Hawthorn to Fremantle. The Hawks are out to $3.25, with Fremantle into $4.50, and Geelong at $6.00. The big betting news this week however was with the Brownlow Medal where Gary Ablett had his odds cut from $6.00 into $4.50 even though he didn’t pull a boot on! As we have been mentioning, our analyst still have Ablett ahead, and with Joel Selwood unlikely to be amongst the votes last week, and a hamstring injury to Josh Kennedy, Ablett had to firm. That seemed to spark interest in him, and he is now into $3.75 behind Selwood at $2.90, while Kennedy has blown to $7.00 from $4.00. Dyson Heppell had been a huge mover, into $8.00 on Monday, but unfortunately he broke his hand on Wednesday, has had an operation, and is unlikely to be back for the final 2 rounds. The price for Heppell is now $15, but he has come in a long way considering he was $501 mid- May. Forwards don’t seem to be able to win the Brownlow anymore but Lance Franklin is also a big mover. Buddy was $201 during June but is now $13, and $1.20 to win the Coleman Medal.

All matches this week mean something in the context of all important ladder positions, and there have been a couple of significant moves. The clash of the round is at the MCG on Saturday night when Hawthorn play Geelong, and the Hawks firmed from $1.65 into $1.55 on Wednesday with rumours around that Jimmy Bartel may again be a withdrawal from Geelong. Boomer Harvey is on the sidelines for North Melbourne again and that has seen a surge of interest in Adelaide, now quite popular at $2.10 after being a $2.40 chance. The Kangaroos are out to $1.70  with very few takers at that quote.

Richmond are once again coming with a rush at the end of the season, and need percentage against St Kilda this week. The Tigers are $1.08 to win, but they will be looking to easily cover the line of 45.5 points.

 







Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager


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