Daff's Weekly Round Up - 31 July 2014

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V8 Supercars

The V8’s move to Ipswich this weekend with 3 races due to be run. The first 2 will be over 100km’s each, and will be on Saturday, while race 3 (200km’s) will be on Sunday.

Mark Winterbottom is the $2.25 to win the Drivers title ahead of Jamie Whincup at $2.50, with Whincup trailing by 96 points. Whincup is the $3.50 favourite for race 1 ahead of Craig Lowndes at $4.00. Lowndes has been quiet this season but it is worth noting that he has a terrific record at Ipswich having won there 11 times in the past. Mark Winterbottom and Garth Tander are next in line at $7.00 ahead of Scott McLauchlin at $9.00.  McLaughlin won the middle race here last year after Whincup won the opener, but it was the win in the final race by Chaz Mostert that created the headlines. Mostert is $23 to win race 1 this week. Betting will close while the qualifying sessions are on and will re-open as soon as possible after that.


Formula 1 Photo

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Formula 1

There is a 4 week break in between F1 races but it is worthwhile acknowledging the win by Danial Ricciardo in Hungary last week. Ricciardo is always popular in these races, and those who follow him would now be well ahead after his win in Budapest. He opened at $21 early in the week but was $13 after qualifying. That makes it 2 wins for the season, and no doubt he will be a lot more popular going forward. The race for the Drivers Championship is neck and neck with Nico Rosberg sitting on 202 points, just 11 points clear of Lewis Hamilton. The duo are now $1.90 apiece to win the title.


Greyhounds Racing

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The National Sprint and Distant heats get under way this week, and TattsBet will be offering early fixed odds markets on those heats. The big finals will be in Perth this year, and we will also be covering the finals when they are run at Cannington in a few weeks time.

The Darwin Cup for greyhounds will be run this Friday night, and the final there is dominated by interstate raiders. Victorian Clash of Kings was the fastest heat winner and will be the favourite after coming up with box 1. If he is able to win it will create a unique double as his mother, Queen Lauren, won the Cup a few seasons ago.


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Tiger Woods returns to the PGA Tour again this week in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, and while many critics are prepared to write Tiger off, the betting public think he will bounce back. Tiger is at $15 which places him 3rd in the market behind Rory McIlroy ($7.00) and Adam Scott ($10), but there has been double invested on Tiger than the other 2 added together. Woods has broken all sorts of records throughout his career but he does have an imposing one in this particular event, he has won it a staggering 8 times before, including last year. On that occasion he defeated Keegan Bradley who himself won this event in 2012, so he is another with an affinity for Firestone. Bradley is well in the betting at $23.


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The A League season isn’t too far away now, and with most of the sides involved in the FFA Cup or currently playing friendlies, we are beginning to see some activity around title betting.

Melbourne City have a new name (formerly Heart), and are expected by most to be the team to beat this season. They are the ruling $4.50 favourites ahead of Brisbane Roar ($5.75), Melbourne Victory ($6.00) and Sydney FC ($6.50).

The start of the EPL season is only a couple of weeks away, and after opening at $3.00 equal favourites with Man City, Chelsea are now into outright public elects at $2.85. Of the top 5 in betting, Man City have been the least popular, with punters preferring their cross town rivals Man United at $5.00. Arsenal are next in the market at $7.00 with Liverpool the only other realistic chance at $9.00. Liverpool opened last season at $34 and looked to have a mortgage on the title a few games from the finish before faltering. This is the most open race for the title that we have had for several seasons, and that is always good for betting.


Rugby Union

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Super Rugby

The Waratahs were a $9.00 chance to win the Super Rugby title when betting first opened, a similar price to what they have been in the past. Perhaps their legion of fans have been burnt too many times as there wasn’t much interest in them before the season got under way, and even less as they continued winning in the run into the finals. The Crusaders on the other hand are always popular and were never too far from favouritism even though they had their fair share of injuries throughout the year. The Waratahs will host the Super Rugby final for the first time this year, and while they opened the $1.70 favourites when the finalists were decided, the Crusaders have been the team most wanted. The ratio of bets running the way of the Crusaders is 3:1, and money invested is also their way, running 2:1. Both sides were confidently backed to record big wins last week, and both delivered, but we are all hoping an Australian side can again win a Super Rugby title. That would give the Wallabies some sort of boost with the Rugby Championship due to kick off in a little over a moths time. New Zealand remain warm $1.57 pops ahead of South Africa at $4.00, with pretty good support for Australia at $4.50.


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The upsets continued last week when all 4 outsiders won the 4 AFL games of the split round, but nearly all weren’t a surprise as they were always well in the betting. It looked a tough round of games, and about from the Brisbane Lions, the other 3 matches saw favouritism switch several times when betting was ‘live’.

Normally upsets mean that the favourites are hard to sell the next round, but if anything it is the other way this week. Fremantle are at home to Carlton tonight, and most have put the Dockers’ shock loss to St Kilda down as an anomaly. The opening line of -34.5 didn’t last long, and punters are now taking -36.5.

Sydney return home as well after a loss, and most expect them to do a hatchet job on Essendon on Friday night. Lance Franklin kicked 5 goals against Essendon earlier in the season, and a similar haul this week would see him move into an odds on favourite (from $2.00) to win the Coleman Medal. The Swans line of -25.5 proved popular with an early bet of $10,000, and now the -26.5 is meeting with support.

Hawthorn have won their last 10 games at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania, and one person thinks that they will beat the Bulldogs easily there on Sunday. A massive bet of $20,000 was placed on the Hawks at -35.5 on Wednesday, and sustained support has seen that line move into -38.5.

While all of the ‘futures’ talk is centred around the flag, there is an intriguing battle going on at the other end of the table. St Kilda are $1.90 to run last, ahead of GWS at $2.30, then Melbourne at $8.50 and the Lions at $15. St Kilda must be some hope of beating the Suns based on their win over Fremantle, so there may well be a new favourite next week.


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The more talk about the off field drama’s at Manly only seems to inspire the Sea Eagles, and while other teams have been running hot and cold, Manly just continue to get the job done.  They are now into clear favourites to win the title at $3.50 ahead of Souths at $5.00, and the Roosters at $5.50. There have been 2 sides that have been flying under the radar recently, and both have been big movers in the betting. Melbourne touched $26 two months ago when Cooper Cronk broke his arm, but are now rock solid at $8.00, and have been the most popular side this week. The Cowboys had a couple of stumbles around the same time, touching $51, but are now $15. They have a pretty good run home and on current form look like they could finish in 6th position, and are more than capable of beating any side on their day.

The news this week has all been in and around the Wests Tigers, and punters have taken a huge set against them on Monday night. After opening at $1.45, Storm are into $1.35 today (Thursday) with rumours around that Brooks would be out of the Tigers side and also the Robbie Farrah saga continues to roll on. It is an important game for Melbourne as there has been money around this week for them at $3.00 to finish in the top 4, so they would need to win on Monday night.

Brisbane have managed just 2 wins from their last 11 visits to Brookvale, and all of the TattsBet NRL multi action this week starts with Manly to beat them on Friday night. The Sea Eagles are solid at $1.34, and there is also plenty coming for them conceding 8.5 points start.

Sunday’s match between Souths and Newcastle will be played in Cairns, and while the Knights have won 4 of their last 5 games, most expect the Bunnies to win. They lose a couple of players from the side who beat Canberra on Monday night, but that hasn’t deterred many as the line of -8.5 has been one of the best backed lines of the round.


Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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