Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - July 3

V8 Supercars

The V8’s will be in action in Townsville this week with 2 races over 125kms on Saturday and another of 250kms on Sunday.

Jamie Whincup was back in form in Darwin a few weeks ago winning 2 of the 3 races there and finishing 3rd behind Mark Winterbottom in the third race. When Whincup is in form we notice a surge in betting on the V8’s and that has been the case for race 1 in Townsville with over half of the early money on Whincup at $3.50.  Craig Lowndes is the second pick at $4.25 just ahead of Mark Winterbottom at $5.00. The others driver who have been quite popular are Shane Van Gisbergen at $12 and James Courtney at $15. The market for race 2 will open as soon as race 1 is over. 


Formula 1

Nico Rosberg leads the race for the Driver’s Championship but there has been a distinct trend away from Rosberg in this week’s British GP. Rosberg won this race last year but the preference has been for his Mercedes’ team-mate Lewis Hamilton ($1.67), and the Red Bull pair of Daniel Ricciardo ($21) and Sebastien Vettel ($34). Hamilton has won his national GP back in 2008 but has only finished on the podium there once since with a 2nd in 2010. Ricciardo is more popular than ever since his debut win in Canada but the Red Bulls were off the pace last time in Austria. Felipe Massa wound up on pole there but there have been very few takers for him this week at $21.


Superbikes

Two Superbike races will be run in Portimao on Sunday, and with Tom Sykes dominating in Misano two weeks ago, he is expected to do the same again this week. Sykes won both races, defeating Loris Baz and Marco Melandri in both, and he has been installed at $2.25 to win each race this week. Melandri is the second elect at $4.50 ahead of Sylvain Guintoli at $6.00 while Baz is at $6.50. Melandri won the first race here last year with the second going to Eugene Laverty who is $21 this week.


Golf

Rory McIlroy is the $12 to win the British Open which is only a couple of weeks away.

Adam Scott is the $13 second favourite, and then at $17 we have Tiger Woods, Henrik Stenson and Martin Kaymer. Tiger returned from injury last week in the Quicken Loans National and missed the cut, but there is money for him to win the British Open.

Kaymer is the $9.00 favourite to win the Open de France which gets under way on Thursday. The German has been in form this year, and is a previous winner of this event back in 2009. Graeme McDowell won last year and he is on the second line of betting at $13 ahead of Francesco Molinari at $17. Molinari is another with ‘form’ at the Le Golf National course having finished 2nd to Marcel Siem in 2012 and also tied for 2nd behind Miguel Angel Jiminez in 2010. Siem will also be going around again this year and is $34 in early betting.

The US PGA Tour event this week is the Greenbrier Classic, and it would be fair to see it is a little light on for big names. Jimmy Walker is the #13 favourite ahead of the always popular Bubba Watson, then it is out to $23 for Bill Haas, and a host of players at $29 including Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson. Jonas Blixt won last year but has been unwanted at $51 to go back to back, while the 2012 winner Ted Potter is $81. Scott Stallings won in 2011 and has attracted a few small bets at that quote.


Greyhounds

The Group 1 Winter Carnival Cup will be held at Albion Park on Thursday night, and the Victorian Awesome Project has been installed as the $2.00 favourite with TattsBet. He tore around the track in 29.82 last week but we expect plenty of support for local hope Flash Reality ($2.85) drawn ideally out in box 8. Flash Reality ran the fast heat but will need to be at his best to get across a quality field of speedsters. One of the big drawcards will be the Tassie champ Buckle Up Wes ($4.20). The ruling Australian Cup winner looked new to the track at his first look last week, and is always well backed in any race he contests. With 27 wins from 44 starts, it isn't hard to see why!


Rugby League

It is hard to believe that Cronulla scored one of their greatest ever wins last week when coming from 22 points down behind the Broncos. The Sharks trailed 16-0 at half time and were $15 with the line set at -23.5, and there was money for the minus! One would think that the win last week would generate some interest in them going forward, but punters are confident that know only will the Sharks lose this week, it will be by a big margin. The Roosters have been the anchor in nearly all multi’s at $1.07, and on Thursday morning bets of $9000 and $5000 came at the win price as well as another bet of $7000 at -22.5. The rest of the round has been relatively quiet, but that is always the case leading into an Origin match.

And speaking of Origin, there has been an early trend with the Blues to clean sweep the series. NSW are currently $2.45 in game 3, but twice as many bets have been placed on them as we have seen for Queensland. On face value it is probably good odds, and we do know the penchant for punters to back outsiders in origin matches. Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis and Jarryd Hayne share top billing at $9.00 in the first try scorer market while Jonathan Thurston is the $5.50 favourite to be the Man of the Match.


AFL

There were some major changes to the AFL flag betting following on from the round 15 results, and just when we thought that the top 4 and top 8 spots would be fairly close to being secured, it has all opened up. Hawthorn have lost Cyril Rioli for at least 8 weeks, and that is the only reason that they are $3.25 equal favourites with Sydney, and not the outright favourites. Fremantle had to struggle for a win over the Eagles but did firm into $4.25 as they are on track for a top 4 finish while Port blew from $5.00 to $6.50 after going down to the Crows. Geelong and Collingwood are right back in the race for the top 4, so they are solid at $11 and $21 respectively. The loss by the Suns has seen their final 8 price blow from $1.50 out to $1.75, but there has been a really good push for them to rectify that this week. The Suns return to Metricon to take on Collingwood, and have been $2.20 into $2.00 already, with a possibility that they may even run onto the ground as favourites.

Sydney travel across to Perth to play the West Coast, and there has been a solid push for the Eagles to beat the Swans. After opening at $4.25, the West Coast were into $3.50 by Thursday, and had also met with support at the line of +22.5.

Gary Ablett should have been amongst the votes again last week even though the Suns lost, and is now $1.65 to win another Brownlow. The whole Buddy Franklin experience on Sydney has turned into the positive, and he is now the one to beat for the Coleman Medal. Franklin is $3.50 ahead of leader Jay Schultz at $4.50.


Soccer

We are now at the quarter final stage of the World Cup, and it would be fair to say that the tournament so far has seen the bookies edge ahead in the battle with punters. Of the 56 matches so far, 33 have been won by the favourites, there have been 14 draws, while 9 underdogs have won. The round of 16 (8 matches) saw a staggering 5 draws played out before each of the favourites went on to progress, and that has meant that we still have a wide open event. Brazil remain the fav’s at $3.80 ahead of Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands at $5.00, but it is the Netherlands that have been easily the most popular since the tournament got under way. It is amazing that there were few takers at $34 before the first game, but there has been an avalanche for them since including one bet of $9000 at $7.00 prior to their last match . Looking at the quarter finals the Netherlands are the most likely side to progress as they are the shortest favourite, $1.40 to beat Costa Rica in normal time, so there is no sign of the support abating.