Daff's Weekly Round Up - 24 July 2014

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Glasgow Games

The TattsBet analysts have been working their way through markets for all of the Gold Medals at the Glasgow Games, and while information is a bit harder to track down on athletes from the Commonwealth as opposed to the Olympics, they have done a very good job.

As expected, some of the sports/events are a lot more popular than others, namely swimming, athletics, netball, the Rugby Sevens and the field hockey. TattsBet will be offering markets on individual games of the team sports, and these will have several other bet types open as well.

The swimmers will be in action first, and all of the talk over the past 2 years since the Olympics was surrounding James Magnussen. ‘The Missile’ opened as the $1.90 favourite to win the men’s 100m freestyle, just ahead of Cameron McEvoy at $1.95. Betting (and opinions) have been divided on this one, but Magnussen is now into a clear $1.75 public elect with McEvoy out to $2.05.

Sally Pearson has had an interrupted preparation but she is $1.35 to win gold again in the Womens 100m hurdles. On times and past from Pearson is entitled to be a lot shorter, but there is clearly some doubt over her. England’s Tiffany Porter is the second favourite at $3.25.

Some of the bigger names have elected to bypass the Games, and that has had an effect on the Men’s 100m final. Nickel Ashmeade of Jamaica is now a clear top pick at $1.60 ahead of Richard Thompson at $5.00, while Ashmeade’s Jamaican team-mate Jason Livermore is next in the market at $6.50.

There are few markets open on how Australia will perform, and one of those is how many gold we will win. The mark has been set at under/over 79.5 gold, and it is $1.90 either way. In the last 3 games Australia has won 74 (Delhi), 84 (Melbourne) and 82 in Manchester 12 years ago.

One gold we are expected to win is in the netball where one customer has placed $2000 on Australia at $1.50. Naturally New Zealand ($2.75) are the team to beat and have won at the last 2 Games. Australia did win the first 2 held, beating New Zealand, so it is easy to see why these countries dominate the betting.

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Everyone loves a champion and all eyes will be on the Meadows on Saturday night to see if Xylia Allen can break the Australian stake money record held by Miata. The record is currently $715,000, and Xylia Allen will eclipse that by just over $6000 if she wins as expected. The champ is $1.35 in the TattsBet fixed odds market after drawing the red box.

The Maturity Stake will also be held on the same program, and while the box draw has made it difficult for boom Victorian Hooksy, NSW representative Shoulders ($3.50) looks the one to beat after drawing well in box 2.

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Rory McIlroy was a noteable drifter in betting to win the British Open last week after having one bad round in the Scottish Open, and although he was under pressure at different stages over the final 2 rounds, he was simply too good. McIlroy was $12 to win the British Open before he played in Scotland, but was out to $16 before the start after an enormous plunge on Adam Scott, who firmed from $17 into $12.

Both of those players will be having this week off, as will a lot of others. The European Tour event is the Russian Open, and the field does lack depth. Rikard Karlberg is the $13 favourite ahead of Scott Jamieson ($15) and Matthew Nixon at $19.

The Canadian Open is the US PGA event, and several players have made the quick dash across the Atlantic to tee off on Thursday. Jim Furyk won the Canadian Open in both 2006 and 2007 and he shares favouritism at $13 along with Dustin Johnson. Matt Kuchar is just behind that pair at $15, followed by Graeme McDowell at $19. Aaron Baddeley is the shortest of the 8 Australians in the field while Nathan Green, a winner back in 2009, is one of the outsiders at $201.

TattsBet has a host of markets available on the Open, and many of these will be updated daily.

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Super Rugby

The Waratahs and the Crusaders are expected to make their way through to next week’s Super Rugby final. Both are warm favourites in this week’s knockout semi- finals, with the Crusaders the shortest of the pair. The Crusaders $1.30 to beat the Sharks even though the South Africans beat them earlier in the season, but on that occasion Dan Carter was out of the Kiwi side. Carter was a little off target with his kicking last week but punters can only see a Crusaders win, and a big one, as most of the support for them has been to beat the line of 7.5. The Waratahs have been the form side of the competition, and they are also expected to not only beat the Brumbies Saturday night, but also cover the line of 6.5. The Waratahs smashed the Brumbies early in the season, but if there is a chink in their armour it could be that they have had easy games in the run up to the finals, and also have had a week off. Many see that as a disadvantage! Betting on the final will open as soon as the second semi is over on Saturday night.

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If last week’s first half of the split round in AFL looked predictable, one can only wonder what will happen this week. St Kilda’s win over Fremantle was probably the biggest upset of the year, but we always see supporters take the big odds in a field of two. The biggest bet for the Saints was $250 at $14, while a handful of clients invested a total of $18 for St Kilda to win 40+ at $67. Three of the favourites won, but they were not able to cover the lines, so it will go down as one of the most bizarre rounds of the year.

It doesn’t get any easier this week with all 4 outsiders backed to win their games. Richmond have been really well backed from $2.70 into $2.40 to beat the West Coast in Perth on Friday night. The betting hasn’t moved on Q Clash 8 on Saturday night, Brisbane at $2.55 and the Gold Coast at $1.50, but it has been a hugely popular betting game. The money invested has been split between the 2 sides, but twice as many bets have been placed on the Lions than the Suns.

Hawthorn should welcome back key defender Josh Gibson for their clash against Sydney, but the Swans have been all the rage. After opening at $1.90 apiece, Sydney are now into $1.75 with the Hawks out to $2.08. Depending on the result, there could be a major shift in the flag betting where Sydney are currently $2.70 ahead of the Hawks at $3.50.

A potential finals berth might await the Crows if they can beat Collingwood on Sunday. The Magpies will be without Dane Swan, and coach Nathan Buckley has said there will be other changes, and punters have reacted. Adelaide have been $2.20 into $2.00, and have commanded 85% of the betting so far on this game, so it does appear that there will be little separating the 2 sides in the betting ring on Sunday.

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Wayne Bennett has been the news all week, and an interesting statistic has surfaced. Bennett has had 4 previous tenures that he has left, Canberra in 1987, Brisbane in 2008, St George Illawarra in 2014, and now Newcastle. In the first 3 instances Manly won the premiership in that year, so perhaps they might get the job done again this year? It wouldn’t come as a major surprise though as Manly now are the favourites at $4.00 ahead of the Roosters at $4.75.

There has been a big price move on the Newcastle v Roosters game on Friday night, but it wasn’t generated by money. The Knights were $2.95 with the Roosters at $1.40, and the line was set at 7.5, but when it was announced that Darius Boyd would be out indefinitely for the Knights, they blew out to $4.00, the Roosters firmed to $1.25, and the line moved to 12.5. Boyd is a key player, and the Knights come in off a bad loss to the Titans, but it is a big price for them at home.

The Broncos v Storm game takes on another dimension this week with the announcement that Brisbane coach Anthony Griffen would be replaced next year by Wayne Bennett. We were looking for a trend in the bets to gauge some sort of reaction one way or the other, but nothing has surfaced. Brisbane opened at $1.93, Melbourne at $1.88, and it has remained that way with bets split down the middle again.

New Zealand return home as outsiders this week when they host Manly on Sunday, and that is all most need to back the Warriors. They have an abysmal record when favourites, but have been heavily supported at $2.05 in a serious betting game. Manly are again embroiled in off field dramas around player contracts, they have been playing well up until this stage, but those talks have gone to a different level this week. It will be very interesting to see how they go when they venture to Auckland this week.

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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