Daff's Weekly Round Up - 17 July 2014

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Formula 1

Lewis Hamilton is only 4 points behind Nico Rosberg in the F1 Driver’s Championship, and is back into clear favourite at $1.60, with Rosberg at $2.25. That pair again dominate the betting in the upcoming German GP with Hamilton at $1.60, Rosberg at $2.65, then a hefty gap to Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas both at $17. The Hockenheim circuit has yielded 5 different winners from the races held there the past 5 years, with Sebastian Vettel winning there in 2013. Lewis Hamilton did win in 2011 and also won going back 6 years ago, so clearly the circuit holds no fears for him. Kimi Raikkonen is an outsider at $151 but is not expected to line up after crashing 2 weeks ago, and his likely replacement will be Jules Bianchi who drives for Marussia.

Greyhounds Racing

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The Meadows has an action packed program on this Saturday night, and there will be early fixed odds markets available Saturday on the 7 feature races that night. Four semi- finals of The Maturity will be available as well as the 3 heats of the Distance Championship. The big draw card there will be Xylia Allen who is certain to be a long odds on favourite in race 9, the 3rd heat. Following on from her last win at Sandown, the champion chaser is now a tick over $40,000 behind Miata as the highest earning prize money earner in history, and if she wins as expected this week, she has the chance to surpass that mark the following week.

Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

All eyes will be on Menangle on Saturday night when the curtain comes down on the career of Smoken Up. It would be fitting if Smoken Up would bow out as a winner, and although he is obviously some way short of what he was at his best, there is no doubting his popularity. The TattsBet fixed odds harness boys posted Smokin Up at $2.50 in the opening market, and he is the only one wanted. For the record, Ideal Scott is second pick at $3.80 narrowly ahead of Two Eye See and Freyberg both at $4.00.

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Can Tiger Woods win the British Open? The stats say no, but it seems that plenty think that Tiger can win his first Major in over 6 years this week as he has been the best backed behind Adam Scott who is into outright favourite. Tiger missed the cut at Congressional a few weeks ago at his first start back from a long layoff, but he has been practising at Royal Liverpool for over a week now, and claims that he is close to his best. No doubt his popularity has also got something to do with his price, we simply aren’t used to seeing Tiger at $21.

As expected, there is a wide spread of money on the Open as it often produces an upset, and apart from the 2 players mentioned, the best backed of the rest have been Justin Rose ($26-$15), Martin Kaymer ($21), Jason Day ($31) and Ricky Fowler ($34). Rose won the Scottish Open last weekend and that form-line is pretty solid as Phil Mickelson won the Scottish/British Open double last year.

TattsBet has a host of markets available on the Open, and many of these will be updated daily.

Basketball & Hoop 

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There was plenty going on in the world of sport last weekend, but one of the bigger stories was the move by LeBron James from Miami back to Cleveland. Normally the NBA market for next season wouldn’t be open this early but it understandably sparked plenty of interest. TattsBet opened the Cavaliers as the $5.00 favourites and there was an immediate reaction to that with some bets coming through at the $5.00. The other side to attract early interest has been San Antonio at $5.50. The Spurs are a popular side in this part of the world now thanks to the deeds of Paddy Mills, and they will stay in the headlines for the moment with the NBA trophy doing a tour of the Australia with Mills in the coming week.

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World Cup

The World Cup has been won by Germany, and a look back at the early markets reveals that the 2 teams to playoff, Germany and Argentina, were in fact 2nd and 3rd favourites (behind Brazil) since the first markets went up. $6.00 was the best price given for Argentina while $7.00 was the best available for the Germans. The final itself saw Germany backed from $2.20 into $2.05 to win in normal time, and they were backed from $1.62 into $1.55 to win outright, which of course they did. As was the trend throughout the tournament, the draw was the least popular of the 1X2 options (in normal time), and that option drifted from $3.25 out to $3.65. It was a tournament that saw bookmakers edge out the punters, and including the 3rds final, only 37 of the 64 favourites were able to win in normal time, there were 17 draws, and the outsider of the 2 teams won on 10 occasions. One point of interest was that from the quarter final stage onwards (16 games including the 3rd playoff), 15 favourites won outright, with the only upset being when the well backed Netherlands took the third place from Brazil.

It is now only a month until the start of the EPL, and Man City and Chelsea share favouritism their at $3.00 ahead of Manchester United ($5.00) and Arsenal ($7.00).

Rugby Union

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Super Rugby

The Waratahs and the Crusaders have the benefit of the first week off in Super Rugby, and that bonus has them at the head of the betting. The Waratahs are $2.15, just ahead of the Crusaders at $2.40, with the best of the rest being the Sharks at $7.00. The Sharks probably get the easier path through to the second week of the finals when they host the Highlanders in Durban early Sunday morning, and there is support for the Sharks through multis at $1.14, but the Kiwi’s did spring a big upset there in April. On that occasion the betting was similar with the Sharks 11 point favourites (-13 this time), and they went down 34-18. The Sharks did have a couple of late withdrawals on that occasion and the Highlanders have had a lot of travelling over the past month.

Saturday night’s elimination final between the Brumbies and the Chiefs is an interesting game. The Brumbies opened at $1.52, the Chiefs at $2.55, and the line at 4 points. This will be a rematch of last year’s Grand Final, and the Brumbies have been in from winning their last 7 matches at home. That is a huge advantage as there have been 85 ‘home’ teams win from the 120 matches played so far this season, a very good stat for Brumbies supporters. These two sides also met back in April, the betting was the same (Brumbies -4.0), and they prevailed 41-23, and that was with a player being sin binned. The Chiefs have been very poor on the road this season, failing to win in any of their 4 matches outside of New Zealand, and the Brumbies have won their last 3 matches in Canberra against the Chiefs.

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St Kilda have become the whipping boys of the AFL this season, and it is hard to believe that a side who were only one kick away from a flag a few years ago, and are now $1.14 to finish at the bottom of this year’s table. We are noticing each week that there are more prepared to bet against the Saints on the line that they receive, and it is similar this week. Although they will be at home, in the first 72 hours of betting, there has only been $1 (yes, that’s ONE Dollar) placed on them with 58.5 points start, whereas their opponents, Fremantle, have been heavily backed on their line. This week is part 1 of a split round, and nearly all of the matches look one sided. The 4 games next week are fabulous match-ups and there has already been a big move for Sydney to beat Hawthorn in Melbourne. Betting opened at $1.90 apiece, but the Swans are already into $1.75.

Premiership betting has been quitter this week, and most would be waiting to see what transpires in that big clash next week. As it stands, Sydney and Fremantle look on track for a top 2 finish, but that can all change if the Hawks get the money next week.

Rugby League

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Rugby League

After a few weeks of league where the favourites dominated, there were another couple of shocks last week. The Bulldogs have done a terrific job against the odds during the Origin Series, and chalked up another win as $2.90 outsiders when downing the Storm 6-4. Of the 128 matches played this season (excluding Origin), favourites have won only 77 of those games (60.15%), still the worst in the history of league betting. Those who take the minus lines have fared considerably worse with only 55 favourites (42.96%) covering the spread.

Not to be deterred, there has been big money for four favourites this week, North Queensland, Souths, Brisbane and Newcastle. The Cowboys have had an atrocious ‘away’ record this season, but have been $1.60 into $1.51 to beat Cronulla. No doubt most of that support would be because Paul Gallen is out of the Sharks side, but they have shown in the past that they can rise to the occasion!

Parramatta are a similar side to the Cowboys with their record away from home, but with Jarryd Hayne back this week, and at home, the Eels can improve on their record of 8 wins from their last 9 at Parramatta. Punters view it differently however as Souths have been $1.50 into $1.45, and look likely to firm further.

The Broncos have only won 3 of their last 6 matches at Suncorp, and are on a shortish backup, but there has been a good push for them to put away a much improved Warriors outfit on Saturday night. After opening at $1.75, Brisbane are already into $1.68, and if Sam Tomkins is ruled out of the Warriors, then that price will also disappear.

Finally, much has been said and written about Alex McKinnon, and this round has been dedicated to assisting Alex and his family in going forward. It is clearly a big match for Newcastle, and they take on a Gold Coast Titans side who have been under intense scrutiny on and off the field. The Knights opened at $1.33, and have continued to collapse in the market all week, now $122, and the line has moved from 10 points to 12 points. The first decent NRL bet of the week was $5000 for Newcastle at -10 ($1.90), and there is no sign of that move coming to an end. The Titans have been able to win a few matches this season when seemingly no hopers, so maybe they are good value at the $4.25?

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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