Daff's Weekly Round Up

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Formula 1

Lewis Hamilton didn't start favourite in the British GP at the weekend but he was still able to win an action packed race and is now back as the top pick to win the Drivers Championship. Hamilton is just 4 points behind team-mate Nico Rosberg but is the $1.60 fav ahead of Rosberg at $2.25. The next race will be in Germany in 2 weeks time and Hamilton has opened at $1.55 ahead of Rosberg at $2.65 with the improving Valtteri Bottas next in line at $17.

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The bikes will be in action this week in Germany and while Marc Marquez has completely dominated the season to date winning all 8 races, he is still at a backable quote this week. Marquez is $1.44 in the early market ahead of Dani Pedrosa at $5.50, then Valentino Rossi ($6.50) with Jorge Lorenzo the other hope at $7.50.Marquez won the corresponding race last year but both Pedrosa and Lorenzo were out through injury. Pedrosa has good firm on the circuit having been placed in 2009 and 2010 before winning in 2011 and 2012, Lorenzo was placed 2nd in those 2 wins and he was victorious in 2010, so it is understandable that many rate them highly this week. The big question is though, can Marquez continue on his winning way and will he win every race this year?

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The Superbikes will be making a quick dash across the Atlantic this week to race in the USA at Laguna Seca. Tom Sykes won the first race in Portugal as a $1.80 last Sunday and Jonathon Rea won the 2nd race. Laguna Seca was used for only the first time by the Superbikes last year and Sykes won race 1 while Eugene Laverty won the 2nd. Sykes is the favourite to win both races this week ahead of Marco Melandri, Rea, Loris Baz and Laverty.

Greyhounds Racing

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Xylia Allen has opened as a raging $1.30 favourite to win the McKenna Memorial at Sandown tonight (Thursday), and after coming up with the inside box it is hard to see her being beaten. We have noticed that is quite popular to couple up the 'good things' in the pre-post markets with the popular sports events on, and this does look like a free hit with those multi's. TattsBet will also have early fixed odds markets open on the heats of the Maturity at the Meadows on Saturday night and they will be available shortly after scratching time.

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The British Open is only a week away and there hasn't been any major movement to the market there with Rory McIlroy the $12 favourite ahead of Adam Scott at $13, and a host of players at $17 including Tiger Woods.

A lot of the bigger names will be having this week off, but a few have arrived early in the UK and will take part in the Scottish Open. Phil Mickelson is in the field and is a $23 pop after creating history last year. Mickelson won the Scottish Open (at Castle Stuarts) and became the first player to back up and with the British Open the next. It is a good field this year with McIlroy the favourite at $13 ahead of Justin Rose ($14), then Mickelson and Luke Donald at $23. Donald is also a previous winner in 2011 but that was played at Inverness, with this year's event to be played at Royal Aberdeen.

Jordan Spieth is the $10 favourite to make it back to back wins in the John Deere Classic on the US Tour. Veteran Steve Stricker is on the second line at $12 and he has a rather impressive record in this event having won in 2009,2010 and 2011 before Zach Johnson won in 2012. Johnson is also in the field this year and is close behind at $13. In an effort to attract a stronger field the PGA have made a charter flight available to those playing in the British Open, and it will leave soon after the finish of the John Deere on Sunday night.

Rugby Union

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Super Rugby

The final round of the Super Rugby season will be played this week, and there still several spots to be decided.

The Chiefs must win in Auckland on Friday night, and while they did put it altogether against the Hurricanes last week, the early money has been for the Blues who have firmed from $1.95 into $1.90 equal favourites. The Chiefs have won their last 6 matches against the Blues, winning 32-20 in Hamilton earlier in the season, and if they are anywhere near their best then they should get the money.

A losing bonus point to the Crusaders will be enough for them to secure the NZ Conference , but a bonus point win against the Highlanders will put them on track for an all important 2nd spot on the ladder. The Crusaders are hot $1.22 favourites to beat the Highlanders at $4.25, with the line at 9.5. The Crusaders are currently $3.00 to win the title behind the Waratahs at $2.00, and ahead of the Sharks at $4.50, but with the Sharks also in the mix for that second spot on the ladder, then both this match and the potentially the Stormers v Sharks match take on added importance.

The Reds have had a woeful season and will be at home to the Waratahs on Saturday night. On form the Waratahs must be short, but they have already locked in a home final in two weeks time as well as a week off. The Reds are only playing for pride, and their stocks improved greatly when it was announced on Thursday that Israel Folau was out with a corked thigh. There was one early bet of $5000 on the Waratahs at -7.0 ($1.90), and while that can still happen, the loss of Folau is a big one.

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Gary Ablett has been the news all week since he unfortunately dislocated his shoulder in the win by the Suns over Collingwood last Saturday, and with his season over he has been displaced as Brownlow favourite for the first time in several months. Ablett was $1.60 prior to the last round, and the TattsBet AFL analysts had him sitting on 24 votes, 8 ahead of Josh Kennedy and Scott Pendlebury who were $7.00. Pendlebury is the new favourite at $3.25 ahead of Kennedy at $3.50, then Ablett at $5.00. Ablett may still have a big enough lead to hang on and win his 3rd Brownlow as if his lead is as big as we claim, then the others will have to feature prominently is the votes over the final 7 rounds.

Last weekend’s results meant some severe changes to the flag market. Sydney continue on their winning way are now $3.00, with Fremantle into second favourites at $3.75. Hawthorn’s loss to North Melbourne has seen them ease to $4.00 but the big losers out of the weekend were Port Adelaide, out to $8.00 (from $6.50) after a loss to Essendon. Port are now on the cusp of missing a top 4 position, and that could well end the hopes of another flag. Geelong are pushing for that spot and are into $9.00 while North Melbourne are coming as well, now $21.

There could be several season defining matches on this week, and we kick off with an important one on Friday night. Adelaide are all of a sudden back in play for a finals berth and have been really well backed at $2.20 to beat Hawthorn at $1.67. The Gold Coast are still $1.60 to make the 8 but most would have pencilled this week’s match against the Bulldogs in Cairns as a win for the Suns. With Ablett out, the Suns are still $1.53 to win that game but there has been solid support for the Bulldogs at $2.50. The woes for the Brisbane Lions continue with Tom Rockcliff on the sidelines again, and there has been a good push for the West Coast to beat the Lions including one bet of $4500 at -13.5.

Rugby League

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Rugby League

Well State of Origin is over and done with for another year, and punters confidently predicted that Queensland would win the 3rd game.

The Maroons firmed from $1.62 into $1.50 in the 48 hours leading up to the kick-off which was in stark contrast to what we had seen over the past 2 weeks. The line of -4.5 was also well backed led up by a bet of $9000, with a win by 13+ for Queensland firming from $3.75 into $3.00. Punters did however slip up in a couple of the more popular exotic bet types with Cameron Smith ($26) not as popular as normal when scoring the first try, and Corey Parker pretty much unwanted at $21 to be the Player of the Match.

This week’s games have been understandably quiet leading up to Origin, and it has been the same today as we all wait to see who will line up this week. No doubt there will be some changes to the sides, and we let people know on our twitter account (@tatts _sports) as soon as we find anything out.

Premiership betting changed a lot last week with more upsets, and one customer couldn’t have seen the loss by the Roosters to the Sharks coming his way. He placed $13,000 on the Roosters to take the title at $4.25 last Friday, but they are now out to $4.50, behind Manly who head the charts at $4.00. Souths disappointed again and have drifted to $5.50, sharing that line with the Bulldogs who scored an upset win over Manly.

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After a month of fantastic football, Germany and Argentina will play off for the World Cup on Monday morning Australian time.

To date there has been 62 matches which has seen 37 favourites salute, there have been 16 draws, and the remaining 9 matches were won by the outside team. Argentina have been the 2nd favourites to win the Cup since betting opened over a year ago, and the biggest bet for them was $10,000 at $5.50 which was placed in February. They were $5.50 in the original market and top price given was $6.00. It was very similar with Germany who opened at $6.00, and touched $7.00 early in the tournament, and Brazil were the favourites all the way through. There have been several bets of $1000 placed on Germany over the course of betting, there were 2 bets of $2000 at $5.00 late last week, and there was another of $8,000 for them at $1.72 after they disposed of Brazil in the semi- final. The outright market now has Germany at $1.63 with Argentina at $2.25, while in the 90 minutes of play market Germany have already firmed from $2.20 into $2.15 with both the draw and Argentina at $3.30. There will be a host of live bet options open throughout the final, and the same will apply to the 3rd playoff match between Brazil and the Netherlands on Sunday morning.

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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