Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - May 15

Golf

Sergio Garcia is the $5.50 favourite to win the Open de Espana this week, and on recent form the Spaniard deserves to be that short. Catalunya Resort will be the course used this year, and previous winner Francesco Molinari (2012) is the second pick at $14 ahead of veteran Miguel Angel Jiminez at $23. Jiminez recently won at his debut on the Champions Tour, but can still mix it with the best on the main tours as well.

The PGA Tour event this week is the Byron Nelson Classic and will be played at the Four Seasons Resort in Irving, Texas. It is a wide open affair with Jordan Spieth the $12 favourite just ahead of Matt Kuchar ($13), and then a gap to Keegan Bradley, Martin Kaymer and Jimmy Walker, all at $21. Kaymer returned to form with a vengeance last week when he won the Players Championship, and although he was virtually unwanted in that, he is easily the best backed this week of the main ones in the market. Harris English ($34), Marc Leishman ($34) and Brandt Snedeker ($41) are others who have been backed at longer odds. Sang-Mon Bae is the defending champion and is at $67, while 2012 winner Jason Dufner has only attracted a few small bets at $34.

MotoGP

The domination by Marc Maqruez this season in motoGP has seen betting slow down a lot as we go to Le Mans this weekend. Marquez opened at $1.40 and most of the business on the race has been with Marquez through multi’s. Jorge Lorenzo is the second pick at $5.50 ahead of Dani Pedrosa at $7.00 and Valentino Rossi at $9.00. Lorenzo has had an ordinary start to this season, but his form in the French GP is exemplary. He has won four of the last five races held there, but did finish down the track last year when Dani Pedrosa defeated Marquez.

V8 Supercars

There will be three V8 Supercar races at Barbagallo, Perth, this weekend and money has been spread amongst the top dozen drivers in the market. Saturday will see two 100km races, followed by a 200km race on Sunday. Jamie Whincup is the $3.75 favourite to win race 1 ahead of Mark Winterbottom ($4.50), Craig Lowndes ($6.00) and Scott McLaughlin ($8.00). Winterbottom goes to Perth in good form having won the last two races of the four races held in Auckland a few weeks ago, but the top two at the head of betting having the form in the west. Craig Lowndes has accumulated 14 wins in Perth. However only two of those have been since 2000, whereas Whincup has 11 podiums from his last 12 starts there - five wins, four seconds and two thirds. Whincup will be looking for wins to climb back up the drivers title board, and with form like that, this might be his week!

Soccer

The FA Cup final will be played in the early hours of Sunday morning, and Arsenal are the hot favourites at $1.44 to win the Cup inside normal time. Hull are $7.25, and while there have been lots of bets for Hull, they are all small. Arsenal have been the anchor in a lot of the big sports multi’s for the weekend, but similar to the recent A-League final, there are no takers for the draw at $4.25 inside 90 minutes. The market for next season’s  EPL title has been opened as well, with Man City the $2.80 favourites ahead of Chelsea at $3.25, and then Man Utd and Liverpool at $6.00. There has been a sprinkling of early support for both Tottenham ($51) and Everton ($101) at longer odds.

Squads have been announced for the World Cup this week and there have been a host of new player related markets opened by TattsBet. Brazil remains at $3.25 to win the Cup ahead of Argentina at $5.00, Germany $6.00 and Spain at $7.00. Italy has been backed to take out close to $100,000 at $21 over the past fortnight, while this week alone, there has been three separate bets of $2000 for Brazil.

Super Rugby

There are only six rounds of Super Rugby to go, but it appears as though we are no closer to knowing the six sides that will play off for this year’s title.

The Crusaders have been the favourites for two weeks now and are $3.25, but there is a log jam behind them. At $5.00 we have the Chiefs and the Brumbies, the Sharks are $5.50 and the Waratahs are $6.50. All spots are still up for grabs, so every game is important, as are bonus points.

The Hurricanes are also in the mix at $15, and have been one of the form sides of the comp recently. They are at home on Friday night and there has been a really good early push for them to beat the Highlanders. After opening at $1.36, the Canes moved into $1.34 and there was plenty of money for them also conceding 7 points start. The Hurricanes have won five of their last six and return from South Africa, and although the Highlanders have won four of their last five, they struggled to beat the Lions last week.

The Crusaders have hit their straps and they are really popular at $1.28 to beat the Sharks this week, making it five wins on the trot. However it would be obvious that the Sharks should offer a lot more resistance than the Reds did last week and they look very good value at $3.60 The Sharks have lost on all seven trips to Christchurch before, so the support for the Kiwi side is understandable, but this could be a low scoring match and that should allow the Sharks to be competitive.

The Reds v the Rebels game at Suncorp on Saturday night has been billed as the battle for the Australian cellar-dwellers. The Reds have been awful this year and line up as the $1.59 favs. They have lost their last five matches, but the Rebels haven’t fared much better with only one win from their past five. The Rebels have also lost all matches away from home this season, so again it is easy to see why most are happy to back the Reds to win. Prior to their last start effort against the rampant Crusaders, the Reds two previous losses at home were both by just three points to the Force and the Brumbies, a form-line which should see them get home over the Rebels.

Rugby League

The Canterbury Bulldogs have been flying under the radar to some degree, and have now racked up six wins in a row. TattsBet hadn’t seen any real support for them to win the title and their price has been coming in based on form, not money. That changed this week however as the Bulldogs attracted the biggest single premiership bet of the season so far, $16,000 at $6.50, and they are now the $6.00 third favourites behind the Roosters ($5.00) and Souths ($5.50).

Favourites fared very well last week with 7 of the 8 winning, and of those 6 won by 13+. The only upset was Penrith who thrashed Newcastle as $2.40 outsiders. There are some closely priced games this week, but the two Friday night favourites have meet with a lot of support. Souths have been really solid at $1.48 to beat Melbourne, and there has been an avalanche of money for Brisbane to knock over the Titans. It looks as though Sam Thaiday will be out of the Broncos side, but they have been $1.45 into $1.33 to win on the back of the news that Albert Kelly, Kevin Gordon and Ash Harrison are all out for the Titans. Two bets of $5000 were taken for the Broncos on Thursday at $1.35 and $1.33, and in a 24 hour period just over $20,000 arrived for Brisbane and only $200 for the Titans. Manly is another favourite targeted early.  The Sea Eagles take on Newcastle on Monday night and the opening $1.40 didn’t last long, quickly firming to $1.33, and the signs are there that they will be even shorter come game day.

AFL

Many might think that there is no place for Aussie Rules on a Thursday night, but judging by the response from TattsBet customers, there is a need as it has been a terrific betting match. The Crows have had an indifferent start to the season, and really need a big scalp, and they get Tex Walker back. Tex’s comeback features as one of our specials this week, the TattsBet Twist. $5.00 is available for Tex to kick three goals or more, normal conditions apply. While there have been twice as many bets for the Crows to win, the bigger money has been for Collingwood. The fluctuations have been $1.53 into $1.45, and back out to $1.50 today with another push for the Crows at $2.75. Some of the bets for the Pies include $6000 at $1.47, $7500 at -12.5, another $5000 at the same line, and also $6000 -13.5.Collingwood are yet to impress flag punters as they are still $9.00 and the least popular of any side under $21.

The ASADA issue has resurfaced this week, and every time that happens there is money for the side due to play Essendon. Sydney have been $1.45 into $1.38 to beat the Bombers at Etihad on Friday night, and although Lance Franklin seemed to have the yips in front of goal last week, he has an imposing record when playing Essendon. In 10 matches against the Bombers he has averaged five goals, a terrific average in the modern day version of the game, and although it is for a new side, he always seemed to play well under the roof at Etihad.

A lot of questions will be answered in Perth on Saturday night. Fremantle are teetering at the moment, have suffered some defeats away from home, and more importantly a shock loss to North Melbourne in Perth. The Dockers touched $3.75 to win the flag a little over a month ago, and the expectation was that they would finish top two, giving them home finals. There must be a big question mark over that now, and Geelong travel across the Nullarbor with punters right behind them. After opening at $2.10. Geelong had closed into equal fav’s at $1.90 by Wednesday night, and with 80% of the early money for them, they may even run onto the ground as favourites. A win would be a bonus for the Cats, a loss for the Dockers will put them under enormous pressure going forward.