Daff's Weekly Round Up


Rugby League

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Rugby League

The Four Nations concept had its share of critics before the competition got under way but it would be fair to say we have been treated to some fantastic, and controversial, football. England can probably count themselves as unlucky with a disallowed try against Australia which cost them victory. The ‘no try’ was a big result for one TattsBet client who placed $30,000 on the Kangaroos to win at $1.30, but another fell well short with a bet also of $30,000 on Australia at -9.5 ($1.90).

All four sides can still make the final, but Australia are back into $1.85 favourites ahead of New Zealand ($2.10), England at $11, and Samoa need a lot to go right, but are still there at $67. This week’s matches are open with New Zealand at $1.47 to beat England ($2.70) with the opening line being 6.5, and in Sunday’s match in Wollongong  Australia have opened at $1.08 to neat Samoa ($8.00), with the line set at 20.5. As soon as that match is concluded the betting will open on the final.




Rugby Union

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Rugby Union

TattsBet will have betting on all nine of the International tests and friendlies this week, but the intriguing match is going to be Wales v the Wallabies. Betting has opened with Wales at $2.40 and Australia at 1.55, and a line of 3.0 points, and most of the early money has been for Wales to win. The Wallabies have won their last 9 matches against the Welsh, with 5 of those being in Cardiff, but 6 of the last 7 have been won by 7 points or less. While Australia did beat a Barbarians side last week, they have still only won 2 of their past 7 matches, and Wales did win all 3 ‘home’ games in the Six Nations in 2014.

England host New Zealand at Twickenham, and although they open as the $3.75 outsiders (New Zealand $1.26), they must be rated some chance, particularly with the 7.5 points start. The All Blacks won the 3 match test series in NZ in June 3-0, but England were not disgraced in that series, covering the allocated lines in the first 2 games. The All Blacks have won 13 of the last 14 between the two sides, but it is worth pointing out that the only win for England in that period was in 2012, at Twickenham, and the Poms won 38-21 when 14 point underdogs!




Formula 1 Photo

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Formula 1

With only two Formula I races remaining, Lewis Hamilton has crept out to a 24 point lead over Nico Rosberg, and providing Hamilton keeps out of trouble he should justify his quote of $1.13 and win the title.

Brazil is the host nation this week before the season finale in Abu Dhabi in 2 weeks time. Hamilton has now won 5 races in a row and is $1.55 to win again in Brazil, with Rosberg at $3.00, then Daniel Ricciardo at $12 and Valterri Bottas at $15. Hamilton has struggled in Brazil in the past with only one podium finish there in the past 5 years, and that was a 3rd in 2009. Sebestian Vettel won last year and also won in 2010, and although Vettel has had a horror year he did drive very well in the US F1 after having to start from pit lane. There has been some support for him this week at $21.




motoGP Photo

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MotoGP

The final motoGP race for the season will be held in Valencia on Sunday, and Marc Marquez is the opening $1.65 favourite ahead of Jorge Lorenzo ($3.50), Valentino Rossi ($5.50) and Dani Pedros ($7.50). Marquez has equalled the record of most wins in a season (12 wins), and now holds that title with Michael Doohan, so while the season has been realistically over for several races, he will be keen to get that total to 13 wins. The Spaniard could only finish 3rd here last year behind Lorenzo and Pedrosa, but was back in form last start in Malaysia. Lorenzo has 2 wins around the Valencia circuit having also won on 2010, while Pedrosa also has 2 wins in 2009 and 2011. Rossi had form here in the early 2000’s but he had form everywhere then. However the diminutive Italian has really finished the season with a bang having won 2 races now, and wasn’t far away when 2nd to Marquez in Malaysia.




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Golf

The WGC-HSBC Champions is another co-sanctioned event of the European and US PGA Tours, and got under way in Shanghai this morning (Thursday). Justin Rose was the $12 favourite ahead of Adam Scott ($16), Sergio Garcia ($17) and Henrik Stenson ($21), but there were a host of players who met with really good support. Adam Scott wasn’t one of those even though he was the second pick in the betting, probably due to the fact that he has rarely been sighted recently. There was a sprinkling of support for Ian Poulter at $61. Poulter did win this event in 2012 but it was played at Mission Hills that year, the only time away from Sheshan, however he did finish 2nd behind Dustin Johnson last year.

The Sandersons Farms Championship is the other US Tour event, and Nick Watney is the $19 favourite in a wide open betting event. There has been early money for Robert Streb ($23), Ben Martin ($26), Russell Knox ($29) and Brendan Steele ($34), and a little bit of interest has also been shown in defending champ Woody Austin at $126.




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Cricket

Those betting against Australia in any cricket match recently would have had their betting banks bolstered, and it happened again on Wednesday night. The first T/20 match in the Australia v South Africa series saw the Aussies go in as red hot $1.48 favourites again, and that was after opening at $1.50. South Africa got out to $2.65 before the match started, and they had a pretty easy victory in the finish. Not to be deterred, there has been an early move for Australia in game 2 which will be played at the MCG on Friday night. After opening at $1.75, the Aussies were quickly into $1.68 with South Africa out to $2.20.

The first test at the GABBA against India is still a month away but TattsBet has opened the betting on that match. The conditions are expected to suit, so Australia have opened at $1.55 ahead of the draw at $4.00 and India at $5.50. This is a 4 test series and Australia are $1.30 to win the series with the draw at $5.50 and India lengthy priced outsiders at $8.00. As we all know they do struggle when playing away from the sub-continent but it does seem pretty good odds for India given the form that Australia displaced in their series against Pakistan.




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Horse Racing

The Melbourne Cup has been run and won for another year and it certainly wasn’t a major shock with Protectionist always well in the betting. The German import was $31 in the opening market many months ago, and the biggest bet at that quote was  a bet of $1000. Protectionist  momentarily touched favouritism at $6.00 after his fast closing 4th in the Herbert Power but he spent the major part of the last week at around the $8.00 mark, which is what he was at the start of the race. There were a lot of big bets landed when he won, with $6000 and $5000 taken on Sunday at $8.00, and two $5000 bets taken in the hour leading up to the start, both at $8.50. It was a record turnover in the fixed odds book, with the biggest bet for the day being $40,000 on Admire Rakti at $6.00. Mutual Regard was a huge go on the day ($12.00-$9.00), and was the runner to attract most individual bets, narrowly ahead of 3rd placegetter Who Shot Thebarman.

The Darley Classic has generated plenty of talk as the final day of the Flemington carnival approaches, and there looks to be plenty of chances on paper, punters see it as a 2 horse race. Chautauqua has been $2.50 into $2.20, and the only other runner to attract any serious support has been second favourite Lankan Rupee at $5.50. Even Buffering, the ‘peoples champion’ has been hard to sell, easing from $11 out to $13, with many thinking that the inside barriers will be no advantage by the time that race comes around on Saturday.




Harness Racing

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Harness Racing

Terror To Love will be trying to create history in next Tuesday’s NZ Trotting Cup by making it 4 wins in a row in the Cup. The NZ Cup is a standing start race, but Terror To Love has always been able to handle the stand starts, and not surprisingly has been clearly the most popular runner with TattsBet punters since betting opened over 2 months ago. The Kiwi champ is currently at $2.80 but there has been money for Christen Me ($3.30) after he drew well in 7, and that will allow him plenty of room to settle down wherever he likes.

Australia will have 2 representatives in the race, For A Reason ($7.00) and Seel N Print ($13).  The Aussie pair have drawn favourably in 1 and 2 , with Seel N Print to start from the pole position. Seel N Print has plenty of experience with standing starts having contested a lot of them when trained in Western Australia while For A Reason will be facing the tapes for the first time. That is a minus but he has a lot of class, a good draw, and is in form as shown by his last start win.




Greyhounds Racing  

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Greyhounds

The Melbourne Cup heats for greyhounds get under way at Sandown next week, and 4 of those prospective runners will go around in The Shootout tonight. The Shootout has been a wonderful race down through the years, and was won by Xylia Allen last year. Recent Adelaide Cup winner Allen Deed was put out of business early in the Topgun at his last start, but has been installed as the $1.60 favourite with most thinking the small field will suit him. That is correct, but there isn’t a lot between all 4 runners on recent form. Brilliant Queensland youngster Iva Vision ($5.50) ran a fast time in a recent Sandown win, and the Darren McDonald trained Awesome Project ($3.50) is another that will appreciate the small field. Unfortunately Banjo Boy has been scratched and replaced by Oakvale Destiny ($6.00), and although she will probably be at the tail of the field early, she does have a withering burst of speed when in form. It looks certain to be a great race.








Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager


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