Daff's Weekly Round Up


Rugby League

View Full Betting Markets


Rugby League

The Canterbury Bulldogs were $41 to win this year’s title when the finals series got under way, and plenty think that they can defy history and win on Sunday night. No team has ever won the title coming from 7th spot, and as we know to do that you have to win 4 sudden death matches. The Bulldogs have won three, and it seems as though the upset win by Hawthorn last week has sparked up the levels of betting for the outsiders as the move for the Dogs this week has been $3.60 into $3.10, and now back out slightly to $3.25. The opening quote for the Bulldogs late last year was $13, they were in as short as $5.50 in May, and as mentioned $41 at the start of the finals. The biggest bet for them was $16,000 at $6.50 in mid-May, while there are a couple of interesting premiership doubles alive with Hawthorn, one of $2000 at $24, another of $1000 also at $24, and one of $100 in the first week of finals at $92. The Hawthorn/Souths combo has some big bets alive as well including $2000 at $27 (March), $2000 at $17 (May) and $1000 at $13. Souths opened last October at $7.00, with the longest price being $8.00 in May. Some of the bigger bets for Souths leading into this week include $5500 at $7.00 (May), $6000 at $5.00 (August), $10,000 at $3.50 (August) and $10,000 last week at $2.60. The first big bet this week was a $10,000 wager for Souths at $1.31, and that was followed up on Wednesday by a $25,000 bet at $1.40.

Not surprisingly Sam Burgess and Greg Inglis are the standouts in betting for the Clive Churchill Medal. Burgess was the opening favourite at $4.50 but was quickly into $4.00 while Inglis is also a firmer, into $4.50 after opening at $5.00. Most of the major playmakers for Souths have been backed, but the Bulldogs players have been ignored apart from James Graham ($8.00). The Englishman has had an outstanding finals series and if the Dogs are to win it would be expected that Graham would play a major role.

Apart from all of the usual options open to bet live throughout the game, TattsBet will also be betting live on the Churchill Medal.



AFL Generic Photo

View Full Betting Markets


AFL

The big Grand Final plunge on Sydney came unstuck when Hawthorn raced away with an emphatic 63 point victory. In a huge betting game, the Swans started as $1.50 favourites (in from $1.67), while the best price for Hawthorn was $2.65, and that was at kick-off. Josh Kennedy was one of the few Swans players who was ignored at $34 to be the first goal scorer, while Luke Hodge did start the match as the shortest of the Hawthorn players at $13 to win the Norm Smith Medal, but he was another that didn’t really capture the imagination of punters. Betting on the run in the Norm Smith was more competitive than the match itself with several players being favourite at different stages, and in the last quarter it was a real battle between Hodge, Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell. The odds assessors got it right as there was only 1 vote separating that trio when the votes were gathered.

So with this season over, we can focus on next season now! Hawthorn have opened at $4.50, just ahead of Sydney and Port Adelaide at $5.00, and Fremantle at $8.00. There is a lot of talk at the moment in regards to player movement, and if Port Adelaide can get the important signing of Paddy Ryder, then they will probably become outright favourites. Outside of the three favourites, there has been early interest also in Geelong ($15), Adelaide ($21) and Carlton at $41.

Next week we have a closer look at the overall results for both the AFL and NRL seasons.



Rugby Union

View Full Betting Markets


Rugby Union

It is the last round of the Rugby Championship this week, and although there is only pride at stake, it appears as though the best match-ups have been saved until last. South Africa will host New Zealand in Johannesburg while Argentina will host Australia in Mendoza, Argentina. The All Blacks opened the slightest of favourites at $1.80 with South Africa at $2.00, but the money invested has been split right down the middle, so punters see it as we do, too hard to call!

Argentina were comprehensively beaten by New Zealand last week but there is little doubt that they would have had an eye on this upcoming match as one they could win. The Wallabies are $1.52 with Argentina at $2.50, the line set at 4.5 points, and there has been enough money for Argentina to suggest that Aussie rugby fans think the Pumas will chalk up their first win of the Rugby Championship season.

The ITM Cup in NZ is drawing to a close with this week being the second last round before the finals. Just a reminder that we bet live on all of the televised ITM Cup games and will also cover the two Rugby Championship matches Sunday morning.



Formula 1 Photo

View Full Betting Markets


Formula 1

Lewis Hamilton won the Singapore GP two weeks beating Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo, and with Nico Rosberg missing out on any points, Hamilton is into $1.50 to win the Drivers Championship. Hamilton is the $1.70 favourite to win this week at Suzuka, Japan, with Rosberg at $2.75, and Ricciardo at $8.00. There has been good early support for Vettel at $13, and while he did show a return to form when finishing second in Singapore, he has won 3 of the last 4 GP’s in Japan. Looking back over the form it is worth noting that Rosberg has never been placed at Suzuka, so it will be interesting to see how he goes this week.



V8 Supercars Photo

View Full Betting Markets


V8 Supercars

Bathurst is still a week away but this year’s race is shaping as the busiest ever for TattsBet.

We mentioned last week that a bet of $3000 had been placed on Carr 22 (Courtney/Murphy) at $6.00, and the price move into $5.00 hasn’t really stemmed the flow as that is now being taken. Car 1, the race favourite driven by Whincup/Dumbrell touched $3.50 at one stage, but they are back into $3.40, while Carr 888 (Lowndes/Richards) has been steady at $5.00. All cars under $101 have been met with support, most hoping for either wet weather or engine problems, both of which can always happen. TattsBet will have extensive betting coverage on the big race, and will bet live throughout.



Superbikes Photo

View Full Betting Markets


Superbikes

Magny-Cours will host the Superbikes on Sunday, the second last meeting of the season. Marco Melandri won both races held in Jerez at the last meeting, and he defeated Sylvain Guintoli in both races. Chaz Davies finished 3rd in race 1, and Tom Sykes was 3rd in race 2, and as is normally the case, Sykes is the opening favourite for the 2 races this week.  He was victorious in both races last year, and there has been interest in him at $2.25 to win each race on Sunday, but the same applies to Melandri at $4.00. Guintoli is clearly in form and did finish 2nd in both races here last year, but oddly there have been very few takers for him at $4.50.

 



Generic Golf Ball Photo

View Full Betting Markets


Golf

The US PGA Tour season is over, and the new season gets under way next week, so the focus is firmly on the European Tour this week.

The Ryder Cup ended up being a one sided affair, and while most of the starters in the Ryder Cup have opted out this week, Rory McIlroy will be in action in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. This pro-am event will be played at 3 courses, St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns, and McIlroy did finish second in this event behind Mchael Hoey in 2011. As expected, McIlroy has been heavily supported, but there has been money for 2010 winner Martin Kaymer ($15), Charl Scwartzel ($23) and the in-form Joost Luiten at $26. There is a strong Aussie contingent of 12 teeing off , but they are all at the bottom end of the market.



Generic Photo of Horse Racing

View Full Betting Markets


Horse Racing

Spring Carnival racing is well and truly underway with fantastic Group 1 racing this weekend in both Sydney and Melbourne. Most of the support cards will have some say in many of the features coming up, but the focus at the moment is clearly on the Cups. Victorian stayer Spillway has been $4.80 into $4.60 to win The Metropolitan at Randwick, but Chris Waller is so dominant in any of these races these days that his stayer Junoob has been heavily supported from $5.50 into $4.80.

The Waller juggernaut is expected to role on into The Epsom where the champion trainer has three of the first four in the market, Royal Descent ($4.40), He’s Your Man ($6.00) and last year’s winner Boban at $6.50. All have met with support but the Epsom is a tough mile, and there has been good money for others including Ninth Legion ($11) and Hooked ($14).

Many of the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup fancies will be in action in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, and the ex Kiwi mare Lucia Valentina has been $6.50 into $5.00 in the biggest early move. Happy Trails won this race last year and is always popular with plenty of support for him at $7.50, while Puissance De Lune, runner-up last year, is another that punters have been keen on at $6.00.

All of the ‘futures’ races will re-open shortly after racing finishes on Saturday.



Greyhounds Racing

View Full Betting Markets


Greyhounds

Seven heats of the Adelaide Cup will be held at Angle Park on Thursday night, with the final to be held on Friday week. That is a ‘first’ for SA racing, and has been tried successfully recently with the Dapto Megastar held on a Friday night.

The last 2 Adelaide Cup winners, Spud Regis and Ernie Bung Arrow, both won the Cup after winning the SA Derby, and it will be interesting to see if this year’s Derby winner, the Queenslander Iva Vision, can sustain that form-line. Iva Vision has the pink box in heat 1 and has been installed as the $2.50 favourite to win that heat. Ernie Bung Arrow has had one run back from injury, and that resulted in a win in fair time over the shorts at Angle Park 2 weeks ago. Ernie has a real cult following around Australia, and is $2.00 to win heat 6 after drawing favourably out in box 8. It won’t be easy for him however as it will only be his second run in 9 months.



Harness Racing

View Full Betting Markets


Harness Racing

This year’s running of the Aristocrat Pace at Menangle on Saturday night sees the rematch between the Shane Tritton trained brilliant front runner, Suave Stuey Lombo ($2.15) and defending Miracle Mile and Interdominion champ, Beautide ($1.90). Last time they met, honours were with the Hunter Valley trained Suave Stuey, and with the same “jump and run” tactics surely to be adopted this week, it will be a question of whether golden girl, Lauren Panella, can lift the gelding over the final 200 metres of the imposing 1400m circuit, or will the all-conquering Beautide produce a typical tough grinding effort and go one better than its first up performance. Adding fuel to the fire will be the ever consistent Seel n Print ($10) , who no doubt will produce one of its trademark barnstorming finishes. The big question will be the return to the eastern states of former champion juvenile, Bonavista Bay ($51), who is only lining up for his third race in 4.5 years. The 9 year old gelding will surely find this opposition too slick, but could a miracle fairy tale return be just what the harness racing industry needs? 

 







Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager


Gerard Daffy - Twitter