Daff's Weekly Round Up

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The draw for round 1 of season 2015 was released this week, and TattsBet has all games open bar one - the Swans v Essendon match. That will not be open until there is some clarity around the situation with Essendon players. The first round will be played over the Easter weekend, so there will be no games on Good Friday. The first match will be at the MCG on the Thursday night between arch rivals Carlton and Richmond, with the Tigers opening at $1.60 and the Blues at $2.30.

One of the more intriguing games will be at the GABBA on Saturday afternoon when Brisbane ($1.70) take on Collingwood ($2.12). The Lions will have Dayne Beams in their side after he moved north from Collingwood. Once the draw for the season is announced, TattsBet will have most of the futures markets open. 

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Rugby League

The hasn’t been a lot of fanfare around the start of the Four Nations this week, but betting is beginning to warm up as the first round of matches approach. There will be a double header on Saturday with England first up against Samoa, and very warm favourites at $1.18 with the line at -14.5. That game has been quiet, but there has been a good push for New Zealand to beat Australia even though they are lengthy priced outsiders. The weather will be a factor in these games as it is expected to be 30 degrees In Brisbane, that means heat and humidity, so we would expect the Kangaroos to be able to cope better with that. They are $1.26 with New Zealand at $4.00, and the line has been set at 10.5. With several key players out of the squad, Australia have drifted from $1.25 to $1.45 to win the Fuor Nations title, with money for both New Zealand and England who are now $3.75 and $8.00 respectively.

TattsBet will have live betting on all of the Four Nations matches. 

Rugby Union

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Rugby Union

Melbourne Rising ($1.33) and Brisbane City ($4.25) are expected to make their way through to the first NRC final next week. Brisbane are away to NSW Country Eagles in the first semi on Friday night, while Melbourne will be nearly unbackable in their semi on Saturday night. Melbourne defeated Perth 44-24 during the season, while Brisbane also had a win over NSW Country, winning 34-26.

The ITM Cup finals will be on in New Zealand this week, and both finals look as though they could go either way. Manawatu open at $1.70 to beat Hawkes Bay ($2.10) on Friday night, while Tasman are the slight $1.80 favourites to beat Taranaki ($1.95) in Saturday’s Premiership Final. Taranaki have been the big surprise this season as they were the $34 outsider before the first round. Again we will have live betting throughout both finals. 

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Brisbane Roar remain winless after 2 rounds of the A League, and while the Roar have been an early mover ($2.05-$2.00) in this week’s match against Sydney FC, they have a few things going against them. The Roar face a short back up, and also a trip back from a loss in Perth, so they will need to be at their very first to get the three points on Friday. Melbourne Victory have opened as $2.30 favourites to beat Melb City  ($2.90) in Saturday’s local derby, with the draw at $3.40. Victory are this week’s favourites to win the title at $5.00, just ahead of Adelaide City and Sydney FC at $6.00, but this does look one of the most open competitions that we have had to date on the A League.

The Asian Cup isn’t too far away and the markets for round 1 went up this week. Australia are $1.22 to start the tournament with a win over Kuwait ($12), with the draw at $5.50, while co-tournament favourite Japan are $1.12 to start their campaign with a win over Palestine. The Socceroos have come in for some criticism with their form, and they have eased from $2.75 out to $3.25 to win the Cup, sharing that line with Japan. South Korea have been quite popular at $5.50, but there hasn’t been much interest yet in Iran who are the 4th favourites at $7.00. 

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Aussie Scott Hend won an enthralling Hong Kong Open last week, and the European Tour moves to Australia this week with the Perth International getting under way today (Thursday). This is a co-sanctioned event, and while Hend is not a starter, it is a quality field. South African Charl Shwartzel is the $12 favourite ahead of Victor Dubuisson ($1), then a gap to Danny Willet and the well backed Jason Duffner, both at $19. Duffner has form around the Lake Karrinyup course as he finished 2nd to Bo Van Pelt in 2012. Geoff Ogilvy makes a rare appearance in Australia and he is another that has been quite popular at $21.

The McGladrey Classic is the US PGA Tour event this week, and Matt Kuchar heads the market there at $13, narrowly ahead of Webb Simpson ($14) and defending champion Chris Kirk at $15. There has been a wide spread of money on The McGladrey, and the trend has been away from the 3 favourites, with Nick Watney ($26), Harris English ($31), Martin Laird ($31) and Russell Knox ($34) all well supported.

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Valentino Rossi won an action packed Australian GP last week. Marc Marquez went into the race as an odds on favourite but parted company with his bike when he seemingly had the race at his mercy. That paved the way for Rossi to pounce on the lead and he was simply too quick for Jorge Lorenzo and Bradley Smith.

The bikes are on a quick back-up this week in Malaysia, and Marquez has opened at $1.60 ahead of Lorenzo at $4.50, Rossi $5.50, and Dani Pedrosa at $7.50. We know Marquez has already wrapped the title up, so not surprisingly there is not a lot of interest in him at the short quote, but there has been a sprinkling of money for Pedrosa, who has won in Sepang the last 2 years.

Jack Miller kept his Moto3 title hopes alive with a win at Phillip Island, and he is sure to be quite popular in that race on Sunday. 

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V8 Supercars

The final meeting in Pirtek Enduro Cup will be held over the weekend with the running of the Gold Coast 600. As was the case with the last 2 meetings at Sandown and Bathurst, this is a team’s event, but it's unlikely we'll see a chain of events like we saw at Bathurst that enabled Chas Mostert and Paul Morris to come from last and win. There are 2 races on the Gold Coast, one on Saturday and the other on Sunday, both over 300km’s, but that tight street circuit makes it nearly impossible to come from back in the field. Car 1, Whincup and Dumbrell, have been the opening favourites for each of the endurance races, and that is the case again with that duo priced at $3.50. Car 888 (Lowndes/Richards) are on the second line of betting at $5.50, with both Cars 5 (Winterbottom/ Owen) and Car 22 (Courtney/Murphy) at $7.50. Whincup didn’t have much joy on the Gold Coast last year as he failed to finish in race 1 before placing 4th in race 2, but several of the other driving combinations have changed this year. Craig Lowndes won the first race but was partnered by Warren Luff, while race 2 was won by car 55 (Reynolds/Canto) who will be together again this year. They have been quite popular in early betting at $26. 

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Harness Racing

Queensland’s feature race on the harness racing calendar will be held at Albion Park on Saturday night.

The Queensland Pacing Championship will see Avonnova, the recently crowned 2014 QLD Horse of  the Year, going for back to back feature wins after winning the Gold Coast Cup last Saturday night. On that occasion, Avonnova landed a big plunge, backed from an opening $2.50 to start an odds on favourite. Backers never had a moments worry as Avonnova led all of the way, and many have slipped into the opening $2.00 again this week. For A  Reason is the second pick at $3.20, with some early support for recent Redcliffe Cup winner Majestic Major at $7.00.

The time honoured Kilmore Cup will be held on Sunday, and there is also an early fixed odds market open on this race with TattsBet.

The $3.00 favourite is Maximum, an ex-Kiwi who has only lost once on Australian soil, but does handle a standing start (which this race is), and is definitely better drawn in 7 than his main rival, Guaranteed, who will start from inside the second row. Guaranteed has opened at $3.20 after an impressive win in the Nyah Cup, but Im Corzin Terror ($3.50) must be a big chance of winning as well as his last 3 wins have all been in country cups. 

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The TOPGUN will be held at the Meadows on Saturday night , and it would be fair to say that race favourite Allen Deed would not have been considered as a runner until winning the Adelaide Cup two weeks ago. Allen Deed did trial at the Meadows in very fast time last Saturday night, but he doesn’t have a lot of early pace and he is going to need a lot of luck in the run to the first turn. Champion trainer Darren McDonald has 2 runners in the TOPGUN, Perth Cup winner Keybow and the consistent Awesome Project. Keybow hasn’t raced for 2 months but is a solid second favourite at $4.00. Mepunga Hayley ($13) is in the field now with the scratching of Flash Reality, and she must be rated highly as she has terrific form at the Meadows and is capable of leading, a big advantage in a hot field like this. 

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Horse Racing

Without doubt the two most popular horses in the nation are Buffering and The Cleaner, and we get to see both go around at Moonee Valley in the space of 24 hours this week.

Buffering will race in the Manikato Stakes at the Valley on Friday night, and although on the third line of betting at $6.00, he has been heavily supported by his legion of fans. In fact between Buffering and favourite Lankan Rupee ($3.70), nearly 80% of the money invested to date has been spread between the two horses. Terravista is the other one in the market at $3.80, but even with a massive boom on him, he's been very hard to sell.

And then there is The Cleaner! This horse has captured the imagination of the entire country. We have all heard the story around him, and people love to see leaders win races, and he has been backed for a fortune to take out the Cox Plate. The Cleaner was $201 in the original market, and there is one bet in there for $250 each way at that quote, and he has continued to firm all the way through his campaign. The serious money began to arrive on Monday of this week when a bet of $6000 was taken at $14, and then followed $4800, $4000 (twice) and $3800 at $12. When he drew the outside gate, the price drifted from $10 out to $12 with another $4800 bet coming at that price, then a bet of $5000 at $10 late on Wednesday. The Cleaner has been backed to win well over $1 million with TattsBet, but with the prices being extended on most of the other runners it is developing into a massive betting event. Fawkner has eased from $4.20 out to $4.40 after the draw, but there is serious money coming for both Adelaide ($7.00-$6.50) and Criterion ($9.00-$7.50) including one bet of $2500 for the latter.

Admire Rakti is $4.50 to win the Melbourne Cup but the interest has dried up in him at the short quote with the money this week coming for Fawkner ($15-$13) and Red Cadeaux at $17.

Written by

Gerard Daffy, Media Manager

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