Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - July 18

AFL

Patrick Dangerfield is the latest player to fall victim of injury which may rule him out of this year’s Brownlow Medal Race. Jobe Watson was equal second favourite at $7. 00 with Dangerfield before he broke his collarbone a couple of weeks ago. Dangerfield was the $5.00 outright second pick behind Gary Ablett ($2.10) last week but he also picked up a shoulder injury on the weekend and is out of business for a month. That has seen his odds blow out to $26 along with Watson, and the big question is whether or not they can get back to playing (and getting votes) before the season is over. The irony of it all is that Gary Ablett probably didn’t poll at the weekend but has firmed into $1.85 with Dangerfield blowing out in the betting. Collingwood pair Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury were the big movers of the round, into $9.00 and $11.00 respectively, but Fremantle’s Michael Barlow is also lurking at $11 as well.

The word ‘choking’ has been directed at North Melbourne again since they handed up a 33 point lead to the Lions last week. But as they say, a week is a long time in football, and the Roos have been well backed to bounce back against Carlton on Friday night. There is little doubt that they play their best football at Etihad Stadium, and the opening $1.80 was quickly snapped up. North Melbourne thumped Richmond there 2 weeks ago, and are capable of kicking big scores at Etihad. It is a must win game for both as they keep their faint finals hopes alive.

Collingwood travel north to Metricon Stadium to play the Gold Coast on Saturday evening, and punters think they will come away with the 4 points. The Magpies are one of the main sides taken in the bigger AFL multis for the weekend, and there has also been an early bet of $20,000 for them at $1.16. The action on the Adelaide v Geelong game has been similar with the Cats firming from an opening $1.22 into $1.18 with the news that Dangerfield would be out of the Crows side, and there is also some doubt about Scot Thompson lining up, and that would be another big blow to their chances. The line has been set at 28.5 and punters have been happy to take the minus.

There has been plenty of 2 way action on the Richmond v Fremantle game which will be played at the MCG on Sunday. After opening as the $1.80 favourites, Fremantle have eased to $1.91 equal fav’s with Richmond after goal sneak Hayden Ballantyne was ruled out of the Dockers side. That news was on the back of losing Matthew Pavlich who returned from injury in an impressive performance last week, and that has now seen money come for both sides at the current quotes.


RUGBY LEAGUE

State of Origin is over for another year, and with Queensland now having won 8 series in a row, we look ahead to next year’s series. Queensland will have 2 matches at home, so have to be clear favourites, and they are at $1.62. New South Wales have shown the last 2 years that a series win is not far away, but open at $2.30. The money for Queensland in the deciding match proved spot on as they were backed from an opening $1.90 into $1.50, but those who took the line of -4.5 for the Maroons would be cursing the streaker as Queensland looked certain to score a try and cover that line. We will never know what may have been, but that would have been an unexpected win for those who took the +4.5 for the Blues.

The big news out of the match was the potential long term injury to Greg Inglis. Early reports have Inglis on the sidelines from anywhere between 4 and 8 weeks, and that has seen the title odds for Souths go from $3.25 out to $3.50, Melbourne in slightly to $4.25, with the Roosters moving into $4.50 from $5.00. There has also been a decent price shift on their match against the Dragons to be played on Monday night. Souths were $1.10 or -18.5 points, but re-opened at $1.14 with the line moving into 14.5. There is talk that Ben Teo will also be out through injury, so the Dragons must be given a real hope of at least covering the line.

The other news for the week surrounded Benji Marshall, and where he is headed next. The Wests Tigers have shown improvement over the last 2 months, but the drama’s with Marshall and his move away from the Tigers has seen the New Zealand Warriors well supported to beat them Friday night. After opening at $1.65, the Warriors quickly firmed to $1.60 to keep their finals hopes alive.


CRICKET

As we know, England won the first Test and that keeps alive the chances of a 5-0 series win as tipped by Ian Botham. The clean sweep is now into $9.00 but Australia had their chance to win the first test, and hopefully they can win the second. The ‘in run’ betting during the first Test saw some dramatic twists, with both Australia and England quoted at odds on during the first day. It was a terrific betting match throughout, and once Australia lost their 9th wicket on the last day and still needed 80 runs, England were into $1.01 with Australia at $15. When the Aussies needed only 20 runs at the lunch break, they were the slight favourites at $1.85, a truly amazing turnaround. The Australian win didn’t eventuate, but it could have gone either way.

So on to the second Test at Lords, and there are some interesting stats worth noting. Australia has suffered only 1 loss in their last 20 appearances at Lords, with the most recent result being a 150 run win over Pakistan in 2010. England on the other hand have won 7 of the last 9 tests they have played there. That has inspired betting for both sides to win, and once again most are dismissing the draw. England opened at $2.00 and have remained there for most of the week, Australia have been $3.75 into $3.60, while the draw has eased from $3.30 out to $3.40.

After his heroic 98 in the first innings, youngster Ashton Agar was elevated up the order in the second dig, and it would be fair to assume the same will happen this week. Agar was unwanted at $126 in the first innings of the first Test, but is one of our worst results at $26 in the first innings of the second test. Can lightning strike twice? Michael Clarke ($3.75) and Shane Watson ($5.00) have been the other batsmen popular with punters, but Chris Rogers ($5.50) may well be the one here. Rogers was out to one of many contentious decisions in the first innings, but he has scored a bucket load of runs for Middlesex at Lords over the past 3 seasons in county cricket. Alistair Cook is the $4.00 fav to score the most for England, but the money has been for the two behind him in the betting, Kevin Pietersen and Jonathon Trott, both at $4.50. Pietersen has an average of 61.4 in tests at Lords, and did score 202 not out against India in 2011.

Tattsbet will be betting live during the first 2 sessions of the second test.


RUGBY UNION

The Chiefs and the Bulls get the first week of the Super Rugby finals off as they finished in the top 2 spots at the end of the home and away series. The Chiefs are $3.00 to win the title, followed by the Bulls and Crusaders at $4.00, the Brumbies at $6.50, the Reds at $6.50, and the Cheetahs at $23. The Cheetahs will be making their first appearance in Super Rugby finals, and travel to Canberra to take on the Brumbies on Sunday afternoon. They had the bye last week, but the Brumbies have to return from Perth after an unexpected loss, a loss that saw them lose the treasured 2nd spot. The Brumbies attracted several early bets including one of $5000 at $1.33, and have firmed into $1.30, with the line set at -8.0. The Brumbies are always tough to beat at home but it is worth pointing out that they have only won 2 of their last 6 at home against South African sides, and one of those losses was to the lowly Lions when they were in the competition last season.

The Reds travel across the Tasman to take on the Crusaders in Christchurch on Saturday night, and with the Crusaders striking form at the right end of the season, the Reds face an uphill battle. The Crusaders won all 8 matches at home this season, and if that news wasn’t bad enough for Reds fans, they have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the one and only time that the Reds beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. The positive stat that the Reds have is that they have won 3 of their last 4 against the Crusaders, but all of those were in Brisbane, including the 2011 Grand Final. Not surprisingly the Crusaders are warm favourites at $1.22 with the Reds at $4.25, and the line is 9.5. There will be live betting available during both of these matches.


motoGP

The German motoGP race was eventually won by Marc Marquez who started a hot $1.60 favourite, but his task was made a lot easier with the withdrawals of both Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa. In a bizarre turn of events, both have broken collarbones, Pedrosa doing his in Germany while Lorenzo did more damage to his that he had broken a few weeks prior. You get a feeling of how tough these riders are when it was revealed that when Lorenzo came off again in practise last week he bent the titanium plate that had been screwed in to repair the original break. He has had another operation to repair the damage again, while Pedrosa had intended to ride last week after he also had an operation, but was ruled out with low blood pressure. Amazingly both have said that they want to compete in the US Grand Prix at Laguna Seca this week, but their availability will not be known until later in the week. For that reason, betting has not been opened on this week’s race, but either way Marquez will be favourite to rack up his third win of the season. If both are out, Marquez will be odds on ahead of Valentino Rossi, if they compete, Marquez will still be a clear favourite, but probably around the $2.00 mark.


SUPERBIKES

The Superbikes return to Moscow for the second time this week, and title favourite Tom Sykes looks the one to beat in the opening race. Sykes has been in scintillating form having won both races at Donington and Imola, but sandwiched in between those 4 victories were wins to Marco Melandri and Eugene Laverty in Portugal. Sykes is $1.65 to win the Riders Championship ahead of Sylvain Guintoli at $4.0 and Laverty the other main contender at $5.00, but Sykes has opened at $2.50 to win race 1 this week ahead of Laverty at $4.00, Guintoli at $5.00 and Jonathon Rea at $5.50. Sykes did win the first race in Moscow last year with the second going to Melandri, however this course is one of the main test courses so all should be able to handle it.


TENNIS

The US Open is still a couple of months away but the results at Wimbledon has seen early interest in the US Open, and the money is spread around. Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are the $2.75 equal favourites in the mens title, followed by Rafael Nadal ($7.00), Roger Federer ($8.00) and Juan Martin Del-Potro at $9.00. Each of those has met with support as have Jerzy Janowicz ($41) and Bernard Tomic ($51) who both played well at Wimbledon, and Grigor Dimitrov ($67) who is fast becoming more famous for being Maria Sharapova’s boyfriend than his tennis exploits.

Serena Williams went into Wimbledon as an odds on favourite only to be bundled out when near on unbackable odds, but she is again $1.85 to win in New York. Victoria Azarenka is the second pick at $5.00 ahead of Sharapova at $7.00, with some early money also coming for youngster Sloan Stephens at $26 and Sabine Lisicki ($34) who was beaten in the womens final at Wimbledon by Marion Bartoli.


GOLF

Tiger Woods has won 3 British Opens, but none of those were played at Muirfield where the 2013 version will be played. Woods will be lining up after taking a several weeks off with an elbow injury, and while he has won 4 events this year, this will be a big ask. Tiger is the ruling favourite at $9.00 (out from $6.50), and he hasn’t generated the interest that he normally would in a Major. The doubt surrounding Tiger at the course and on his elbow has seen unprecedented interest in most others in the betting. Phil Mickelson won on the European Tour for the first time in 20 years when he won the Scottish Open last week, and he, along with Adam Scott and Jason Day, have been the standouts with punters. Mickelson has firmed from $26 into $19, while Scott is $21, narrowly ahead of Day at $23. Rory McIlroy has been out of form for most of the year but he has been supported at $23, his highest price pre tee-off this year, while others to attract business have been Ernie Els ($26), Brandt Snedeker ($41-$34), Thomas Bjorn ($51) and Ian Poulter at the same price. Age doesn’t appear to be a barrier when it comes to winning the Open S evidenced by Els last year and Darren Clarke in 2011. Els has justifiable claims as he is the defending champion, won in Moscow a couple of weeks ago, and most importantly won when the event was last held at Muirfield in 2002. It appears as though the wind may not be a major factor this week, but the layout should suit nearly all of the Aussie contingent. Adam Scott is the $2.10 favourite to be the Top Aussie ahead of Day at $3.50 but there has been backing for Geoff Ogilvy ($12), John Senden ($13) and Marc Leishman at $15.