Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - May 16

AFL

Six of the nine AFL favourites won last week, but on face value the upcoming round looks very predictable. The Thursday prices for all fave’s to win this week was around the $6.80 mark, and we haven’t seen much interest in any of the outsiders this week. The other reason to expect most will firm in the betting is that all bar one (Collingwood) is listed as the ‘home’ team, and punters do like to be on the home sides when they are the favourites.

Essendon hit a little hurdle last week against Geelong, but one fan expects them to be back in the winner’s circle this week after placing a bet of $35,000 on the Bombers at $1.06. Essendon look good things and feature prominently in most AFL multis for the week, but there has been a bit of support for Brisbane at the line which has moved from +54.5 into +52.5.

The GWS were on the receiving end of a 145 point hiding at the hands of the Crows last week, and while you would normally expect that the same would happen against Hawthorn this week, there have been very few prepared to take -96.5. The only explanation for that would be that the game will be played at Aurora Stadium in Hobart, and more often than not weather can play a big factor in line betting there.

Gold Coast will be at home on Saturday evening, and for the first time they will be favourites for the second week running. The Suns landed a pretty decent plunge ($2.05-$1.75) when taking the sword to Melbourne last week, and punters fully expect them to put the Western Bulldogs away this week. The market hasn’t moved from the opening $1.62 but twice as much has come for the Suns in preference to the Bulldogs, and it has been a similar case with line betting where one of the early bets was $3000 at -9.5 points.

Collingwood were poor against an injury depleted Fremantle last week, and now have to return from the west to take on unbeaten Geelong. That is a tough enough assignment in itself but it now appears that Collingwood will lose Daisy Thomas for several weeks. That has seen the Pies ease from $2.90 out to $3.20, and they appear destined to drift further as 90% of the early money has been with Geelong. 

RUGBY LEAGUE 

For the second week in a row Melbourne Storm went down as long odds on favourites when 12-10 losers to Penrith, and while many are fobbing off those losses as similar to when they had a slump last year, the big question is whether or not it’s a slump or are the Storm coming back to the field? That question will only be answered at the business end of the season but it is worth nothing that the slump last year was an aftermath of the Origin Series when they lost 5 consecutive matches from round 16 through to round 21. Billy Slater was injured for most of that time, but the 2 matches that the Storm have lost over the last fortnight have been with a near full strength side and against Canberra and Penrith, two sides who at the time of both wins were viewed as struggling. The Storm have eased out to $4.00 equal favourites to win the title with Souths, and the two main reasons they aren’t any longer is that they have already been backed for bundles, and bookmakers were burnt badly last year chasing the price out when they lost.

Melbourne will be at home on Monday night to Manly, and while there has been an early push for them ($1.45-$1.43), most of the other favourites have drifted in the betting. It looks a tough round on paper, and the Thursday head to head prices agree with that as the multi for all favourites to salute is a hefty $31.40. Brisbane and the Gold played in round 5 when the Broncos had an easy 32-12 win on the Gold Coast, but with Justin Hodges an unlikely starter for the Broncos on Friday night, the Titans have an excellent chance of squaring the ledger away. The Broncos have only won 1 game from the last 10 when Hodges has been out. The Broncos eased from $1.52 out to $1.65 with the Titans into $2.25, but the money since the news broke has been for the Titans.

The Roosters have been flying, but they face a real acid test this Saturday night in Townsville. The Roosters are coming off a 5 day back up, and those sides have an ordinary record, and also played in a bruising battle against Manly. The betting opened at $1.90 apiece, but punters charged into the Roosters straight away which saw a price move to $1.85. The Cowboys have been struggling this year but were much better than the 28-10 loss to Souths last week suggested. There was little in the game until late, and it would be fair to say that several 50/50 decisions went against them. It is a big game for the Cowboys, they need home wins if they are to be a major contender this year, and the Roosters are currently one of the benchmark sides in the competition. 

SUPER RUGBY 

Favoured sides have had a torrid time of it in this year’s Super Rugby season with only 45 of them able to win from 74 games. With the competition being so open, we are still no closer to being able to work out the potential finalists. The Chiefs head the market along with the Crusaders at $4.50 ahead of the Brumbies at $5.00, then the Reds are back in commission again at $6.00. The Bulls are the shortest of the South African sides at $7.50, while the Blues remain in contention at $9.00.

Week 14 could be a season defining round for most of the teams, and the results will be crucial going forward. The best game of the rounded is shaping as the Waratahs v Brumbies, and the early money is for the Waratahs to win at home at $1.82. After a rocky start to the season the Waratahs have won 3 of their last 4 while the Brumbies have won only 2 of their last 5, and that has been since they lost David Pocock. The Brumbies are also coming off a loss at home to the Crusaders followed by a week off, so they will need to be at their very best if they are to win.

The Reds found their very best form last week when beating the Sharks 32-17 in Brisbane, but start their South African campaign this week against the much improved Cheetahs. The Reds have won their last 3 matches against the Cheetahs but the Cheetahs have improved vastly this season. They had won 7 of their previous 8 starts before a shock loss at home to the Hurricanes last week (39-34), and the bad news for them is that Reds captain James Horwill returns this week after sitting out last week’s match. The Reds have opened slight favourites at $1.83 and that is where the early money has gone. 

GOLF

Jason Day’s only win on the PGA Tour was the Byron Nelson Championship in 2010, and he will go into the Byron Nelson this week as a heavily backed favourite on the back of some impressive form in the recent US Masters.

A lot of the big names will be missing this week after they all played in the Players Championship last week, and the win by Tiger Woods in the TPC was well received by punters. Tiger started the tournament as the $8.00 favourite and was considerable shorter each day after that. Most of this week’s field didn’t line up in the TPC, but there seems to be more interest than on a normal PGAS Tour event. Day has firmed from $14 into $12, but several others have met with big support including Jason Dufner ($17), Keegan Bradley ($21), Marc Leishman ($21), Louis Oosthuizen ($21) and Ben Crane ($41). Dufner is the defending champion while Bradley won in 2011, so punters are happy to stick with those with form on the course.

The World Matchplay Championship is due to be played in Kavarna, Bulgaria getting underway on Thursday, and Ian Poulter is the $8.00 favourite there from Graeme McDowell and Henrick Stenson at $8.50, while Ricardo Santos is the $15 favourite to win the Maderia Open in Portugal. The Madeira Open has one of the smallest prize money allocations on the European Tour and that has severely affected the depth of the field. 

FORMULA 1 

Fernando Alonso ($3.50) won the Spanish Grand Prix on Sunday, and he is now $2.35 to win the Drivers’ Championship. Alonso sits on 72 points, 17 behind Sebastian Vettel ($2.20), and splitting that pair is Kimi Raikkonen ($6.00) who is on 85 points. Raikkonen was runner-up in Spain while Vettel finished in 4th position, just ahead of Mark Webber.

The F1’s will be in action the weekend after next, and betting is open already. The Monaco Grand Prix is always the most popular with TattsBet punters apart from the Australian Grand Prix, and the early signs are that this year will be no different. Alonso is the narrow favourite at $3.25 ahead of Vettel at $3.50, the Raikkonen and Lewis Hamilton share the next line of betting at $6.00. 

MOTOGP

Jorge Lorenzo has won 3 of the last 4 running’s of the French motoGP, and he is the opening $2.70 favourite for this Sunday’s race. Lorenzo finished third at the most recent race in Spain behind Dani Pedrosa and Marc Marquez, and on that occasion started the red hot $1.60 favourite. On the form exposed so far this season there obviously isn’t much between that trio, and very little separates them this week in the early market. Both Pedrosa and Marquez are $3.25, then there is a gap to Valentino Rossi at $5.50. Pedrosa has a poor record around the Le Mans course with only one placing in the past 5 years, and it is also worth noting that Lorenzo didn’t start in the 2011 race, so his record is even more imposing. 

V8 SUPERCARS 

The V8’s break new ground this week with their debut on American soil. Four races will be conducted in Austin, Texas at ‘Circuit of The Americas’ which recently hosted the motoGP’s.

With no track form to go by, the market takes a similar shape to what it would be in Australia with Jamie Whincup the favourite to win race 1 at $3.00 ahead of Craig Lowndes ($4.50), Jason Bright ($5.50) and Fabian Coulthard at $6.50. The four races will each be over 100km’s around the circuit of 5.5km’s and the good news for Aussie v8 fans is that it will all be covered on TV. The practise and qualifying sessions will be in delay, but all 4 races will be live on 7 Mate, with 2 to be conducted early Sunday morning and the other 2 on Monday morning. 

GREYHOUNDS

TattsBet is betting fixed odds on 2 Group races from Sandown Park tonight (Thursday), and both races have drawn together excellent fields.

The Group 2 Harrison-Dawson final (515 metres) will see Queensland veteran Glen Gallon try and break the ice in a feature race in Victoria. Glen Gallon was the opening favourite at $2.75, and again was sensational in a come from behind win in his heat, but will need a little luck from box 3. His main danger appears to be Imry Bale ($4.00), another runner which can be ordinary early but should get a good run through the first turn after drawing well in box 2. The interesting runner will be Clone Your Own ($5.00) drawn in box 1. This dog is an import have had his first few starts in New Zealand but has adapted quickly and did run a fast 29.40 in his heat.

The Sapphire Classic (Group 1) will be the other race covered, and while NSW visitor Punch One Out recently smashed the Wentworth Park track record, she may need a little luck if she is to capture the Sapphire. Punch One Out uses a bit of the track so isn’t all that well drawn in box 1, and may have to contend with both Desalle Bale (box 2) and El Brooklyn (box 4) both cutting across after the start. For that reason alone Punch One Out must be considered some sort of risk at the quote of $2.10. 

BIG BETS 

$48,000 at $1.35 Indiana Pacers to win NBA series vs NY Knicks (Indiana lead 3-1)
$35,000 at $1.06 Essendon to beat Brisbane in Round 8 AFL
$22,000 at $1.95 Guangzhou to beat Central Coast Mariners in AFC (won) 

WINNING MULTI 

$95 at 487/1 won $46,430

Watford 3-1 vs Leicester at $17 (English Championship)
Newells Old Boys to beat Velez Sarsfield at $3.30 (Copa)
Chelsea to beat Benifica at $2.20 (Europa League)
Newcastle to beat QPR at $2.20 (EPL)
Tottenham to beat Stoke at $1.80 (EPL)