Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - October 17

RUGBY UNION

The Bledisloe Cup is already decided for 2013, and although the final test is a dead rubber, this week's match will still be treated very seriously by both sides.

New Zealand have already won the Bledisloe as well as the Rugby Championship, but have still been installed as hot $1.12 favourites with the Wallabies at $6.25. There is clearly some thought that the All Blacks may ease of the gas here as there has been good money for Australia at the line of +14.0 (into $1.85), and even some interest in them to win head to head. The Wallabies would be buoyed by a big win away to Argentina but the All Blacks were just as impressive in putting away the Springboks in South Africa which saw them win the Rugby Championship. This test will be played indoors at Dunedin and Dunedin hasn't always been a happy hunting ground for them. In fact going back to 2001, 3 of their 5 home losses all came in Dunedin, and the Wallabies would be aware of that statistic. On the flip side, if the All Blacks win this week it will equal a world record they set between 2003-2008 of 30 home wins in a row, and that record should see them chalk up another win. Hopefully the Wallabies can be competitive at least!


RUGBY LEAGUE

With Sonny Bill Williams now committed to the Sydney Roosters for another season, they have firmed in betting to take back to back titles. The Roosters opened at $6.00 after winning this year’s Grand Final, but are now into $5.00 to repeat the dose. Manly and Souths are on the second line of betting at $7.00 with Melbourne Storm easily the most popular in early trading at $8.00. Outside of the favoured teams, Penrith at $26 is the other side that punters have focussed on in the opening market.

SBW’s decision to also play for New Zealand in the World Cup impacted that particular market. NZ were $5.25 prior to that news, but were cut to $4.50. Close to $5000 in bets has subsequently come for NZ, and they have shortened again to $4.25. Australia are out to $1.36 after getting into $1.25 at one stage, and some of the bigger bets for them include $5000 at $1.30 and $3000 at $1.28. England are considered the only other major threat to the 2 favourites at $8.50. The opening match between Australia and England is also open for betting. That match will be played on Saturday week, and the Aussies are $1.17 with England at $5.10, and the line has been set at 13.5 points.


GOLF

The European Tour moves to Australia this week with the co-sanctioned Perth International due to get underway at the Lake Karrinyup GC on Thursday.

This will be the second running of the tournament and last year’s winner, Bo Van Pelt, is back to defend. Van Pelt is well in commission at $13, but punters have shown a distinct preference for favourite Dustin Johnson ($8.00) and Ross Fisher at $13. Splitting that duo is Paul Casey at $10, and it is worth noting that Casey finished tied for 5th last year. Brett Rumford ($21) has had a good year and has been the best backed of the big Aussie contingent in the field with Marcus Fraser ($29) not far behind him. Betting will be updated at the end of each day's play.

In the USA, the Shiners Hospital for Children Open will be played in Summerlin, Las Vegas, and Zac Johnson is the $11 favourite. This event was sponsored by Justin Timberlake for several years but that association has ended, but it is still a more than handy field. Nick Watney and Webb Simpson share the second line of betting at $17, followed by Hideki Matsuyama at $23. Several players at longer odds have been backed as well including Harris English and Charley Hoffman (both at $51) and Russell Henley at $67. Ryan Moore won last year but has been ignored at $26 as has Kevin Na at $34. Na won in 2011 and finished 5th behind Jimmie Walker in last week’s Frys.com tournament, so is in form and players well at Summerlin.


MOTOGP

The Australian motoGP will be held at Phillip Island on Sunday and it just won’t be the same without Casey Stoner going around. Stoner has won the last 6 Aussie GP’s, and he always went in as a heavily backed favourite. Dani Pedrosa won in Malaysia last week, and that was his first win since May and his second win in a row in Malaysia. He is back in form and was most unlucky at his previous start when he clipped Marc Marquez and fell. Marquez qualified fastest in Malaysia but had to be content with 2nd placing behind Pedrosa. That duo head the market for Phillip Island with Marquez slight favourite at $2.25 ahead of Pedrosa at $2.50, and Jorge Lorenzo is the other main hope at $3.50. Both Pedrosa and Lorenzo have had issues at Phillip Island in the past so it will be interesting to see how they perform with Stoner out of the picture.

TattsBet will also be covering the moto2 and moto3 races.


SUPERBIKES

Tom Sykes has all but wrapped up the Superbikes title so it will be interesting to see if he adopts a cautious approach in Jerez this weekend.

Sykes won both of the races held in Magny-Cours a fortnight ago after winning a race at Laguna Seca and is the $2.75 favourite to win race 1 in Jerez, which is the last meeting of the season. Eugene Laverty ($3.50) and Sylvain Guintoli ($5.50) can still mathematically win the title so they will be going all out in race 1, with the other main winning hope being Marco Melandri at $5.00. Race 2 will open as soon as race 1 is completed.


NASCAR

The Nascar season is also fast drawing to a close and the action moves to Talladega this week.

David Ragan won the race held at Talladega earlier in the season when a big outsider, and he is again an outsider this week at $201. Jimmie Johnson is the $8.00 favourite ahead of Matt Kenseth and Kyle Bush at $10.00, and while Johnson and Kenseth both have form at the track, the one to beat must surely be Brad Keselowski at $15.00. Keselowski won a race at the circuit last year but more importantly bounced back to form winning in Charlotte last weekend, and at his best is more than capable of upstaging the favourites again.


NBL

There should be a bit of spice in Sunday’s NBL game of the week when Melbourne hosts Perth, live on One HD from 1pm (AEST). New Perth coach Trevor Gleeson was unceremoniously dumped by the Tigers at the end of an up-and-down 2012 season, but after a year in the wilderness, he took over from the highly-respected Rob Beveridge in the west at the start of this campaign.

There’s a chance Gleeson may not be on the Wildcats bench for this match, as he is currently spending time with his critically ill mother. It shouldn’t be too much of a disruption for the Cats, who are unlikely to be without their mentor on Friday night in Sydney, as well. They survived a scare against an undermanned Adelaide in their season opener before squeaking home by three points. Import James Ennis was super-impressive and they’ll be an even better team when big man Matt Knight returns from injury.

The Tigers have big injury worries of their own with Chris Goulding and Tommy Greer out, leaving coach Chris Anstey with a threadbare bench. Perth was an impressive 9-5 away from home last season and they should win after knocking off Melbourne in all four match-ups last season. Perth will be warm favourites at home on Friday night and are likely to go into Sunday’s match at a similar quote.


GREYHOUNDS

There are a host of big races coming up in Victoria in the coming weeks that TattsBet will have a fixed odds coverage on, and one of those is the Geelong Cup which will be run on Friday night.

Race favourite will be the Jason Thompson trained Black Magic Opal which has returned in devastating form after an injury enforced layoff. Black Magic Opal will be exiting from box 4 but had box 5 when leading all the way in a record braking 25.25 heat win. Paw Licking has drawn favourably out in box 8 and will be going for a $50,000 bonus if he can win his second country cup for the year. He looks to be the only one that can bring the favourite undone, but he must come out running. If there is to be an upset it could come from ex-record holder Farmor Las Vegas who will come from box 2. He had no luck at all in the final of the Adelaide Cup and is racing in career best form.


HARNESS RACING

One of the highlights of the harness calendar each year is the New Zealand Cup which will be held at Addington Raceway on November 12. The market is already open on the Cup, but betting was knocked around last week with the news that Inter Dominion champ I’m Themightyquinn will not be making the trip across the Tasman after pulling up sore from his first up run in Perth on Friday night. That has seen favourite Christen Me firm from $3.00 into $1.60 with Terror To Love the main danger at $3.30. While we have never seen the best of Terror To Love in Australia, there is little doubting his ability and he has won the last 2 running’s of the NZ Cup. Victorian Caribbean Blaster is currently third pick at $9.00 but connections have said he is unlikely to make the trip.


OTHER

One of the more popular exotic markets that TattsBet covers each year is the ‘first to occur’ market, and the 2014 version is open.

It is pretty simple, the market is framed around the first to occur in 2014 from the nominated list of sporting events. Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open is the first event up, and that is $2.60 to happen, which of course is his price to win the Australian Open given it is the first event up. The second event up will be the Wales to win the Six Nations ($4.50), and they are $3.00 to win that title but you get the inflated odds as Djokovic will be up first. And so it continues on until October where Holden are $6.00 to win Bathurst, a race that they were $1.25 to win last week. The trick is however that all of the leads up events have to NOT occur. The price for none to occur has opened at $10 and that is always one of the more popular options. The market will reopen after each event if the event is still alive.