TattsBet News 27th September

AFL

The Brownlow Medal is over for another year, and it was a success story for Jobe Watson as well as favourite backers. In the most open Brownlow in history, there were three $5.50 favourites when the first envelope was opened, and they were Watson, Gary Ablett and Trent Cotchin. There were nine players under $51 in the closing market, and those nine where in the final top 10, with Lenny Hayes the one player who was at a longer price. The other point of interest that most already know is that all of those players were either prolific possession gatherers, or full time mid-fielders, and those positions will feature prominently when Brownlow Betting for 2012 opens. For the record, interest levels in the Brownlow with TattsBet doubled from 2011, a staggering growth rate in what is becoming a very serious betting event.

Now we move on to the Grand Final, and although there is always money for underdogs in finals, the level of interest for the Sydney Swans has exceeded expectations. Betting opened last Saturday night with Hawthorn at $1.45 and Sydney at $2.75. Sydney are a big winner in TattsBet’s premiership book, but on Wednesday we were forced to bring them in a fraction to $2.65 after close to $30,000 was placed on them throughout Wednesday alone. The prospect of rain and hail on Saturday has seen the money continue to flow in for the Swans, with the ratio of bets going 4-1 in favour of them. Hawthorn are out to $1.50, and while there have been a few decent sized bets (two of $5000), bigger punters are keeping away from them for the time being.

The expected bad weather has seen a wide spread of money come for the Norm Smith Medal. If the match is played in the wet, the game is expected to be low scoring, and a dour struggle, so while the midfielders are mostly at the head of betting, we have notice interest in some defenders and veterans. Sam Mitchell ($7.00) and Josh Kennedy ($9.00) polled terrifically well in the Brownlow and have been easily the best backed for the Norm Smith, but Luke Hodge ($9.00), Adam Goodes ($11.00), Brad Sewell ($11.00) and Shaun Burgoyne ($15.00) are beginning to head towards the liability column in the TattsBet book. Several bets of $1000 have already been struck on all of the above mentioned players, but our AFL analysts are tipping either Jordan Lewis ($13.00) or Josh Gibson ($26.00) to win the medal. Lewis is a superb player when the conditions are poor, while Gibson has had a terrific year holding the Hawthorn backline together, and he should be in the thick of the action on Saturday.

Naturally there will be LIVE betting throughout the match, but TattsBet will also bet LIVE in the run on the Norm Smith Medal.

AFL GRAND FINAL      Before Round 1      Best Price          Since Sunday          Notable Bets 
Hawthorn $5.00 fav $6.50 (Round 9) $1.48 out to $1.50 $18,000 at $1.55
$17,000 at $1.53
$3,000 at $4.25
Sydney $26.00 $34 (Oct 2011) $2.70 into $2.65 $1,000 at $11.00
$1,000 at $8.00
$480 at $26
    
RUGBY LEAGUE 

Apart from after Round 1 when the Gold Coast headed the NRL ladder, either the Canterbury Bulldogs or the Melbourne Storm have been at the top of the ladder, so it is fitting that these two will play off for the 2012 title on Sunday. Both were well in contention to win the title before the season started as well, with Melbourne a $9.00 chance on the second line of betting behind the Tigers who were $7.00, and the Bulldogs were at $13.00. Melbourne got as short as $3.00 when they were winning early on in the season, but got out to $6.50 again when they had a mid- season slump. The Bulldogs were always well in the betting as they continued on their winning way, but just never really drew any big bets in….it seemed as though punters where waiting for Ben Barba and Kristan Inu to slip up .. but they haven’t to date!

There has been a lot of talk surrounding the fact that Melbourne would have extra motivation in this final after being stripped of their titles, and while all of the stats suggest that the Bulldogs might have a slight edge at home, punters see it entirely differently. After last Saturday night’s win over Souths, the Bulldogs opened at $1.80 to win this week, with the Storm at $2.00. The first bet taken was $10,000 on Melbourne, and the money for them since has been relentless. After spending most of Tuesday and Wednesday at $1.80, the Storm, TattsBet was eventually forced to cut the price to $1.77 after a series of four figure bets. The Bulldogs eased out to $2.10, and may even drift further such is the support for Melbourne. The top 2 sides at the end of the home and away season have played off 24 times, with victory going to the minor premiers on 16 occasions, so the Bulldogs represent good value as the outsider.

The Clive Churchill Medal is the most popular ‘exotic’ bet type on the Grand Final each year, and while there is always a wide spread of money across all players, there are some standouts with punters. The ‘Big 3’ from Melbourne, Smith ($5.50), Cronk ($6.50) and Slater ($7.00) command 80% of the bets and the hold in early action, while Ben Barba ($6.00) has been the main go for Canterbury. Barba and team-mate Josh Morris have been the standout’s in the first try scorer markets (both at $8.00), with Slater ($9.00) and Will Chambers ($12.00) the best backed of the Storm players. Melbourne are at their best when Slater, Smith and Cronk play well, so it is no surprise to see money for those players in the key exotic markets which ties in with the support for Melbourne to win the game. As for Canterbury, well it all seems as though it will rest on young Barba’s shoulders. He has done an admirable job all year, and a win here would cap off a stellar year.

NRL GRAND FINAL      Before Round 1     Best Price              Since Sunday         Notable Bets
Bulldogs $13.00 $17.00 (Round 8) $1.90 out to $2.10 $4,000 at $3.00
$1,500 at $13.00
$1,000 at $8.50
Melbourne $8.00 $9 (January) $1.90 into $1.77 $10,000 at $2.00
$3,000 at $4.00
$1,000 at $8.50
     
GOLF

Brandt Snedeker finished with all of the cash after claiming both the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup last week, but now finds himself the outsider to top the USA points scores in this week’s Ryder Cup. Snedeker is $15 along with Zach Johnson, and punters have shown a preference for those at the head of the market including Tiger Woods ($5.50), Steve Stricker ($9.00) and Phil Mickelson, also at $9.00. Rory McIlroy is $6.00 to top the scoring for the Europeans ahead of Luke Donald ($7.00), then Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell, Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, all at $8.50. Tiger ($9.00), McIlroy ($10.00) and Donald ($11.00) head the combined points scorers market, but those markets have been quiet, and will remain that way until the first round pairings are known. By all reports the Medinah course has very little rough, and the general consensus is that the home nation will be suited, so the USA have remained solid in the betting at $1.72. Europe are $2.40, while there has been interest shown in the ‘tie’ at $12.00. 

RUGBY UNION 

The Wallabies have never won in Pretoria, and not many think that they can break their duck there on Saturday night. South Africa opened at $1.55 to win this game, but after a week have firmed into $1.39, with the Wallabies out to $3.00 from an opening $2.40. The line is -7.0 in favour of the Springboks, and even that line hasn’t been attractive to Aussie supporters. The Wallabies have also lost hooker Stephen Moore with a hamstring injury, and there has also been a gastro bug go through the camp, and that is not an ideal preparation.

New Zealand play Argentina in La Plata, and while TattsBet rate the chances of a win for the Puma’s, punters disagree. The All Blacks opened at $1.18, but were quickly backed into $1.14, with Argentina out to 45.75. The home side are receiving a healthy 12 points start, which seems a lot given their form. They played a 16-16 draw with South Africa before going down to New Zealand 21-5. They were run down by the Wallabies 23-19 on the Gold Coast two weeks ago, but did lead 19-6 at one stage. This will be the second last round of the Rugby Championship. 

CRICKET

The top 8 sides have made it through to the ‘Super 8’ stage of the T/20 World Cup, but unfortunately it seems as though the weather may be a factor in upcoming games. There were questions raised as to why this event would be played this time of the year in Sri Lanka as it is the monsoon season, and bad weather has already played a part in a few games. There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the market to win the World Cup, with South Africa and Sri Lanka at the head of proceedings at $5.50, while Australia is $7.00. Australia are the $2.00 outsider in their match against India ($1.80) which will be played late Friday night, while England have been well backed ($2.10-$2.05) to beat the West Indies on Thursday night. TattsBet will be betting LIVE throughout the finals series.

The Ryobi Cup domestic competition has a match scheduled for Friday as well where the Warriors will host the Bushrangers. Betting for that match will open on Thursday once the final squads are announced. Betting is updated on those matches at each break. 

FORMULA 1 

The ever consistent Fernando Alonso is $1.45 to win the F1 Drivers Championship after finishing third in Singapore behind Sebastian Vettel. The Ferrari’s were written off before the first race of the season, but Alonso has finished on the podium eight times now, and is 29 points clear of Vettel, who is now the second favourite at $3.50. Vettel was $3.60 to win what ended up being an action packed race in Singapore, while Leis Hamilton started a hot $1.65 public elect. Hamilton had to retire with gearbox trouble when he looked on target to win, and that has put a major dent in his title hopes as he is now 52 points behind Alonso.

The Japanese GP is on the weekend after next, and Hamilton is the opening $3.20 favourite ahead of Vettel ($5.00), Alonso and Jenson Button at $6.00. 

MOTOGP

Aragon, an autonomous community in Spain, will host the motoGP this week, and most will feel at home here as it is one of the main test courses. With Casey Stoner out of the picture, and the last start failure of Dani Pedrosa, Jorge Lorenzo is now $1.08 to win the title, with Pedrosa at $6.50. Lorenzo beat Valentino Rossi in San Marino last start, with Alvaro Bautista finishing in third place, and once again dominates the betting with Pedrosa this week. Lorenzo is $2.00 ahead of Pedrosa at $2.10, then a big gap to Rossi ($16), Cal Crutchlow ($17) and Andrea Dovizioso ($19). This course has only been used the last two years, and Casey Stoner won on both occasions, and both times Pedrosa finished second. Lorenzo finished third last year, and fourth in 2010, so barring accidents one of the duo should win again. 

SUPERBIKES

Max Biaggi has the World Superbike title at his mercy with only one round of the Superbikes to go. Biaggi is a little over 30 points ahead of Tom Sykes, and Marco Melandri is 8 points adrift of Sykes after an unfortunate weekend in Portugal. Melandri was the $4.00 equal favourite for race 1 with Sykes after qualifying, but he crashed before the race was forced to be restarted. Melandri couldn’t compete in either race after suffering damage to a kidney, and that has all but put him out of the title race now. Sykes eventually won race 1, while Eugene Laverty won the second race. The final round will be held at Magny-Cours in a little over a week’s time.

NASCAR

Denny Hamlin won the NASCAR race held in Loudon last Sunday, and that was good news for punters as he started the $5.50 favourite. There is a logjam at the top of the table now with Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski ahead on 2096 points, Hamlin lies in third place on 2089 points, then Tony Stewart (2086), Kasey Kahne (2081) and Clint Bowyer also on 2081. Johnson has been the one to beat again, and is now $2.75 ahead of Hamlin at $4.50 and Keselowski at $5.00.

Racing this week will be held in Dover, with the running of the AAA 400, and after finishing second to Hamlin last week, Johnson is the $4.50 favourite. Johnson won the event held in Dover earlier in the season, and finished second in the corresponding race last year after winning in 2009 and 2010, so his form on the circuit justifies the short price. On the second line of betting at $10.00 we have Kahne, Greg Bifle, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon, the Hamlin is on the $11.00 line of betting. 

V8 SUPERCARS 

With Bathurst a little over a week away we are beginning to see some serious action, and there is a new favourite. Car 888 (Lowndes/Luff) is now outright top pick at $3.00 after being $4.50 before their victory in the Sandown 500. In a terrific betting race, Car 888 is the early standout with punters, but several others are attracting support as well including Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) at $3.25, Cr 5 (Winterbottom/Richards) at $4.50 and Car 2 (Tander/Percat) at $10.00. There are a host of markets already open for Bathurst, and there are plenty more to come in the next few days. TattsBet will be trading live throughout the race.

NOTABLE BETS

Five-leg winning racing multi from last Saturday’s Caulfield card

$2 at 16,228/1 won $32,455

HVASSTAN in Race 3 at $5.25
VEEWAP in Race 5 at $4.60
OCEAN PARK in Race 7 at $7.00
FOLDING GEAR in Race 8 at $8.00
DETOURS in Race 9 at $12.00