Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - June 12

Formula 1

Daniel Ricciardo is the toast of Australia after winning his first Grand Prix in Canada on Monday morning, and while he did go into the race as a $41 chance, there were plenty of happy TattsBet punters after the race. Ricciardo was $15 before the qualifying sessions got under way, and blew out to the $41 after the grid was decided. Granted he had to rely on a few things to go right before winning, but it will give his confidence a major boost, and will increase the interest in F1 in Australia. We have already seen that in an early market on the Austrian GP which will be run in 2 weeks time. Ricciardo opened at $10 behind Lewis Hamilton ($1.65) and Nico Rosberg ($2.50), but 80% of the early bets have been for the Aussie to win again.


motoGP

Jack Miller is also flying the flag for Australia in moto3, and following on from a last start win, Miller will be a short priced favourite in Catalunya this week . Miller is now into $1.62 to win that title, and there was good money for him last start at $3.25.

The motGP class has become a lot more predictable with Marc Marquez a $1.38 chance to make it 7 in a row this week. Marquez is $1.38 to do that, and while he is again popular through multi's, there is an air of caution surrounding his chances this week. Jorge Lorenzo ($4.50) is on the improve, finishing a close second in Italy, and he has impeccable form around the Catalunyan circuit. Lorenzo won the corresponding race last year beating Dani Pedrosa and Marquez, and that made it 3 wins and 2 seconds from his last 5 starts here. This appears to be the best chance of anybody bringing an end to the string of wins this season for Marquez.


Greyhounds

Champion sprinter/stayer Xylia Allen has come up with the red box in tonight's (Thursday) Gold Cup Final at Albion Park, and although she has been installed a red hot $1.25 favourite, all interest will be on whether or not she can break the track record. Xylia Allen was only a length and a half off the record in her heat after missing the start, and after coming up with the inside draw, a massive crowd will be on hand to see if she can bag another Group 1, and another record.

The Flying Amy Classic is also on the program, and there will be an early fixed odds market on that race as well. Angvella grows another leg when drawn near the inside, and is certain to start popular elect after also drawing the inside box.


Netball

The Vixens are the first team through the ANZ Championship netball final, and will have the luxury of having this week off. The Vixens are now $1.50 earned the week off after beating the Firebirds 54-47, and the Queenslanders will take on the Magic who scored a big upset win when they defeated the Swifts by 1 point.The Firebirds have now won 7 in a row, and looked out of the game several weeks ago, but are now $3.50 to win the title, with the Magic at $6.50 .Those 2 sides will meet Monday night, and the Firebirds will go in as warm favourites at home, and with the knowledge that they did beat the Magic in New Zealand in the final round of the season 2 weeks ago.


Tennis

Both finals of the French Open went to the heavily backed favourites, although both dropped a set on the run through! Marie Sharapova was backed from $1.65 into $1.57 before defeating Simona Halep, while Rafael Nadal firmed from $1.80 into $1.60 in beating Novak Djokovic. That was a big move in a big betting game, the irony being that Djokovic had been favourite for 6 weeks leading into the final itself.Punters love Nadal on clay, and with 9 French Open's now on his belt, it will be interesting to see whether his body can carry him through to next year at Roland Garros.

Queens is on this week and as expected there is plenty of interest in those games leading into Wimbledon. The markets are open on those 2 finals and Djokovic is $2.75 to win the men's title ahead of defending champ Andy Murray at $4.00, then Nadal at $5.00. Serena Williams is $2.25 to win another women's title, with Maria Sharapova next in the market at $6.00. Petra Kvitova gets to her favourite surface and is $109, just ahead of Li Na at $13. There has been early interest in Simona Halep who is at $13.


Golf

Although Tiger Woods is missing from the US Open, there has been a terrific spread of interest in plenty of players, and once again Aussie golf followers are tipping a win for one of our reps.

Rory McIlroy is the $10 favourite ahead of the well backed Adam Scott at $12, but there has been plenty to say that Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson (both $17) can add another Major to their trophy cabinet. There are a host of players at $26 and three of those also rank up there as the most popular with punters, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Henrik Stenson. Day has had issues with a wrist injury for several months but claims he is over that while Stenson appears to be somewhere close to the spectacular form that he displayed 2 years ago. The Open hasn’t been played at Pinehurst since 2005, and on that occasion it was won by Kiwi Michael Campbell who was a big outsider, and that may explain why there is genuine interest in most players under $101. Campbell was due to start again this year but withdrew last week.

There will be 11 Australians in the US Open this year and Adam Scott is the short way there at $1.72 to be ‘Top Aussie’ ahead of Jason Day at $4.25.


Rugby Union

The new look Wallaby side completely took apart France last week when they won 50-23, and it could quite easily have been more. Unfortunately they have lost newly appointed captain Stephen Moore for several months, but he had little impact last week as he was injured in the first few minutes. Betting is up on the second test this week which will be played at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, and Australia have opened at $1.08 to maintain their 24 year unbeaten home record against France. The line has opened at 16.0.

The All Blacks got a fright against England last week, but again did enough to win by 5 points. They did the same thing against France last year before putting the French to the sword in the next 2 games, so although the line this week opens at -13.5 after being 18.5 last week, we fully expect the All Blacks to come back strongly after that narrow win last week.


Soccer

The World Cup will get under way on Friday morning, and as expected the betting activity is frantic this week as kick-off approaches.

TattsBet will have several options open for live betting throughout each game including the game result, under/over 2.5 goals, in play handicap and the correct score. There will be a host of other markets opened at half time focussing on the second half, and many of the ‘futures’ markets will re-open after the final match for the day has finished.

There will also be a few specials operating throughout the pool matches, and the main one of those will be money back on 1st goal scorer bets if the score is 0-0 at half time.

There have been a few moves in the market to win the World Cup this week where Brazil remain the favourites at $3.75 ahead of Argentina at $4.75. Brazil have been heavily backed since the market went up a year ago but this week a couple of the bigger bets at $3.75 have been $5000 and $3000. The biggest individual Cup bet to date has been $10,000 on Argentina at $5.50, while another customer has outlaid $5500 on England at $26. Close to 500 parochial Aussies have backed the Socceroos at $501 including one this week with a bet of $600 (to win $300,000), but the bad news for those fans is that the favourite in the ‘most goals Australia’ market is ‘No Goals’ at $3.75.

It is going to be a fabulous month of football, and all of the pool matches are open for betting.


AFL

Sydney remain the $3.50 favourites to win the flag this year, but the market could change significantly after their match against Port Adelaide this Saturday. Port are currently $5.50 along with Fremantle in premiership betting, with Hawthorn just ahead of them at $4.25. There is a long way to go this season but those 4 sides are in the box seat to finish in the all- important top 4, and it does appear as though 7 of the final 8 positions may also be locked away. The Kangaroos have an important game this week in Adelaide, if they win that then they will be nearly assured of playing finals footy, and would also make it very difficult for the Crows. Opinions are divided on this game, Adelaide opened at $1.87 ahead of the Roos at $1.93, and it has remained that way for four days with the action split 50/50.

But back to the big clash at the SCG, and Swans fans breathed a sigh of relief when Buddy Franklin did not have to front the tribunal. Sydney seem short at $1.47, but there has been good money for them in the head to head book, and also to cover the line of -14.5. Franklin is having a big impact now after a slow start to the season, and is into $8.00 to win the Coleman Medal, just behind Tom Hawkins, Jack Riewoldt (both $6.00) and Jarryd Roughead ($7.00).

Gary Ablett remains at $1.90 to win the Brownlow Medal, with Scott Pendlebury and Josh Kennedy of Sydney at $7.00. Fremantle’s Aaron Sandilands is a mover again, into $15 after another impressive performance last week.


Rugby League

Normally premiership betting on the NRL goes very quiet during the Origin Series, but one punter bucked that trend early this week. The person in question placed $10,000 on the Roosters at $4.50, then came back with $4600 at $4.25, and then promptly had another $10,000 on Manly at $5.00 followed up by $5000 at $4.50. Both sides firmed up slightly, and that has seen Souths ease out to $6.00 with the Bulldogs at $6.50. The Storm are the side on the slippery slide, they were $9.00 before the ‘Big 3’ were injured in Origin 1, and with Cooper Cronk out for several months, and a couple of big losses, the Storm are now unwanted at $26.

We all know that Marrons fans hate it when they are favourites, well they get their wish in Game 2 next Wednesday night as they travel to Sydney as the $2.30 underdogs. It is amazing that leading up until game 1, nothing seemed to go right for NSW, and now the boot is on the other foot. There are a lot of queries surrounding several of the QLD players, but as we have so often seen in the past, there is plenty of money for them now that they have been written off south of the border. NSW have to be the favourites based on the home ground advantage, and leading the series, but oddly enough the ratio of bets for the Marrons this week has been 3:1 in their favour!

The 5 matches this week have been very quiet, with most appearing one sided. The results since before Origin 1 have been the same way, with 18 of the 19 favourites winning, and it is hard to see why that won’t continue this week.