Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - May 8

Golf

The Players Championship is often referred to as ‘the 5th Major’, and although Tiger Woods will not be at Sawgrass to defend his title, it is still a quality field. Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott opened as the $14 favourites, and not surprisingly Scott is easily the most popular of those well up in the betting. He is a previous winner (2004), and although he spaces his events these days, he will be hard to beat. Matt Kuchar is the third favourite at $17 and is also quite popular given his form this year and is another previous winner having won in 2012. Phil Mickelson ($26), Jordan Spieth ($31) and Bubba Watson ($34) have all met with solid support at longer odds, and this will be the first time that Watson has stepped out since winning the Masters. Sergio Garcia is well in the betting at $23 but has been neglected by most. The Spaniard did win the Players Championship in 2008 and was pressing Tiger Woods last year right up until the second last hole where it all went pear shaped, so must be rated highly again.

Formula 1

The Formula 1’s move to Europe with the running of the Spanish GP this weekend, and the Mercedes duo of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg completely dominate the market. Hamilton has won 3 of the 4 races held this season and the other (in Melbourne), was won by Rosberg. Hamilton opens at $1.60 with Rosberg at 43.00, then a huge gap to Fernando Alonso at $13. The Red Bull pairing of Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo are both $15. A look over the last 6 running’s of the Spanish GP makes interesting reading. Lewis Hamilton has only managed 2 placing’s in that time, a 2nd in 2011 and a 3rd back in 2008. Alonso has a good record and did win last year’s race.

Motor Bikes

Marc Marquez won the Spanish GP last weekend, meaning he has now won all 4 races this season. Marquez is now into $1.07 to win the title, and we have to go back to the dominant years of Valentino Rossi to find a rider so short so early in the season.

The Superbikes will be in action this week in Imola, and while Tom Sykes is also odds on ($1.60) to win that title, he is $2.50 to win each race on Sunday. Sykes could only manage a 2nd placing from the last meet in Assen, but did win both races in Imola in 2013. Jonathon Rea is a previous winner here and had had a good week in Assen with a win and a 3rd, so looms as the one to beat this week.

Soccer

Brisbane Roar won the A League title this year, and although the win was expected, they had to do it the hard way, coming from a goal down and winning in extra time. The draw is always a big chance in any final, but there was very little interest in it at $3.45, with action split between both the Roar and the Wanderers. The best price for the Roar during the year was $8.00 just before the season got under way, and they had been $2.25 or shorter for the last 6 weeks.

Betting is open on next year’s title, and the Roar are the top pick at $4.75 ahead of the Wanderers at $5.00 and the Victory at $5.50.  Besart Berisha is a big signing for Melbourne Victory, and we expect plenty of support for them, but Brisbane are ready to move on another import to replace the Albanian, no doubt hoping they can find one just as good!

The World Cup is fast approaching and we are beginning to see some serious money come in on the raft of options that we have up. Brazil are the $3.25 favourites to win the Cup, but Argentina are into $5.00 after a bet of $10,000 at $5.50 two weeks ago. Germany ($6.00) and Spain ($7.00) are the next in line, followed by Belgium ($17), Italy and France (both $21)

Super Rugby

The Crusaders are favourites to win this year’s Super Rugby title for the first time this season. After getting off to a slow start the Crusaders touched $9.00, but are now into $3.75 ahead of the Sharks ($4.25), the Chiefs ($5.00), Waratahs ($5.00) and Brumbies at $5.50. Looking at those prices there is a lot at stake in Saturday night’s match between the Brumbies and Sharks in Canberra. The Brumbies are rock solid in the betting at $1.52 with little interest in the Sharks at $2.50. The Brumbies have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides in Canberra but it is worth remembering that their one loss to the Sharks was the last time they met, in 2012. Jake White returns there this time as the coach of the Sharks, there will be a lot of feeling in this one.

The Crusaders travel to Brisbane on Sunday afternoon to take on the Reds, and the facts and figures point towards a win to the visitors. The Reds are $3.10 outsiders and have lost their last 2 at ‘Fortress’ Suncorp whereas the Crusaders ($1.36) have won their last 4 matches on the road. The one thing in favour of the Reds is that they have beaten the Crusaders the last 3 times they played at Suncorp, the last being the 2011 Grand Final, but they are a long way from the side that played that year.

Rugby League

Betting is open on the first State of Origin match in Brisbane, and the home side are $1.55 with NSW at $2.45. The Queenslanders absolutely hate it when they are favourites as they love the underdog status, but having won 8 series’ in a row, and a lot of injury concerns for the Blues, one could argue that they should be even shorter. With the advantage of having 2 home games this year Queensland are $1.60 to win the series, but oddly enough there has been money for NSW at $2.35. The series correct score market will open next week.

A full fixture of NRL returns this week after the rep games last week, and the biggest move of the week came on Sunday when it appeared as though Daly Cherry-Evans would be out of the Manly side to play Melbourne. Melbourne were $1.72 at that stage but were slashed to $1.45, with Manly blowing from $2.10 out to $2.75. Whilst Cherry-Evans has been named to play it seems as though most expect him to be a late withdrawal as all of the money is for Melbourne who are now into $1.44.

There is plenty at stake in Townsville on Friday night when the Cowboys host the Broncos. The home side have had an indifferent start to the season but there is an air of confidence around them the Cowboys this week as they go into the match as favourites. Brisbane have had some injury concerns at training this week and look set to lose Sam Thaiday, so that may see the Cowboys shorten up even further from the $1.78 that they currently are trading at.

Before the season started the Gold Coast were $7.50 to be the top Queensland side with TattsBet. North Queensland were $2.00 and Brisbane were 42.35, but to show what a stellar start the Titans have had, they are now $1.90 with the Broncos at $2.90 and the Cowboys at $4.75. It will all chance dramatically this week as the Titans are underdogs at home to Souths while the other 2 sides play each other in Townsville.

AFL

Gary Ablett is into $2.50 to win the Brownlow Medal after only 7 rounds, and while most would have been of the opinion that there are way too many risks involved with having a player so short so early in the season, it cannot be any other way. Ablett is a renowned vote accumulator
, won the Medal last year, and is now in a side that is on track to get 10+ wins this season. It is hard to believe but if his form continues on into the next few games that the Suns have then he will be odds on to make it back to back medals.

Port Adelaide look the real deal this season, and although Hawthorn are warm $3.00 favourites to win the flag again, over 50% of flag bets this week have been for Port at $6.50. They get another opportunity to stamp their mark on the competition on Saturday when they will be at home to take on Fremantle, and punters think it will be a win to Port. Several 4 figure bets pushed the price in from an opening $1.63 to $1.60, and there has been good support for them to cover the line as well including one bet of $4000 at -7.5.

This week is the first of split rounds and there will only be 6 matches played, and Monday night football makes a return. Carlton are $1.33 in that game to beat St Kilda but the early money has been for the Saints at $3.25, and also at +21.5.

Sydney play Hawthorn on Friday night, and the news during the week was that we are likely to see both Buddy Franklin and Kurt Tippett line up for the Swans. That saw plenty of smallish bets come for the Swans at $2.80 and $2.75, but the game is to be played at ANZ Stadium where the Swans are well out of their comfort zone, and the scores at that ground are often low. It would be a big call to play both this week, but we will see what happens