Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - May 29

Golf

Rory McIroy and Adam Scott filled the wallets of punters last week with their wins, and the pair will go head to head this week in The Memorial Tornament.

McIlroy won the BMW on the Euro Tour, and although he came from several shots behind Thomas Bjorn, he had been the best backed before the tournament started. Scott had to do it the hard way as well winning in a playoff with Jason Duffner. The Aussie was the worst result for TattsBet at $15 before play got under way, completely understandable given he had been in the news as the new World Number 1.

McIlroy is the slight $8.50 favourite to win at Muirfield Village this week, just ahead of Scott at $9.00, and the early money has been split between that pair. Matt Kuchar is on the third line at 417, followed by Luke Donald at $23. Others who have been backed include Phil Mickelson ($26), Jason Day ($29) and Keegan Bradley at $41. Jason Day is returning from a wrist injury, so hopefully he can get into some form with the US Open approaching.

The Nordea Masters, formerly the Scandinavian Masters, will be played in Malmo, Sweden this week, and Henrik Stenson is the $7.00 favourite ahead of Fancesco Molinari and a rejuvenated Thomas Bjorn at $19. Bjorn led for the first 3 days last week before being hauled in by McIlroy at Wentworth, and he has been the standout with punters this week.


MotoGP

One of the more predictable things in life these days is that Marc Marquez will win the motoGP races, and the Spaniard is $1.33 to continue on with his amazing form this week in Italy. Marquez has completely dominated this season, and it doesn’t seem to matter what the track is racing like, or the conditions, he is just too good. We have noticed a lot more have been including him in their sports multi’s each time he races, and why not? The one little minus for him this week is that he failed to finish at Mugello last year, with Jorge Lorenzo winning. Lorenzo is a $7.50 chance this week but does have very good form on the course having won the last 3 years, and that followed two 2nds. Valentino Rossi is the second pick at $5.00, and while the veteran has been racing a long way short of his best, he did win 7 in a row here in his halcyon days.


Nascar

Jimmie Johnson returned to form with a win in Charlotte last weekend, and is now into $4.00 favourite to win the 2014 Sprint Cup title. Johnson defeated Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth, and became the 10th different winner from the 12 races held this season.

The action moves to Dover, Delaware this week, and Johnson will be the clear favourite. He has good form in Dover having won 5 of the 10 races held there over the past 5 years, and he will head the market from Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Kenseth. Keselowski won here in 2012 but his form this season has been well below what it was 2 years ago.


Greyhounds

Sweet It Is won the Sandown Cup in devastating fashion last week, and the plan is for her to head north next week for the heats of the Gold Cup at Albion Park. The local stayers will be in action this Thursday night in the main lead-up, the Winter Chase, and Wag Tail has opened as the $2.50 favourite although drawn awkwardly in box 4. The main danger looks to be Eleazar ($4.00) drawn well in the red box. A pre-post market will be available on the Gold Cup next week after the fields are released.


Harness Racing

It will be an early start for Harness enthusiasts on Saturday with a 9.43am start for The Jewels in New Zealand. TattsBet has had the markets up all week, and although it is an all NZ meeting (no Aussie horses), there has been plenty of interest. Adore Me is the shortest price fav for the day at $1.10 in race 1, but all eyes will be on unbeaten 2yo Follow The Stars ($1.30) in race 8. Follow The Stars is in the all -powerful Mark Purdon stable, and has won all 6 starts. There will be an Australian connection there as he will be driven by ex Queenslander Natalie Rasmussen.


Super Rugby

This week will be the last round of Super Rugby before the break for the mid year Tests, and there will be no more matches until the end of June.

The Sharks are back into $3.25 to win the title after some impressive wins away from home, and they do look on track now to top the table. The Crusaders are at $3.75 ahead of the Waratahs at $4.50. The Western Force are still at $34 but look a realistic chance of making in into the finals.

The Chiefs are $1.66 to get their season back on track when they host the Waratahs on Saturday night, and the early money is with them. They have won 5 of 6 at home with the only loss being by 1 point to the Crusaders, but they have only won 3 of their last 9 this season. The Waratahs are running into form again at the right time, and have won 4 of their last 5 starts against the Chiefs.

That match will be followed by the Blues v Hurricanes in Auckland, and while the Blues are only a remote hope of making the finals, the Canes will be desperate for a win as they are still 2 points adrift of a log jam. The Hurricanes have opened up slight top picks at $1.85 with the Blues at $1.95, with the early money for the Hurricanes. They have won 3 of their last 6 appearances in Auckland so that holds no fears for them, and they did a major demolition job on the Chiefs last week. They need the win, and on form that should happen!


Rugby League

Origin 1 was one of the most brutal in recent memory, and in the aftermath of that match some long term injuries have been picked up to key players. It looks like as many as half a dozen players will not be able to play in Origin 2, with Queensland having to replace Cooper Cronk and perhaps Billy Slater.

The Maroons went into game 1 as the $1.45 favourites, but there was any amount of money for NSW to win at $2.85, with the ratio of bets on game day running at 3:1 in favour of the Blues, but the bigger amounts were for Queensland. Darius Boyd was a very popular player in the 1st try scorer market with 2000 bets coming in for him, the biggest of those being $200 at $10, while Jarryd Hayne was always a solidly supported $8.00 chance to win Man of the Match. TattsBet updated that market throughout the first half and such was his dominance in the first period that Hayne was $2.00 at the major break, and there was money for him at that quote. Game 2 betting opened as soon as the first was over, and the $1.80 for NSW to wrap the series up in Sydney didn’t last long. There were a couple of dozen bets straight away for NSW while there was only 1 bet for QLD at $2.00. The market has settled now at $1.75 and $2.10, while NSW are now into $1.36 to break a long series drought.

Nearly all games this weekend will be affected by injuries, and it looks like Parramatta will also be a noted drifter against Penrith on Friday night as they will be resting Jarryd Hayne. Melbourne have lost their ‘Big 3’ for at least a few weeks, and they have blown from $9.00 to $13 to win the title, while Brisbane have gone from $14 out to $17 with their issues around the salary cap surfacing this week.


AFL

Thursday night football makes a return tonight in Sydney when the Swans take on Geelong. It will be interesting to get the crowd numbers as the Swans are on the rise, and Origin was played interstate on Wednesday night. Geelong have been forced to make a couple of changes, and do get back Stevie Johnson, but have been big drifters from $2.50 out to $2.90 while the Swans have firmed into $1.43. If Sydney win they may well take over as flag favourites in light of the health issues surrounding Hawthorn’s coach Alistair Clarkson. Sydney are currently at $5.00 with Hawthorn at $3.75.

Melbourne have found some form and travel to Alice Springs Saturday afternoon to take on Port Adelaide. One punter thinks this will be a walk in the park as he has plonked $36,000 on Port to win at $1.10.

The Suns have a difficult assignment in Adelaide on Sunday when they take on the Crows, but although they are the outsiders at $2.15, twice as many bets have been placed on them as opposed to the Crows who are $1.70.

Those who took the $2.00 for last week for Gary Ablett to win the Brownlow Medal would have had a couple of restless nights before it was decided he had no case to answer, but it hasn’t deterred many as this week there has been close to $5000 taken at $1.90 in series of bets. Scott Pendlebury is now the clear second favourite at $7.00 ahead of Joel Selwood and Josh Kennedy at $9.00.