Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - May 1

Golf

The China Open is a European Tour co-sanctioned event with the Asian Tour, and it will get under way at the Genzon Golf Club, Shenzhen, early Thursday morning.

This will be the first time the China Open will be played on the Genzon Course, so lining up the form will be difficult. The defending champion is Australian Brett Rumford, and he is an outsider at $67. Henrik Stenson makes one of his rare appearances for 2014 and is the $7.50 favourite ahead of Ian Poulter ($9.00) and Jason Dufner at $11. There has been early interest in Nicolas Colsaerts at $23, and he is another previous winner of the China Open having won in 2011, but is in form judging on his equal 2nd behind Lee Westwood in the Malaysian Open last week.

Matt Kuchar staged a remarkable performance to win the Heritage last week, but he will be missing from this weeks Zurich Classic on the PGA Tour. Many of the big names are also having the week off, and that has seen Justin Rose installed as the $13 favourite ahead Keegan Bradley ($19) and Rickie Fowler ($19). Billy Horschel won last year and there has been some interest in him at $41, with Charles Howell 111 another to be backed at the same quote. John Senden is the shortest of the Australian's at $34, and after a terrific performance in the Masters, he has been the best backed apart from the first 3 in the betting.

 

A League

The Brisbane Roar won the Premiers Plate several week's ago and are now $1.50 to win Sunday's A League Grand Final. The Western Wanderers finished second on the ladder so it is fitting that they meet the Roar in the final, but they face a daunting task. Brisbane are yet to be beaten in a finals game at Suncorp, and have had the added advantage that they did not have to contest the AFC Champions League over the past few weeks. The Wanderers are $2.50 in the futures market, and that betting is based on which side wins the title whether it be in 90 minutes, extra time or a penalty shootout.The normal 1 x 2 betting in 90 minutes has been interesting as there has been big support for Brisbane at $2.10, nearly as much for the Wanderers at $3.30, but very few takers for the draw at $3.45.

This will be the last game that Besart Berisha will play for Brisbane, and he has been clearly the best backed at $5.00 to be first goal scorer. Berisha has scored 31 goals in 39 games at Suncorp, an incredible statistic, while Tomi Juric is the shortest of the Wanderers players at $8.00. There will be live betting throughout the final. 

 

motoGP

Marc Marquez is into $1.10 to win the motoGP riders title after notching his 3rd win from 3 races in Argentina last weekend. The Spaniard has completely dominated this year, and although sat off the pace behind Jorge Lorenzo in Argentina, once he took the lead he cleared out to a 2 second lead. It is hard to see any other rider being able to match it with Marquez this season, and they are on a quick back-up this week in Jerez, Spain. Marquez has opened at $1.45 with Lorenzo at $4.00, and then Dani Pedrosa at $6.00. Pedrosa did win this race last year defeating Marquez and Lorenzo, and although Pedrosa finished second in Argentina, Marquez looks the winner.

 

Rugby League

The naming of the New Zealand side to take on Australia on Friday night was a big talking point on Monday morning, and it didn’t take long for punters to react to the opening market. The Aussies opened at $1.10 with the line set at -20.5, but within hours of that market going up, a huge bet of $26,000 was placed on Australia to cover the line at $1.90. It has been one way traffic since then with the line now at $23.5, and less than $500 has been placed on New Zealand receiving the big start. There have been a few bets placed on them to win at $9.00, but it is 9 years since New Zealand won a test in Sydney, and this side appears to lack depth.

Country v City is in the news as well following the withdrawal of several players from both sides. When betting opened on this match, TattsBet had Country the favourites at $1.75, but City are now fav’s at $1.71 with Country out to $2.15

TattsBet will also be covering the State of Origin Under 20’s match as well as Fiji v Samoa, and live betting will be available on all rep games. Round 9 is open for business and Manly are closing in on title favourtism, now $5.50 behind the Roosters at $5.00.

 

AFL

There hasn’t been a round of AFL this season where all favourites have won (6 rounds gone), but looking at the prices this weekend that sequence might be broken. All 9 favourites to win works out a tick over $5.00, easily the shortest this year, and similar to what happened several times last season. That doesn’t mean that all will win of course as there are a  few matches that there could possibly be upsets in led up by the Carlton v Collingwood match and the derby in the west. There is a lot of history between Carlton and Collingwood, and although the Magpies won the last meeting by 41 points, the Blues come in off the back of some improved form. Punters have been taken by Collingwood as they have been $1.28 into $1.27 on the back of some big multi action, but there hasn’t been a lot of interest in them to cover the line of 24.5.

Essendon have hit a bit of a hurdle over the last few weeks but are expected to bounce back against the Bulldogs on Saturday night. Both sides play their best footy at Etihad, but Essendon have won 4 of the past 5 meetings here between the two sides.  The Bombers are another side backed through multis to win, and also to cover the line of 20.5.

Sunday will see the 39th playing of the Western Derby, and while the Eagles hold the advantage 21-17, Fremantle have won the last 3. Both sides are coming off a loss but the performance by Fremantle against North Melbourne was well below par. They have been the least popular of the favourites so far this week with money coming for the Eagles at $2.70, and the line has already shortened in a point from 13.5 to 12.5.

Fremantle have drifted out to $6.75 to win the flag now, sharing the third line of betting with Port Adelaide, and behind Hawthorn ($3.25) and Geelong ($5.50). Port look the real deal, and over 50% of flag bets this week have been for Port to go all the way in 2014.

 

Super Rugby

While there has been a lot of focus on the upsets in AFL and NRL this year, rugby results have gone down a similar path with only 42 fav’s able to win so far from the 67 Super Rugby matches played. Last weekend 3 of the 4 top hopes to win the title were all beaten with the biggest upset being the win by the Highlanders over the Sharks. That has seen a major reshuffle to betting with the Sharks out to $4.25, just ahead of the Crusaders ($4.50, Chiefs ($5.00) and the Brumbies at the same quote, while the Waratahs are still well and truly in the mix at $5.50.

The Sharks have had a cosy draw up until now, but last week’s loss would give more than a glimmer of hope to others as they start their tour this week in Melbourne. The Rebels are coming off a bye but have attracted more bets this week as they have firmed from an opening $2.35 into $2.20 while the Sharks are out to $1.66.

 

Big Bets

$26,000 Australia -20.5 at $1.90

$6000 Collingwood at $1.27