Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - April 17

Golf

Bubba Watson has won his 2nd US Masters, and although the bulk of support with TattsBet was for mainly Adam Scott and Jason Day, Watson wasn’t completely ignored at his opening quote of $26. Past winners of any event are always popular, and Watson well and truly fell into that category.

More often than not the big name players take the week off after the Masters, but several will be lining up in the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head, South Carolina, this week.

Jordan Spieth is the opening $17 favourite after finishing 2nd in the Masters, just ahead of Matt Kuchar ($18), Luke Donald ($19) and Jim Furyk ($21). That trio have been the best backed, particularly Furyk who won here in 2010 and played well in the Masters. Graham McDowell ($23) won here last year and is another to attract heavy support as has Brandt Snedeker at $31. The shortest of the 7 Australians in the field is Mark Leishman ($81) who missed the cut at the Masters after hitting the lead on day 2.


Formula 1

The Mercedes pair of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg dominate the betting on this week’s Chines Grand Prix, and looking at the season so far it is hard to argue against the winner coming from anywhere else. Rosberg won the season opened in Melbourne and Hamilton has won the next 2 races in Malaysia and Bahrain, and he is the $1.70 favourite this week ahead of Rosberg at 42.70.Hamilton has the runs on the board in China with wins in 2008 and 2011, as well as placing’s in 2010, 2012, and a 3rd to Fernando Alonso last year. The Red Bulls seem to be on the improve, and Sebastian Vettel is the next in the market at $15 ahead of Daniel Ricciardo at $17, but Ricciardo has been twice as popular as Vettel with the TattsBet punters after being much quicker than Vettel in Bahrain.


Greyhounds

Tasmania’s Buckle Up Wes is an odds on favourite ($1.90) to add the Golden Easter Egg to his impressive CV at Wentworth Park on Saturday night. Buckle Up Wes has drawn ideally in box 1, and looks very hard to beat after leading all of the way recently to win the Australian Cup. Local hope Evil Punk is the second pick at $5.00. The Association Cup final will be on the same programme and Victorian Xylia Allen is the $1.60 favourite after smashing the track record last week.


Cricket

Unfortunately the IPL will not be shown live into Australia, but with so many of our best players competing, there has been genuine interest shown as the tournament gets under way. The first half of the IPL will be played in the UAE before it moves to India, and the betting is wide open with Chennai and Bangalore the $5.00 equal favourites ahead of Hyderabad. Spinners dominated the recent T/20 World Cup and that is expected to continue in the UAE even though Sri Lankan speedster Lasith Malinga (Mumbai) is the $9.00 favourite to take the most wickets for the series. Virat Kohli (Bangalore) is $6.00 to top the run totals ahead of the always popular Chris Gayle (Bangalore) at $7.00, but several players have met with solid support including Glen Maxwell ($34-$26) who will line up for Mohali.


Stawell Gift

The Stawell Gift is one of the time honoured events on the global athletic calendar, and TattsBet will have a market up on Thursday night for Monday’s final. The early market moves are always a good guide as to who can win the final, and betting will reopen following Saturday’s heats and also straight after Monday’s semi-finals. Follow the TattsBet twitter account @tatts_sports for any market moves.


Soccer

Liverpool are the favourites to win the EPL for the first time this season after beating Man City last weekend. Liverpool opened at $26 in the original market, touched $41 a few weeks into the season, and are now $1.75 ahead of Man City at $3.00 and Chelsea at $5.00.

Closer to home and the A League final series gets under way this week. Brisbane Roar ($2.00) and Western Sydney ($3.75) get the week off after finishing on top of the ladder, while the other 4 contenders are left to battle it out to see who will progress. These are ‘one off’ finals so if they end in a draw at the end of normal time, extra time will be played, and if they can’t be separated then, we go to a penalty shootout. The 2 home sides are the favourites, Melbourne Victory at $1.90 to beat Sydney FC, while the Central Coast Mariners are $2.20 to beat Adelaide United. Sydney FC thrashed Melbourne 5-0 the last time the pair met, but Victory have hit form at the right time as the finals get under way.


Racing

Chris Waller completely dominated last week’s Doncaster Handicap training the first 4 runners across the line, and TattsBet customers can jump aboard the Waller juggernaut with this week’s TattsBet Twist. The offer for this week will be at the inflated odds of $5.00 for any of the Waller runners to win Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The champion trainer will have nearly half of the field engaged, with his runners being Boban, Sacred Falls, Hawkspur, My Kingdom of Fife and Royal Descent. *conditions apply, check the website for details.


Super Rugby

The Waratahs were forced to go into last week’s match against the Force without Israel Folau due to the IRU standing him down, and their loss in that game has put pressure on the Waratahs as they try and sure up a finals berth. The Force are on a role having won 5 in a row now, but remain a $29 chance to win the title while the Waratahs are still well up in the market at $5.00. The Waratahs are warm $1.36 favourites to beat the Bulls in Sydney on Saturday night, but their record against the Bulls is far from impressive, having lost the past 8 matches against the South African side, including the last 3 meetings in Sydney. Not surprisingly punters have been apprehensive to take the short odds.

The Force travel to Melbourne to play the Rebels, and it was only back in round 4 that the Force thrashed the Rebels 32-7 in Perth after having held a 32-0 lead at half time. Home ground advantage is a big thing in Super Rugby (39 home teams have won this season), and that is the main reason that the Rebels have opened as the $1.80 favourites in this match, just ahead of the Force at $2.00.


AFL

We are only 4 games into the AFL season and many are claiming that the flag is now a race between 3 teams, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Geelong. That is a big call as it only takes one key injury or suspension to start losing matches in this day and age, but judging by the bets for the flag this week, punters have temporarily written the others off. Hawthorn are rock solid $3.00 favourites ahead of Fremantle at $4.50 and the Cats are now into $7.00.

Sydney have blown from $8.00 out to $11 after last week's loss at home, and although at home again this week, all of the money has been for Fremantle to beat them. The Dockers get Nathan Fyfe back and have firmed from $1.72 into $1.68.

Port Adelaide have a poor recent record against the West Coast, and although both sides are $1.90 in Saturday night's big clash in Perth, a staggering 85% of the bets to date have been for Port Adelaide. They will be getting the Eagles at a good time as they are coming off an embarrassing loss to Geelong last week.

The blockbuster at the MCG on Monday between Geelong and Hawthorn is shaping as the biggest betting game of the round, and there has been a good early push for Geelong. The Cats opened at $2.65, but solid support has seen that price drop 5c, and there is good money for them on the line which opened at +10.5. Both sides are unbeaten this season and the Hawks did break the 'Kennet's Curse' when defeating Geelong in a preliminary final last year.


NRL

It was again a tough round for favourites in round 6 of NRL action with only 4 of the 8 fav's winning, and one of those, Melbourne Storm, were very fortunate to come away with the 2 points against St George Illawarra. The running tally for the season is 20 fav's from 48 games (41.6%) with the line favourites faring much worse with only 10 of 48 (20.8%) covering the line.

There has been a trend growing over the last 2 weeks of money coming for outsiders to win, and a look at the numbers above would explain that. Most underdogs this week have already met with decent support, and 2 in particular go around on Friday. The Bulldogs have been $2.10 into $2.05 to beat Souths while Brisbane have been $2.22 into $2.05 to beat Newcastle in the second match of the double header at Hunter Stadium.

One favourite that has been solid in the market is the Dragons ($1.63) who will be taking on the Warriors at WIN Stadium on Saturday night. Although the Warriors won away from home when they beat the Cowboys a couple of week's ago, they have again been a major disappointment so far this season, and the money says the the Dragons will atone for the heart-breaking loss they suffered in Melbourne on Monday night.

The Roosters remain the title favourites at $5.50 but the betting to win this year's title has slowed downed noticeably due to the numerous upsets. The side to attract the most bets this week, albeit small ones, has been Parramatta who are into $19 after opening the week at $21.