Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - March 27

Netball

Historicailly netball has been one of the more predictable sports that TattsBet accepts wagers on, but although there had beena few upsets in the first 3 rounds this season, the round just completed (round 4) would go down as one of the biggest round of upsets in any sport ever. All 5 favourites were beaten, and while the Firebirds weren't at a prohibitive quote in their loss to the Swifts ($1.80), the other 4 to go over were $1.25,$1.25,$1.03 and $1.10. A $1 multi on the 5 winners would have yielded a massive $1990. We may never see a set of results like that ever again!

Golf

The withdrawal of Tiger Woods from last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational sparked a splurge of support for Adam Scott, who firmed from $15 into $10. Scott got as short as $1.14 after the second days play when he led by 7 shots, and was $1.35 going into the final round when he still held a lead of 3. Scott had a shocker the last round to wind up i third place behind Matt Every. It now seems that Tiger Woods maybe doubtful for the Masters where Rory McIlroy is the $7.50 favourite ahead of Adam Scott at $8.50, with Tiger still in the betting at $11, just ahead of Phil Mickelson at $13 and Jason Day at $17.
 
Mickelson is the $15 favourite to win this week's Valero Texas Open, just ahead of Zach Johnson ($17) and Matt Kuchar ($18). There are 9 Aussies in the field and John Senden is the shortest of those at $51. Johnson is a 2-time winner here having won in 2008 and 2009, while Scot Martin Laird ($51) is the defending champion.

Formula 1

The Mercedes pair of Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton head the market to win this week's Malaysian GP at $2.70, and although Rosberg won the season opener in Melbourne, Hamilton has been the more popular with punters this week.Neither has won in Malaysia before although Hamilton was placed third in 2012 and 2013, and qualified fastest in 2012. Sebastian Vettel has won 3 of the last 4 GP's in Malaysia with Fernando Alonso breaking the sequence in 2012, and although Vettel only lasted 3 laps in Melbourne after problems with his Red Bull, there again has been solid support for Vettel at $15. Vettel's Red Bull team-mate, Danial Ricciardo, is $17 and he is another who has been really well backed after finishing 2nd in Melbourne before being disqualified.

V8 Supercars

Symmons Plains in Tasmania will host the V8's this weekend with 2 races over 100km to be held on Saturday and a 3rd over 200km on Sunday.
We can't really take too much out of the 4 non-championship races held at Albert Park 2 weeks ago as they were short races on a course where it is impossible to pass. Jamie Whincup is the $3.75 favourite with TattsBet to win race 1 this week ahead of Craig Lowndes at $5.00, but those 2 have been neglected in favour of Shane Van Gisbergen ($6.00) and Scott McLaughlin ($7.00). McLaughlin won race 4 in Melbourne and has really become a big hit with punters. There hasn't been much interest shown in Fabian Coulthard which is surprising given he won 2 of the 3 races held here last year, with Jason Bright winning the other.
AFL

It has taken an eternity, but we finally see the start of round 2 action tonight at the MCG when traditional rivals Richmond and Carlton will do battle. Both are coming off unexpected losses in round 1, but the money has been for Richmond who will go in as warm favourites around the $1.63 mark. Carlton have had the wood on Carlton over a long period of time, but the stats have been dismissed, as they have in the Sydney v Collingwood game to be played on Saturday night. This game will be played at ANZ Stadium, and the Swans have a woeful record there against Collingwood having lost 9 of 12 played there, and have also lost 11 of their last 13 against the Pies. Both of these sides went over in round 1, but it would be fair to say that Collingwood’s loss to Fremantle was a very bad loss. Punters think that the Swans will put the bad record at ANZ behind them as they have been one of the best backed sides through multi’s for the weekend.

Saturday afternoon will see the 36th running of the Showdown in Adelaide (Port have won 19), and apart from the very first one, this Showdown will be the most anticipated ever. Adelaide Oval is now the main ground for AFL in South Australia, and Port go in as favourites after an early push for the Crows early in the week. Port touched $1.67 on Tuesday but 48 hours later were into $1.65. There has been good money for Port to win the flag as well, and they are rock solid at $15.

Hawthorn and Fremantle are the current $4.25 equal favourites to win this year’s flag, and it may surprise some to learn that Fremantle have been easily the best backed since round 1 got under away. The largest bet for the Dockers this week has been $5000 at $4.25, but there have been numerous other sizeable wagers, and there was another bet taken last Friday before the NRL started of $7500 at $17 for the Dockers and Sydney Roosters to win their titles, and that is a potential payout of $127,500.

Rugby League

 

The Roosters defeated Manly in all 4 of their matches last season, and they have been $1.54 into $1.47 to continue that run on Friday night.

 

Manly have had some tough games already this year, and a couple of lucky wins including a victory over Parramatta last Friday, but it appears as though punters think that the Roosters will not only win, but also cover the line of 6.5 points. They are now into clear $3.75 favourites to win this year’s title, while Manly have also firmed in betting, now on the 4th line at $7.50.

 

The other Friday night game will see the unbeaten St George Illawarra host Brisbane at WIN Stadium. The Broncos have won 6 straight against the Dragons, and although they are  the slight outsiders, there has been a good early push for them in to $2.00 after opening at $2.05. The main catalyst behind the revival of the Dragons has been Gareth Widdop, who is now the $7.00 favourite to win the Dally M. It is hard to believe from what we have seen so far this season that these 2 sides were two of the best back to finish at the bottom of the ladder, and both are now at a much shorter price to win the competition that to run last…the Dragons $21 to win, $34 to run last, while the Broncos have been well backed at $15 to win the title and are also $34 to finish at the bottom.

 

The Warriors provided a big upset when they defeated the Cowboys in Townsville last week, and while they play in New Zealand this week, it is worth noting the match against the Tigers will be played in Wellington. The young Tigers side have been another revelation this season, and there have been 3 times as many bets for them to win at $2.60 than for the Warriors at $1.50. One big minus for the Warriors is that they have played in Wellington 6 times and are yet to chalk up a win.

 

Rugby Union

 

The Reds will be desperate for a win when they host the Stormers on Saturday night after a disappointing trip to South Africa. The Reds were given no favours by the referee last week against the Lions, and all of a sudden they are  under enormous pressure to reach the finals. The Stormers have lost all 3 tour matches, but have won 4 of their last 5 in Brisbane, including their last start there in 2012. That record alone will see them competitive, and although the Reds are the opening $1.60 favourites, there has been solid support for the Stormers to not only win at $2.35, but also to remain within the 3.5 point line.

 

The Chiefs are the $4.25 equal favourites with the Sharks to win this year’s Super Rugby title, but they will be the outsiders against the Bulls in Pretoria on Saturday night. The Bulls ($1.75) have found some form having won 3 in a row, and definitely have the edge over the Chiefs having won the last 6 times the pair have played in Pretoria.

 

While Israel Folau may be out of the Waratahs side who will play the Sharks on Saturday night, there is plenty of money to suggest that the Waratahs can win in Durban. Most of the early money has been for them at $2.75, with the Sharks at $1.45, with the Sharks coming off the back of their first loss last week. They have won all 4 matches played at home this season, and it is hard to ignore the fact that Folau has scored half of his teams’ 16 tries this season.