Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - March 20

Golf

Aussie John Senden was an outsider to win last week’s Valspar Championship, but the Queenslander scored his second win on the PGA Tour, and the timing couldn’t be better. Senden makes his way into this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and although he is again an outsider ($71), the winning chances of all starters have been bolstered by the withdrawal of Tiger Woods due to injury. Tiger has won this event 8 times before, including the last 2 years, and the betting is now wide open with Adam Scott, Justin Rose and Bubba Watson sharing top billing at $13. Scott has commanded more than half of the early money, with only lukewarm interest in his co-favourites, but there has been good support for Zach Johnson ($21-$18), Henrik Stenson ($26) and Harris English ($31-$26). Adam Scott is a hot $1.57 chance to be the Top Aussie ahead of Senden ($6.50) and Marc Leishman the best of the rest at $8.00.

Cricket

After a week of warm up and qualifying matches, the T/20 World Cup gets under way on Friday night when India play Pakistan. TattsBet will be betting live throughout the World Cup, and Australia’s first game will be on Sunday when they play Pakistan. Even though Mitchell Johnson has been ruled out of the Australian side, the Aussies have continued to firm in betting, now $4.00 ahead of Sri Lanka ($5.50), India ($6.00, and the West Indies the best of the rest at $7.50. Apart from Australia the best backed sides have been Sri Lanka, India and New Zealand ($9.00).

 

There are several player markets available, a series ‘most runs’ and ‘most wickets’ option, as well as the same for all of the main chances to win the Cup. Dave Warner is the $10.00 favourite for most runs, but the West Indies’ Chris Gayle has been popular, $17-$11, while Sunil Narine and Lasith Malinga are the $9.00 favourites to take the most wickets for the series.

 

The Sheffield Shield final has lost a lot of its lustre this year as the NSW have had to surrender the right to host the final due to the baseball being played at the SCG. We are not sure if this is the first time that the final will be played outside of the states of the 2 sides playing in the final, but it gets under way in Canberra on Friday. NSW are $1.36 to win the Shield with WA at $3.10, and in the option including a draw, NSW are $2.25, and draw is $3.25, and WA are again $3.10 as they have to win the match outright.

Formula 1

The Australian F1 always provides thrills and spills, and the first GP of the season didn’t let us down again. Lewis Hamilton went into the race as an odds on favourite at $1.80, but was out of the event before 5 laps were completed. Nico Rosberg was well in commission at $4.00 behind Hamilton, and he led for the major portion of the race before running out an easy winner. The big story however was Daniel Ricciardo who started from the front line of the grid. The Australian was $8.00 into $6.00 after qualifying 2nd fastest, and had been one of the best backed drivers to finish on the podium at $2.50. The good news for those punters was that although Ricciardo was subsequently disqualified, those punters till get paid as the payouts on these type of events are always based on ‘podium presentations’, a sports equivalent to ‘correct weight’ in racing.

 

The market is open on the Malaysian GP which will be run on Sunday week. Rosberg and Hamilton are the $2.70 equal favourites ahead of Felipe Massa at $11, while Ricciardo is high up in the betting at $13, amazingly the same price as his Red Bull team-mate Sebastian Vettel.

MotoGP

The motoGP season starts this week with the first to be held in Qatar, and Jorge Lorenzo is the $2.30 favourite to win this race for the 3rd year in a row. Marc Marquez won the Riders Title last year, and although the Spaniard is $1.90 to win again, he is the $2.75 second elect to win in Qatar. Both are recovering from injuries but are expected to be the pair to beat.  Dani Pedrosa is the other main hope to win the title ($6.50), and while he is only $4.50 to win Sunday’s race, he is yet to win in Qatar, and has only ever been placed twice at the course.

 

AFL

The GWS probably provided the biggest upset in any code for 2014, when they defeated the Sydney Swans in the first round of the AFL!

The Giants attracted plenty of small bets at $12 before the match started, although there had been several 4 figure wagers on them with 50 and 48 points start when it did appear as though there was bad weather around. That is exactly what happened, but nobody could have predicted what happened in the last quarter when they completely outplayed the Swans. The biggest ‘in play’ bet for the winners came in the first quarter, a bet of $1000 at $11, but they did in fact get beyond that price later in the quarter. The Swans had been a huge firmer to win this year's flag, $8.50 onto $5.25, with a big premiership bet of $5000 arriving last week at $5.25. The result has seen GWS displaced as wooden spoon favourites, out to $2.75 behind the well supported St Kilda at $2.25, with a decent gap to Melbourne at $5.00. The Giants, Suns and Port were all upset winners from the 4 games last week, and a multi to predict the 4 winners (including Fremantle), worked out to be $125 for a $1 outlay, just before Fremantle kicked off.

The wooden spoon (most losses) betting will become clearer after this weekend when St Kilda play Melbourne. When betting opened on this match several months ago, Melbourne were $2.25 outsiders, but a new coach and some decent trial form has seen that price collapse into $1.60, and punters are even happy to take that this week, including one bet of $4000.

North Melbourne have also been a solid ‘go’ to beat Essendon Saturday night, with most thinking that the ASADA investigation must eventually take its toll on the Essendon side. The Roos were $1.75 two weeks ago, but by Thursday of this week were already into $1.65 with the largest bet of the week on the game being $4500 at $1.65.

Gary Ablett is into $6.00 to win the Brownlow Medal after one round, and it is hard to see how he could not have received 3 votes against Richmond. Fremantle’s Nathan Fyfe also firmed in the betting, $9.00 into $ 7.00, but the query with Fyfe and his potential for votes last week was that he was rested for the last quarter. Adelaide’s Paddy Dangerfield has been the one player this week outside of the top 2 who has attracted most attention, now into $9.00.

Rugby League

Didn’t pick all 8 winners in round 2 of the NRL? Don’t despair, it was a rather odd set of results with only 3 of the 8 favourites winning, and one of those, the Melbourne Storm, were fortunate to get a win when Penrith’s Peter Wallace missed a penalty which would have seen the Panthers win the game. The dividend for a $1 outlay on all 8 winners (based on Friday prices) was $496, one of the highest ever.

Brisbane were written off by most experts before round 1, and had been tipped to finish in the bottom 4, but they are unbeaten after 2 rounds, and host the Roosters this week. The pair have met 6 times at Suncorp and it is 3 wins apiece, and while the Broncos have eased from $2.45 out to $2.60 after losing Ben Hannant, the Roosters have been hard to sell at $1.50.

The Bulldogs landed a massive plunge on Monday night ($1.55-$1.25) when thumping Cronulla, but punters have deserted them against Penrith in Saturday’s match. The Panthers were good against Melbourne, and have been $1.63 into $1.58 to get back into the winners list. Money for St George Illawarra ($1.65-$1.56) suggests that punters think Todd carney is unlikely to start for the Sharks on Saturday night, while Canberra have firmed in betting against the Gold Coast ($1.53-$1.48), not due to any money movement but due to the news that Aidan Sezer is out of the Titans side.

Big Bets…

$10,000 Argentina World Cup @ $5.50
$10,000 Wladimir Klitschko to beat Alex Leapai @ $1.14…Boxing

$6000 Roosters -5.5 @ $1.90 v Brisbane

$6000 Manly @ $1.20 v Parramatta

$5000 West Coast make final 8 @ $1.80