Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - February 27

Rugby League

Souths and the Roosters were impressive in their respective matches last week, and both have held their place at the head of NRL title betting. The Roosters remain at $4.75 while Souths have come in slightly from $6.50 to $6.00, but there has been a really good push for North Queensland ($13-$12) since they won the Auckland 9’s. The Cowboys have been backed to win close to $50,000 this week, and will be the shortest priced favourite for round 1 ($1.33) when they take on Canberra on Saturday week. We are seeing plenty of money come for most of the other ‘futures’ options as well, including a bet of $4000 this week for Souths to win the minor premiership at $5.50.

The Intrust Super Cup season begins this week, and while Easts Tigers are the $4.00 favourites to take out the title they travel north as $2.45 outsiders against Mackay on Saturday night. The Channel 9 match on Sunday that TattsBet will be betting live on is the Redcliffe v PNG match, and while the Dolphins are hot favourites to win ($1.16), there has been early support for PNG to spring an upset in their debut at $5.10.

AFL

The NAB Challenge continues and will finish this week, and there have been several outsiders win to date. The first 15 matches saw 9 favourites win, and only 6 of those were able to cover the line. Most of the matches have ended in blowout score-lines, but that is to be expected as sides rest players as the matches progress. There has been quite a bit of movement in premiership matches as a result of what we have seen so far as well as several key injuries. Hawthorn have been impressive in their wins and are now outright flag favourite at $4.50 ahead of Fremantle and Sydney at $5.25. Geelong have picked up some long term injuries and have eased out to $8.00 from $7.50, while North Melbourne are another drifter from $13 out to $15. Adelaide ($23) and Port Adelaide ($26) have been the best backed sides this week on the back of big wins over Carlton and Essendon respectively, and Adelaide’s Paddy Dangerfield has been backed to win close to $20,000 in Brownlow action after he took Carlton apart on Monday night.

TattsBet has also opened several season head to head markets with the big talking point being the fact that the Gold Coast Suns have opened as $1.80 favourites to finish higher up the ladder than the Brisbane Lions ($2.00). The Lions ($8.50)face a big task in round 1 when they travel south to take on Hawthorn ($1.06) whereas the Suns ($2.30) will be at home to Richmond ($1.60) in what is shaping as one of the games of the round.

Netball

The ANZ Championship season gets under way this weekend, and although the Melbourne Vixens have lost Sharelle McMahon, they do gain the services of Courtney Cox. The Vixens have been installed as the $4.00 favourites ahead of the NSW Swifts and Adelaide Thunderbirds (both $5.50), then Queensland Firebirds and Central Pulse are on the next line of betting at $7.00. The Swifts have a good roster which now boasts Caitlin Thwaites and Sharni Layton, and they also have a male coach, Rob Wright. There has been solid early support for the Swifts at $5.50 as has there also been for both the Pulse and West Coast Fever ($10). The Fever are expected to be the big improvers this season after several key off season signings. Betting on the weekend’s matches will be available each Saturday morning with TattsBet, and the first match each Sunday will be televised live on SBS and Fox Sports.

Rugby Union.

The Sharks have moved to $4.50 along with the Chiefs to win the Super Rugby title, with the Crusaders out to $5.50. The big moves out of the week 2 results were the Waratahs ($9.00-$6.00) and the Reds ($13-$9), and ironically these two meet on Saturday night. Both will be buoyed by their opening performances, and although the Waratahs open as warm $1.48 favourites ahead of the Reds at $2.60, it is the Reds who have dominated recent meetings. The Queenslanders have won their last 5 against the Waratahs, 2 in Sydney and 3 in Brisbane, with the last 3 matches being low scoring affairs. The Rebels start their season at home on Saturday night when they host the Cheetahs. This will be the 3rd match in as many weeks for the Cheetahs, the previous 2 being at home in Bloemfontein, which resulted in a shock loss to the Lions and a win over the Bulls. The Rebels have never beaten the Cheetahs (3 matches), and have again made several changes to their roster, but have been quite popular at $2.00 to score their maiden victory over the Cheetahs.

V8 Supercars

In a big weekend of sport, the V8 Supercar season also gets under way with the Clipsal 500 in Adelaide.
The format changes this year with 2 races on Saturday and a 3rd on Sunday, away from the traditional 2 race meet. Jamie Whincup is the $3.50 favourite to win the opening race, ahead of Craig Lowndes ($6.00), Mark Winterbottom ($7.00) and the heavily backed Shane Van Gisbergen ($10). Van Gisbergen won a race in Adelaide last year with the other going to Craig Lowndes, while the 2012 winners were Whincup and Will Davison. Whincup is going for a fourth Drivers title in a row, and sixth overall, and is the $3.00 top pick to do so, with Lowndes next in line there as well at $5.00. Betting will be open on the second race as soon as race 1 is finished, and Sunday’s race will open later on Saturday night.

Golf

Jason Day put Australia on the map again when he won last week’s Accenture Matchplay, and while Day was favourite for the last 4 days of the event, he was taken to a playoff by Frenchman Victor Dubuisson.

This week all of the big names (except Day) return in the Honda Classic which will be played at Palm Beach in Florida.

Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods head the betting at $9.00, with Tiger the more popular of that duo, and they are followed by Adam Scott ($17), Sergio Garcia ($21) and Charl Schwartzel, also at $21. Scott is always well supported by his local legion of fans but there is plenty of interest in several others in what is a star studded field. Graeme McDowell ($26-$23), Henrik Stenson ($26), Luke Donald ($51) and Louis Oosthuizen ($51) are some of the players who have been well backed to beat the favourites.

Harness Racing

Menangle will host the Interdominion on Sunday afternoon, and there is also a fabulous support card of races on.

The barrier draw for the final probably posed more questions than it answered, and Smolda has joined Beautide as the $3.90 equal favourite. Differing opinions always means spirited betting and there have been several horses backed to take out the big race since the draw was done. WA pacer I’m Victorious ($8.50-$7.00) has been the standout with punters after coming up with barrier 1, but the big question is can he capitalize on that draw? Restrepo will be representing Victoria in the final and is another who has been well backed, $17 into $14, while Terror To Love ($12) is another to meet with big support even though he has always struggled to reproduce his best form when he has crossed the Tasman.

Greyhounds

The Group 1 Australian Cup will be run at the Meadows on Saturday night, and recent Perth Cup winner Keybow is the $2.50 favourite with TattsBet. The Darren McDonald trained sprinter was the fastest of the heat winners and looks ideally suited in box 2. Cult greyhound Kiss Me Ketut ($5.00) is sure to have plenty of admirers after drawing the red box, while last year’s Perth Cup winner Dyna Nalin ($4.50) is the other runner to beat after drawing well in box 3.

Cricket

There is a lot at stake in the 3rd Test between South Africa and Australia which gets under way in Cape Town on Saturday, but betting has been extremely quiet as the weekend approaches. In fact the prices haven’t moved since opening on Monday with South Africa at $2.15, Australia $2.90 and the draw at $3.75. The draw was crunched from $3.75 into $2.60 in the days leading up to the 2nd test, but there was a result inside 4 days which has become the norm in test matches these days. There has been small interest in all 3 options, but the biggest bet to date has only been $1000 on South Africa at $2.15.

TattsBet has opened a market to win this year’s IPL title with Chennai the $5.00 top picks ahead of Mumbai and Bangalore at $5.50. The T/20 World Cup is only a little over a month away as well, and we continue to see money for Australia at $5.00, which places them as equal favourites with India.