Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - February 20

CRICKET

Australia carried their fantastic Ashes form through to the first test in South Africa last week, and most think that they will wrap the series up in the 2nd test beginning in Port Elizabeth tonight (Thursday).

Australia opened at $2.50 after winning the 1st test, and that was quickly backed into $2.20, but a rally for the draw has seen the price ease all the way to $2.60. The draw opened at $3.50 but a couple of sizeable bets, $5000 at $3.50 and $2500 at $3.40, sparked some further interest in the draw and it is now $2.60. South Africa have been friendless in the betting, already out to $3.25 after opening at $2.60. Mitchell Johnson is the pin up boy with cricket followers at the moment, and why wouldn’t he be? Johnson opened at $6.00 to be the Man off the Match, and all bar one of the bets placed in the 1st 12 hours of trading was for him. Australia were $15 to win the series 3-0 before the 1st test, but that price has been slashed into $4.50 now, with a 2-1 series win the favourite way at $4.00.

The T/20 World Cup isn’t far away and the Aussies have also firmed to win that, now $5.00 equal fav’s with India after opening at $7.00. The other side to meet with solid support has been New Zealand, not at $9.00 after opening at $15. The Kiwi’s were impressive in their recent series against India in NZ, but their biggest problem has always been winning away from home.


RUGBY LEAGUE

The Auckland 9’s was a big hit with TattsBet customers, and it was interesting to watch how the results swung away from the obvious after the first round. Most thought that the teams who won early would continue to win, but that was proven to be completely wrong. In all only 15 of the 31 favourites were able to win, and only 11 of those were able to cover the line. The figures were more lopsided on the Sunday matches with 6 fav’s winning from the 15 matches, and only 3 of those were able to cover the handicap.

There are 2 big league games this week with the World Club Challenge and the Charity Shield. It is obvious from the squad that Wigan have sent to play the Roosters in then WCC that the English side are treating it seriously, but the big question is are they good enough? Wigan have played one Super League match and were beaten by Huddersfield. The Warriors have opened at $5.10 to beat the Roosters, with the line set at 13.5. The Roosters have named a near full strength side as well, so they should be able to notch up a win.

The Charity Shield match has been moved to Wollongong this year, and that can only help the Dragons. Both the Dragons and Souths have named good squads, but the early betting trend has been for Souths to win at $1.65, as well as -3.5. TattsBet will be also be betting on the Charity Cup, a new match-up between the Bulldogs and the Melbourne Storm, which will be played in Brisbane.


RUGBY UNION

The win by the Lions over the Cheetahs in the first week of Super Rugby could quite possibly be the upset of the season, and that has put the Cheetahs under pressure already. There will be a full round this week, and the Cheetahs host the Bulls early Saturday morning Australian time. They have opened slight favourites at $1.85 ahead of the Bulls at $1.95, and although at home they have failed to beat the Bulls in 11 attempts since 2006.

The Crusaders and the Chiefs are the $5.00 equal fav’s to win the title, and they do battle on Friday night in Christchurch. The Crusaders have been backed already at $1.55 (Chiefs $2.40), and while the Crusaders have won 6 of the 7 meetings in Christchurch, the Chiefs have won 3 of their last 4 matches, with all of those wins coming in Hamilton. The Crusaders often take a few matches to hit their peak, the Chiefs look great value.

Quade Cooper has been given the all clear to play for the Reds who have to travel to Canberra, and although the Queenslanders have won 2 from their last 3 appearances in Canberra, there isn’t the normal air of confidence around them from punters. The Reds opened at $2.50 and there isn’t a lot of interest early in the week with most of the early money for the Brumbies at $1.53. Many think that the Brumbies will struggle after losing Jake White, so although this will be their first match, they will be desperate to make a statement with a big win.


AFL

The NAB Challenge matches have proven quite popular as far as betting is concerned, but this year there have already been a lot more upsets than we have become accustomed to in previous years. The biggest surprise to date was Melbourne’s win over Richmond as $4.75 outsiders, although the Gold Coast got to $6.00 before they prevailed by a point over Essendon on Monday of this week. The Suns had been heavily backed pre-match from $1.67 into $1.50, and hit $6.00 when they trailed by 31 points early in the 3rd quarter. Normally there is a rush to back sides to win the day premiership as they win pre-season games, but that hasn’t been the case this year. Hawthorn and Fremantle still head the market at $5.00 narrowly ahead of Sydney at $5.25.

One market where there has been some spirited betting is the Coleman Medal. This opened late last week with Jack Riewoldt the $8.00 favourite ahead of Travis Cloke, Jeremy Cameron, Jarryd Roughead, Kurt Tippet, Lance Franklin and Josh Kennedy (WCE) all at $9.00. There was an immediate reaction with a bet of $1000 coming for Cloke, and another of $2000 for Kennedy. Both remain at their opening quotes as there has also been interest in Riewoldt, Roughead (won last year), Taylor Walker ($11) and Jack Gunston. Gunston opened at $17 but we moved his price into $11 after an impressive performance against the Lions, and clearly punters were also impressed as he has been one of the more popular players. One interesting piece of info is that the gun Swans pair of Tippett and Franklin have attracted only $15 worth of bets between them, and that was all for Franklin! Many think the Swans will be ‘top heavy’ in the forward line, and this suggests that the betting public are thinking along similar lines.


SUPERBIKES

The new Superbike season gets under way this weekend with 2 races to be held in Victoria at Phillip Island. Sylvain Guintoli defeated Eugene Laverty in race 1 last year, and positions were reversed in race 2. That duo are expected to be at the forefront again this season along with Tom Sykes who won the Championship last year. Veteran Marc Melandri can never be ruled out but one to keep an eye on would be Alex Lowes who recorded scintillating lap times at his first look at Phillip Island this week. Race 1 will open Thursday afternoon, and race 2 will open Saturday night.


NASCARS

The Nascar Sprint Cup season also starts this week with the Daytona 500, always one of the highlights of the motor racing calendar. Daytona hasn’t been a very good hunting ground for favourites even though Jimmie Johnson won last year, and the betting is wide open with Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth sharing the top of the market at $11. There has been early money for Dale Earnhardt Jnr and Kevin Harvick (both at $15). Several rookies have qualified fastest to be on pole down through the years and there is another youngster on pole this year with Austin Dillon ($17) set to lead the way on Monday.


HARNESS RACING

There were several upsets in the heats of the Interdominion last Saturday night, but all of the major hopes made their way through to Sunday week’s final, and there hasn’t been a lot of change to the market. Beautide remains favourite at $3.70 ahead of Smolda ($4.80) and For A Reason ($7.00), and oddly enough all three were beaten in their heats. WA pacer I’m Victorious is next in line at $8.00 and he only narrowly won his heat in the West, while Terror To Love ($9.00) won his heat in Addington, narrowly beating Smolda. TattsBet already has a number of Group 1’s open for the big meeting at Menangle, and there has been an early mover in the market to win the Ladyship Mile with Adore Me firming from $1.30 into $1.25 after some early bets, including one of $4000.


GREYHOUNDS

The 8 heats of the Australian Cup will be conducted at The Meadows on Saturday night, and there will also be 3 heats of the Superstayers on the same program. Zelemar Fever won the Temlee last Saturday night as second favourite, but will be healthy odds in heat 5 of the Cup after drawing out in box 7. Farmor Las Vegas has drawn well in box 1 and is certain to start an odds on favourite.

TattsBet will also be offering a fixed odds market on the Vince Curry Memorial final at Ipswich on Saturday night. This series is the richest maiden race for greyhounds in the world, and the box draw has opened it right up. Victorian Clash of Kings has been impressive in both wins during the series, and should start the favourite after drawing box 3.


BETS OF INTEREST

$5,000 at $3.50 Draw in 2nd Test South Africa v Australia
$8,000 at $3.50 Brazil to win Soccer World Cup

$200 at 183/1 Multi – won $36,832

SR02 – Ecuador at $1.60
SR05 – El Roca at $2.70
MR02 – Akzar at $2.90
MR03 – Sino Eagle at $4.20
MR06 – Hucklebuck at $3.50