Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - September 19

AFL

There has been a lot of talk this week about ‘Kennett’s Curse’, the hoodoo that Geelong seemingly have over Hawthorn, but to say that punters have distanced themselves from that would be an understatement. When the betting opened on this match Hawthorn were $1.55, but an avalanche of support has seen that price crash into $1.40 already, and they seem destined to firm even further. The biggest bet to date has been $14,000 at $1.42 but there have been a series of bets between $5000 and $10,000 on the Hawks since the markets went up. Normally in finals matches the bet ratios are heavily weighted towards the outsiders but for some reason that never happens in preliminary finals, and it has been similar with this week’s 2 matches. There are bets coming through for Geelong but after 5 days of betting the largest of those has only been $500.

Betting on the Fremantle v Swans game is also showing a trend heavily in favour of Fremantle who have firmed from $1.30 into $1.25, but on this occasion there are twice as many bets for Sydney at $4.05 than Fremantle. There is a small fortune going through multi’s on the Hawthorn/Fremantle combination so if Hawthorn do win, Fremantle will automatically shorten up.

Hawthorn are the standout side as far as flag betting goes as well this week. The largest of the Hawthorn bets has been $12,000 at $2.10, but there are dozens of bets around the $2,000 mark coming in. Fremantle has their share of support at $3.25 but if they both win, Fremantle may not be much shorter than that in the Grand Final anyway.

Gary Ablett is the player that punters are looking to in next Monday’s Brownlow Medal, and oddly enough he has come in from $1.85 to $1.70 after winning the Players Association Award last week, which has nothing to do with the Brownlow. Ablett beat Joel Selwood by over 1000 votes in that award, and that has seen interest dry up for Selwood in the Brownlow. He is the solid 2nd favourite at $4.00 but there has been more interest in 3rd favourite Scott Pendlebury at $7.00. TattsBet has a host of bet types open on the Brownlow Medal and will be betting live on the winner book throughout the count.


NRL

Manly played in a very physical match against the Roosters last week, and although they are also coming off a short back-up, punters think that they will eliminate the Sharks on Friday night. The Sea Eagles have been a huge go in this match, with the first bet being $10,000 for them at $1.35 and a sustained push has seen them into $1.28 by Thursday. Cronulla have never really been a side that punters like to be on, and they have been really hard to sell in this game and have drifted from $3.10 out to $3.85. The line of -8.5 in favour of Manly has also been crunched into $1.80 and the signs are there that it may even start double figures.

Melbourne Storm host Newcastle on Saturday night and in contrast to the Manly game, Newcastle have a lot of support in the betting ranks. Melbourne are into $1.35 after opening at $1.38, but Newcastle are proving quite popular at $3.30 and also with the 8.0 points start. The Sydney Roosters are the premiership favourites for the moment at $3.00 ahead of Souths ($3.25), Melbourne ($4.75) and Manly at $6.25, but if the results go the way of Manly and Melbourne this week, the betting will be close on both of next week’s matches. That would explain the betting trends this week as we have taken more bets for Melbourne and Manly than the 2 favourites. That would suggest that if the matchups go that way next week, there will be very little separating the sides in the betting.

Locally, Northern Pride play the Mackay Cutters in Sunday’s Intrust Super Cup Preliminary final. The game will be shown live on Channel 9 and Tattsbet will be betting live throughout. Northern Pride have been odds on to win the title for several months, but went down to the rampaging Easts Tigers last week, so now have to do it the hard way. The game will be played at Langlands Park in Brisbane and Pride are the $1.50 favourites with the Cutters at $2.55. Easts have the week off and are into $1.65 to win the title now.


FORMULA 1

The Singaporean F1 Grand Prix is one of the most popular on the calendar each year with TattsBet punters, and this year’s running doesn’t appear to be any different. The fact that the race makes for spectacular viewing due to the racing being held under lights has to be the major factor, and even though it is held at the same time that races are held in Europe, it seems as though a lot more Aussie fans take an active interest.

Sebastian Vettel is the form driver as far as F1 goes having won 6 races already this season, and is going for 3 in a row this week. Vettel also has fantastic credentials in Singapore having won the last 2 years and was runner-up to Fernando Alonso in 2010. TattsBet opened Vettel at $2.25 for this week’s race and the first bet was $5.000. That saw a change in price to $2.20 and another bet of $5000 arrived, so he is expected to win. Having said that we have seen solid support for Lewis Hamilton ($4.25) and Alonso at $4.50, with Nico Rosberg ($15) the only other driver to meet with any decent support early in the week. Mark Webber is at $10 and has his usual list of followers supporting him. Webber has been placed in Singapore on a couple of occasions and has recorded fast times in qualifying on the circuit, so he must be rated a top 3 chance at least.


NASCAR

Chicago was the first race in the ‘Chase for the Sprint Cup’ series, and it went to Matt Kenseth who started well up in the betting at $7.00. Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson started the race as $6.00 favourites just ahead of Kenseth. The last 2 winners of this race in Chicago have gone on to win the Sprint Cup, and Kenseth is now a $3.00 chance.

This week’s race will be in New Hampshire, and several of the major hopes have won races here over the past decade. Brian Vickers ($17) won here earlier in the season after Kyle Busch ($6.00) qualified fastest, while Jimmie Johnson ($6.00) and Kasey Kahne ($7.00) had wins here in 2010 and 2012 respectively.


V8 SUPERCARS

The first of the V8 enduro races for the season was held at Sandown last Sunday, and the market proved a very accurate guide to the finishing order. Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) had been favourite all week at $3.50 and was into $3.25 come race time. After qualifying fastest Car 6 (Will Davison/Owen) started slight favourite at $2.75 but they had to be content with 3rd place behind Whincup and Dumbrell. The only other combo to gain real attention was Car 888 (Lowndes/Luff) at $4.25, and they finished in 2nd place.

The next race will be Bathurst in October, and betting is open. Car 1 opens the favourite again at $2.80 having won Bathurst last year, and clearly is the car to beat. Car 888 is the one to beat as Lowndes has a fantastic record at Bathurst having won there 5 times before, 3 of those when driving with Whincup, but that was in a Ford. As the race approaches we will have a host of additional bet types available.


CRICKET

The Australian Ashes tour has finished, but cricket enthusiasts will be well catered for in the coming months, and it all begins this week with the T/20 Champions League in India. Tattsbet will be betting on all matches, but the 2 Australian sides, Brisbane Heat and Perth Scorchers, will have their work cut out to win the title. We all know how difficult it is to win in India, and the local sides dominate the market to win the title. Chennai head the list at $3.75 ahead of Mumbai ($5.00), Rajasthan ($6.50) and Hyderabad at the same odds, while Brisbane and Perth are well down the betting at $15 and $17 respectively.

The Australian cricket season has had a makeover with the Ryobi Cup, the 50 over one day matches, now played in the month of October, with all matches played in Sydney. Very little separates all 6 states in the betting with NSW and Victoria the opening favourites at $4.50, and the other 4 states all at $5.50. It will be interesting to see whether the betting public get behind the earlier start.


GREYHOUNDS

The South Australian Derby will be held at Angle Park on Thursday night, and while 5 Victorians have made it through to the final, the 3 locals to make the final all have undeniable chances. Race favourite will be Tonk, one of the Victorians, which has drawn the coveted red box. Tonk has recent fast wins at Sandown and Ballarat, and although he can be a little tardy early, he should get a nice run behind the expected leader, Ernie Bung Arrow. Ernie has a real cult following in South Australia due to his name, and he has won 10 from 11 starts, leading all of the way in those wins.


GOLF

The Tour Championship, the final round in the FedEx playoffs, gets under way at East Lake GC, Atlanta, Georgia on Thursday night, and several of the main chances played themselves into form in the BMW last weekend. That event went to Zach Johnson who had a 2 shot victory over Nick Watney, but Jason Day, Luke Donald and Hunter Mahan all had good final rounds as well. That augurs well for this week with the top 30 point scorers pairing off, and although Tiger Woods is the $5.50 favourite to win the Tour Championship, there are at least a dozen other players that have met with really good support. Those include Adam Scott ($12), Phil Mickelson ($13), Jason Day ($19) and Hunter Mahan ($19), while last year’s winner, Brandt Snedeker is another with plenty of bets under his name at $21.

The Italian Open is the European Tour event this week and it is an Italian who heads the market. Matteo Manassero is the $13 favourite, and although this will be the first time in many, many years that the event will be played at the Golf Club Torino, Manassero is desperate to win his national title, and di finish 3rd last year behind 2 time winner Gonzalo Fernandez Castono who is popular at $21 to win again. The other main hope in our book is another Italian, Francesco Molinari ($15), another previous winner at another course in 2006. The big advantage for Molinari this week is that he will be playing on his home course, and that alone should make him very hard to beat.


MIXED MARTIAL ARTS (MMA)

TattsBet is back betting on the UFC events, and the bouts for the upcoming weekend are open for business. There clear favourites in 4 of the 5 events open, but the fight that has attracted the most early business is the closest as far as betting is concerned. Matt Mitrione is the slight $1.83 favourite over Brendan Schaub at $1.95, and although there has been betting both ways, the bigger bets have been for Schaub.

Brisbane Entertainment Centre will be hosting a major UFC event on December 7 this year, and TattsBet will have all of those bouts covered.