Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - September 12

AFL

Following on from 3 of the 4 outsiders winning in week 1 of the AFL finals, there is plenty of money around to say that the underdogs will win again this week.

Port Adelaide provided one of the upsets of the year when they disposed of Collingwood last week, and although they take on Geelong who were equal flag fav’s last week, there is a staggering amount of interest in Port to win again. The Power have been $4.00 all week but the ratio of bets coming for them to win as opposed to Geelong is 10-1. Those bets are mostly made up of smaller amounts but it seems as though Port are the side that have been ‘adopted’ by those whose clubs are out of the race. Although the bet numbers favour Port, the bigger bets have been for the Cats including a couple of early ones of $6000 at $1.25 and another of $5000 on the line of -25.5. Port have also been backed to win over $250,000 in flag betting this week which has seen their price come in from $34 to $26. Geelong are $4.00 (out from $2.75) after last week’s loss but will now have to do it the hard way, and if they win this week they will meet Hawthorn in a preliminary final.

Carlton surprised many last week by beating Richmond, and while they may have been fortunate to be participating in the finals due to Essendon being thrown out of the series, they are popular to beat Sydney this week. The Swans faded badly against Hawthorn last week, and although they may get Adam Goodes back this week, the match is at ANZ Stadium, and they do not play at their best there. The wider and heavy ground do not suit them, and punters have been wary in taking the $1.35. Carlton on the other hand have attracted 3 times as many bets at $3.25, and twice as many bets than the Swans on the line of +20.5, so there is a chance they may shorten a little. Carlton are $26 to win the flag, and while there has been a sprinkling of interest in them this week, most of the premiership money has been for Hawthorn at $2.25. At least Hawthorn and Fremantle ($3.50) will be definitely be there after this weekend’s matches, who knows who they will meet next week!


NRL

There is little doubt that season 2013 is the most open ever in the NRL, and the premiership betting proves that. The sides that make up the top 4 are priced closely together with Melbourne and Souths at $3.75, just ahead of the Roosters ($4.00) and Manly at $4.50. All 4 sides have been backed this week, and in all probability the price for the 2 winning sides this week will nearly halve, but the trick is to find those winners. Outside of the top 4, the Cowboys have been a mover, into $17 after starting the week at $19.

Week 1 of the finals is a promoters dream, and each of the matches could go either way. Souths have a terrible record against Melbourne having lost 14 of their last 15 meetings, but have been backed from $1.92 into slight fav’s at $1.90, including one bet of $10,000. Cronulla have a couple of key injury concerns going into their match against the rampant Cowboys, but that hasn’t deterred a couple of Sharks fans. In amongst the early betting were bets of $10,000 and $5000 for the Sharks at $1.77, but Cowboys supporters have been more than happy to take the $2.10 for their side. There is some talk that Brett Stewart will be unable to take his place in the Manly side but once again that hasn’t put many off. Another $10,000 bet has arrived on this game for Manly at $2.10, and they are now $2.05 against the Roosters who are out to $1.80. The Bulldogs have been hot and cold all season are were cold against the Broncos last week but are the shortest of the favourites this week. After opening at $1.60, a surge of early support saw that price cut marginally to $1.58 with Newcastle out to $2.45. Just like all 3 preceding games, this could go either way.

Tattsbet has a few ’Player Specials’ open for the finals. The Clive Churchill Medal, voted as the best player for the Grand Final, is open already. Naturally with all eight sides eligible, there are some big prices on some of the top names, but as we have already pointed out, trying to work out who will play in this year’s final is a nightmare. We also have open the ‘top points scorer’ and ‘most tries’ markets for the final series, and again it is proving a difficult task with some teams naturally not progressing past week 1, others to get the second week off, and only two going through to the final.


RUGBY UNION

Australia were woeful against South Africa at Suncorp last Saturday night, and while you would expect that they should be far too good for Argentina in Perth this week, Wallabies fans have been giving them a wide berth in the betting. The Wallabies opened at $1.20 with the Pumas at $4.50 but the bulk of the early support has been for Argentina to win and also at the line of 10.5 points start. That has moved into 9.5 and the win price is also on the move, now $4.25, and although Australia have won 10 of their last 11 tests against Argentina, the Pumas showed enough in their 28-13 loss to New Zealand last week to say they will be competitive this week.

The other Rugby Championship match between New Zealand and South Africa should be a blockbuster. One punter this week placed $10,000 on New Zealand to win the title at $1.45 and for that to happen they will be looking for a win at Eden Park. It won’t be an easy task even though the All Blacks have opened at $1.33, and punters agree as the Springboks have plenty of admirers at $3.25 and also with the 7 points start at the line. Richie McCaw is out of the New Zealand side, but the All Blacks have a fantastic record against South Africa having won 6 of their last 7 meetings (home and away) as well as 14 of the last 16 matches played in New Zealand. New Zealand took an eternity to put away Argentina last week while South Africa had a huge win over Australia, so everything points towards the Springboks going very close on Saturday night.


GOLF

Simon Dyson has won the KLM Open (Dutch Open) on three previous occasions, and he has been very well backed to make it four wins this week. Dyson shares favouritism at $17 along with Ross Fisher, and Fisher also has form on the course at Zandvoort having won in 2007. Two of Dyson’s three wins have been when the KLM was held on this course (2006,2009) with his other win coming in 2011.Miguel Angel Jiminez and Joost Luiten have also been popular and share the next line of betting at $19, while Nicolas Colsaerts ($23), Matteo Manassero ($26) and Aussie Marcus Fraser ($51) are others who have been backed as well.

The FedEx Cup playoffs continue in the USA this week with the running of the BMW Championship at Conway Farms GC, Lake Forest, Illinois.

The three top points scorers, Henrik Stenson, Tiger Woods and Adam Scott have been paired together, and that trio have also been the best backed to win. The 70 player field will be culled to 30 for next week’s Playoffs finale, and Woods is the $7.00 favourite ahead of Scott ($13) and Stenson at $14. Stenson won the Deutsche Bank Championship 2 weeks ago and has been in sparkling form this year. Jason Day, Sergio Garcia (both $34) and Brandt Snedeker ($41) are others who have met with solid support, but surprisingly there hasn’t been much interest shown in Luke Donald, a $41 chance. Donald is a member at Conway Farms, so would be expected to know the course very well, so must be rated amongst the better hopes.


NASCAR

Cal Edwards ($23) won the Nascar race at Richmond Raceway last week and continued on with the upsets. While Edwards was neglected in the betting, there was heavy support for Kyle Busch ($5.00) and Jimmie Johnson ($6.00) but both were unplaced. This was the last chance for drivers to earn a spot in the ‘Chase for the Championship’, with the top 12 drivers doing battle within the last 12 Sprint Cup races of the season.

This week the action will be in Chicago and Jimmie Johnson is again the favourite at $5.00 ahead of Busch and Matt Kenseth ($7.00). Busch is a previous winner in Chicago (20080 and Kenseth did qualify fastest here in 2011 before Tony Stewart went on to win the race. this week and also. Others to attract some early support include Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards, both at $11.


V8 SUPERCARS

The ‘enduro’ races in the V8 Supercar season get underway at Sandown this week with the running of the Sandown 500. There has been a lot of controversy since racing at Winton a couple of weeks ago when the Nissan and Mercedes cars were allowed to race on blended fuel, and it clearly made a difference with a couple of big plunges landed. Racing returns to normal this week with all cars running with the regular 85% ethanol blend, and all will be required to make at least 4 pitstops. As is always the case when there are 2 drivers in these races, all betting will be done by car numbers, and Car1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) is the opening $3.50 favourite ahead of Car 888 (Lowndes/Luff). The Lowndes/Luff combo won this race last year and Craig Lowndes has an affinity with the Sandown circuit having won there a record 5 times. Due to the nature of the race (161 laps) where have been several cars backed in early trading including Car 22 (Courtney/Murphy)at $15, Car 2 (Tander/Percat), also at $15 and Car 12 (Mostert/Wood) at $41. Betting will be suspended while practise and qualifying sessions take place on Friday and Saturday and will re-open as soon as those sessions are finished.


SUPERBIKES

With only 4 meetings to go in the Superbike season Tom Sykes ($1.55) is in the box seat to win the title. Second pick Sylvain Guintoli ($3.75) dislocated his collarbone in Germany at the last meeting but is expected to be fit enough to ride this week in Istanbul. This will be the first time that the Superbikes have raced in turkey but they did have motoGP races there from 2005 through to 2007 and the results are worth noting. Marco Melandri won 2 of those races in 2005 and 2006 before finishing 5th in 2007, so that must surely give him some confidence this week. Melandri is at $3.50 to win race 1, with Sykes the $3.25 favourite. Sykes is in form having won race 1 in Germany with the other race going to Jonathan Rea who is at $13 to win this week.


MotoGP

Jorge Lorenzo returned to the winners list in the British motoGP a couple of weeks ago, thus ending the 4 race winning streak of Marco Marquez. Both Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa look to be over their injured collarbones as Pedrosa finished third in the British GP. Marquez has opened at $2.05 to win this week in San Marino ahead of Lorenzo at $2.75, Pedrosa at $5.50 and Valentino Rossi at $10.00. Lorenzo has won the past 2 San Man Marino GP’s, Pedrosa won in2010 and Rossi won the previous 2 years when he was in his prime. It is interesting to note that Pedrosa has been the most popular in early betting but the race is on the quiet side, it seems as though most will wait for the first of the qualifying sessions before making their mind up.


GREYHOUNDS

Tattsbet continues its coverage of major Group races for the greyhounds, and there are several races to be covered this week.

Thursday night we will be covering the heats of the South Australian Derby and the Oaks final at Angle Park, the Shepparton Cup is to be run on Friday night as is The Megastar at Dapto, the Chairmans Cup at Wentworth Park on Saturday night, and it all culminates Sunday with the running of the Canberra Cup. The SA Derby heats have attracted top class youngsters from all over the country including Victorians Kiss Me Ketut and Tomac Bale while boom Tasmanian sprinter Hellyeah Bolt will take on another Victorian speedster in Allen Makoto in heat 3. The Oaks final has been thrown open a bit with Xylia Allen ($2.25) drawn awkwardly in box 5. She was most unlucky in her heat when a fast finishing second to Kokoda Spirit, and Kokoda Spirit ($3.75) again looks the one to beat as she is the likely leader.

The Megastar has drawn together a hot field, and although Zulu Zeus nearly broke the Dapto record in a trial last week, he has drawn out in box 8 and that is not always a good draw around the tight Dapto circuit. Zulu Zeus is the opening $2.50 favourite but the Victorians Proven Nitro ($4.50)and Peter Rocket ($5.00) have drawn well in boxes 1 and 2 respectively, and you can never right of Queensland champ Glen Gallon ($6.50) who has drawn well in box 3 after also recording a fast time in a trial on the track last week.


TENNIS

Rafael Nadal,Novak Djokovic, Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka were the first two in the betting for both men’s and women’s titles at the US Open for several weeks, so it was only fitting that they played off in their respective finals. Nadal went into the men’s final as clear public elect at $1.65 with Djokovic at $2.25, while Serena Williams had been odds on since betting opened several months ago and eventually started at $1.22 before beating Azarenka in three sets.

The US Open was the last Major for 2013 but Tattsbet has already opened the 2014 Australian Open for the women, and the men’s title will be up and running later today. Serena Williams has to be favourite, but there haven’t been any early takers at the $2.40, however there has already been interest in Azarenka at $3.50 and Maria Sharapova at $7.50. Sharapova missed the US Open with a shoulder injury, but has plenty of time on her side to get it right before January. Veteran Li Na is next in the betting at $13, while Sam Stosur is at $26 along with American youngster Sloane Stephens who was the giant killer in last year’s Aussie Open.


TATTSBET TWIST

$5 for Greg Inglis to score a try v Melbourne. *Account Betting only (Internet & app), Max. bet per Account Customer: $50, 5:00pm to 7:00pm AEST Friday 13 September or until the max. cap of $50,000 is reached.