Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - August 8

RUGBY LEAGUE 

South Sydney came back to earth with a thud last week when going down to the Cowboys, and have now had to add John Sutton to their injury list. Sutton has always been a quiet achiever and has had a fantastic year, and on top of losing Greg Inglis, the Rabbitohs go into Friday night’s clash with Melbourne as lengthy priced underdogs. Melbourne were back to their awesome best last week when they thrashed Canberra, and the results from last weekend saw the Storm open at $1.36 against Souths, but that didn’t last long. Betting has settled at $1.32 with Souths at $3.45, and punters are also happy to take the -8.5 as well. Melbourne displaced Souths on the second line of premiership betting, firming from $5.50 into $3.75, just behind the Roosters at $3.25, while Souths have eased from $3.50 out to $4.75. Manly have crept right into commission now at $6.00 and look on target for a top 4 finish.

It is hard to believe that the biggest early mover this week has been Parramatta, but that is the case! The Eels take on Wests Tigers who have their own problems both on and off the field. The betting opened at $1.90 apiece, but the news that Jarryd Hayne is likely to be back for Parra has seen then backed all the way down to $1.60 with the Tigers drifting out to $2.35. Parramatta might win, but they do seem priced up to their very best here.

Canberra were woeful at home to Melbourne last week and punters are tipping it won’t get much better this week. The Raiders travel to Sydney to take on the Roosters who are red hot $1.16 shots to win, but there has been a big early push for the Roosters to also cover the line of -14.5. A similar thing has happened in the Monday night game with the Titans virtually friendless against the Bulldogs. Canterbury opened at $1.18 but have firmed into $1.16, and the line of -14.5 has also met with solid support. The Titans have a huge list of injuries, and while they can still make the finals, they have a torrid run home as the season draws to a close.

AFL

Round 19 of AFL looked predictable on paper but it certainly didn’t turn out that way with upset wins to Richmond and North Melbourne, while Fremantle were another side to win as the outsiders, but were only $2.00. The losses suffered by Hawthorn and Geelong have seen a reshuffle to the premiership market this week with Sydney joining Hawthorn at the head of proceedings at $3.25, just ahead of Geelong at $3.75. There is plenty of action coming through on the flag as the season draws to a close, and 2 of the bigger bets last week were $4000 for Hawthorn at $2.90 and $5000 FOR Geelong at $3.50 before both were beaten. Fremantle’s win over Carlton has them on track for a top 4 berth, and maybe even a top 2 finish, but punters have been apprehensive to back them and they still remain well behind the others at $6.50. The same applies to Richmond with very few takers at $21 even though they have cemented a place in the finals.

Gary Ablett remains the $1.50 favourite to win another Brownlow Medal, but Dane Swan is emerging from the pack. The Collingwood mid-fielder is into $7.00 second favourite, and Collingwood have a soft run into the finals, so he should continue to get votes. Sydney’s Kieran Jack is the other main mover this week, into $13, and has been talked up in several media circles as the one to beat. With Ablett being so short, Tattsbet has opened a market without Ablett. It is self-explanatory, but basically ignores whatever score Ablett finishes on. For this market we have included players who are ineligible to win the Medal, and one of those, Nathan Fyfe, is $5.00 behind Dane Swan who is $4.50.

There are a lot of one sided matches this week, and the price for all favourites to win using Wednesday’s prices as a guide was $6.80, and it hasn’t been that low for a couple of months. One sided games always mean that the level of interest in the lines goes up a notch, and we have seen that this week. The best backed sides on the line have been Geelong and the Gold Coast at their respective minuses, while there has been early money for the Giants at +74.5 against Fremantle. The Dockers are always a chance of resting players at this stage of the season, and they do have a habit of not winning by massive margins, so the money for the Giants is understandable. Geelong attracted plenty of early action including bets of $4500 and $4000 conceding 35.5 points to Port Adelaide, while betting has taken a similar trend on the Gold Coast Suns (-35.5) who host Melbourne.

RUGBY UNION 

The Chiefs had to do it the hard way to win the Super Rugby final last week, but they were able to make it two titles in a row. The final was a frantic betting affair, and although the Chiefs went is the $1.33 favourites, the Brumbies had been backed from $3.80 into $3.30, and just as much was placed on them with 8.5 start, so at least those who took the line were happy.

The Rugby Championship is the next big event on the calendar, and the first match will be played on August 17 between the Wallabies and the ALL Blacks. While the betting on that match has been relatively quiet, most of what has been taken to date has been for New Zealand who are in from $1.47 to $1.44 while Australia have eased to $2.75.That betting is similar to what it was in game 1 last year, and New Zealand won that match (also in Sydney), 27-19. New Zealand are $1.28 to win the title, and on last years form it is hard to see how they can be beaten. The All Blacks won all 6 matches on the fixture, although they did draw the 3rd Bledisloe Cup game in Brisbane after the Rugby Championship was wrapped up. Australia and South Africa are equal second elects at $6.00 with Argentina the bolter of the comp at $101. The Pumas failed to win a match last year, but did get a draw against South Africa in Mendoza when 8 point underdogs. South Africa failed to win a game away from home, but subsequently had a successful tour of the northern hemisphere (4 wins from 4 games), and recently romped to nice wins against Italy, Scotland and Samoa in June. The Wallabies have a new coach in Ewen McKenzie, and that will mean that Quade Cooper is likely to be back in the fold, but they will be eager to get Pocock and Higginbotham make from injury to give the team some grunt.

GOLF 

Tiger Woods is $4.50 to bag his 15th Major this week, and on the form he displayed in the Bridgestone Invitational last week, he may well get the win.

Woods was $7.00 to win the US PGA Championship prior to last week’s event, but after he annihilated a similar field to this week, he is now into $4.50, and punters are happy to take that. It was the 8th time that Tiger had won the Bridgestone, and while he has won the PGA four times before, none of those wins have been at Oak Hill. Shaun Micheel was the winner of the most recent PGA Championship played at oak Hill, and that was back in 2003. Micheel has been out of form for several years, and is $501 to win again this year. Although the course is a par 70, it will be crucial to be accurate as the rough is think, and many of the fairways are tree-lined. The year that Micheel won Tiger finished outside of the top 20, so that must give supporters of other players some hope! Rory McIlroy is the defending champion, but most of his form this year has been woeful, and he has been ignored by most as a $34 pop. Adam Scott ($15) and Phil Mickelson ($16) are in the market behind Tiger, and while both were at the head of things recently in the British Open (Mickelson won), those behind them in the betting have been more popular. Brandt Snedeker ($26), Henrik Stenson ($26), Jason Day, Jason Dufner and Hunter Mahan (all $31) have all been backed to win similar amounts to Tiger, while Zac Johnson ($61-$41) is another who has been specked at longer odds. Adam Scott has had a terrific year and is $1.75 to head the Aussie contingent with Jason Day the second choice at $4.00.

CRICKET 

Australia an probably consider themselves a little unlucky not to have won the 3rd test at Old Trafford, but the rain was always tipped to be a major factor, and that is how it panned out. The drawn test means that England hold on to the Urn, at least until the summer when Australia must now be a real chance of winning them back. As far as the current series is concerned, England to win 3-0 is now the $3.25 favourite ahead of a 4-0 win at $3.50, so the betting there says that Australia are unlikely to win one of the 2 remaining tests. The signs were there in the 3rd test that say a win may not be too far away, and the early money on the 4th test is for Australia. After opening at $4.00 they were quickly into $3.75, which saw England ease from $2.00 out to $2.10. This will be the first time an Ashes test will be played at Durham, and the mail is that it will suit the pacemen. Many would argue that there isn’t a lot between the two sides in that regard, and up until the last test, it had been the batsman, particularly the top order, who hadn’t been able to fire.

NASCAR 

Nascar racing moves to the road course at Watkins Glen this week, and all Aussie Nascar enthusiasts will be eagerly awaiting Monday’s race. Marcos Ambrose gets an opportunity to put Australia on the map again as his form around this course is exception. The road course suits Ambrose as he has a V8 Supercar background, and he fully deserves the $3.00 tag we have put on him having won there the last 2 years. That is a fantastic form-line but it gets more imposing when you consider that he was placed in all 4 of his previous starts there! The track shape makes it difficult for those who prefer the oval tracks, but a few of the bigger names have adapted in the past, particularly the Burt brothers. Kurt finished 3rd at Pocono last week and has been in good form recently. He has been placed at Watkins Glen in the past and must be given a strong each way hope at $13 along with Brad Keselowski ($11) who was runner-up to Ambrose here the last 2 years.

ELECTIONS 

The betting markets on elections have historically been an extremely accurate pointer towards the final result, and for the time being it appears as though Australia will have a change of government after the September 7 election. Tattsbet has had a market open to win the election for several months, and the Coalition have been favourites all the way through. Labor touched $8.00 under Julia Gillard, but as soon as Kevin Rudd took the reins back, Labor got as short as $2.80. The day that the election was called the Coalition were $1.28 with Labor at $3.60 but as the week has progressed the Coalition have firmed into $1.25 with Labor out slightly to $4.00.

Tattsbet also has several other bet types open on the election as well as several of the key seats in each state or territory. Naturally there will be a big focus on those marginal seats as that is where the election will be won or lost. Our Twitter account @tatts_sports will have daily updates on the trends, price moves and any bets of note. Unfortunately due to local government regulations customers in South Australia and Queensland will be unable to bet into the markets, hopefully that decision is changed before polling day.

GREYHOUNDS 

The Meadows in Victoria will be the host track for this year’s National Sprint and Distance finals. The Victorian heats will be conducted this Saturday night, while the other States will have their respective finals in the coming days. Tattsbet will be offering fixed odds on all of those races, with both Queensland and South Australian finals due to be run tonight (Thursday. In Queensland, veteran Glen Gallon is the $1.65 to win the sprint final while Rylees Reign is the $1.90 to win the distance final. Glen Gallon recently won the Group 1 Winter Cup at Albion Park, and should make his way through to the national final. In South Australia, the box draw has made their sprint final an interesting affair, while any potential scratchings will shape the market in the long race. Kalden Mayhem missed out on qualifying last week and is now the first reserve, so will need a scratching to get into the final. If he misses the final, Allen Bardolf ($3.25) looks the one to beat after an impressive heat win while Hopes Up ($2.70) is the one to beat in the sprint final after overcoming some severe buffeting to win last week.