Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - August 29

AFL

Essendon are out of the finals for this year, and that has opened the door for 5 sides to grab the last spot in the 8. All of a sudden several of the matches this week take on greater importance as those 5 teams can now play on into September, and that has sparked interest in a couple of games that would have been quiet. Carlton are now in the box seat, and a win against Port Adelaide will ensure a finals berth for the Blues. In a good betting game, Carlton have come in marginally from $2.12 to $2.08, and look on track to firm even further. The Kangaroos are near on unbeatable at Etihad but their form elsewhere leaves a lot to be desired. With the door temporarily opened for them, the Roos are really popular at $2.45 to beat Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday. One punter thinks that not only will they make the 8, they can go all the way as after Essendon were kicked out of the finals he placed $1000 on the Kangaroos at $101.

Fremantle have a history of resting players late in the season, and with the same likely to happen again this week, St Kilda have been a big firmer to beat them. Nobody can blame the Dockers for that strategy as they will have to travel to Victoria 2 weeks running, and the Saints will have 3 players who will be playing for the last time, so they will be keen to get a win. St Kilda opened at $5.00 but by Wednesday night were into $3.50 with Freo out to $1.30. All eyes will be on who boards the plane from Perth to Melbourne on Thursday night!

It seems certain that the Swans will play Hawthorn in week one of the finals, so bragging rights are up for grabs when the pair meet this Friday night. Sydney’s form at ANZ has never been the best, and with talk abounding that they themselves may be resting a few players who have niggles, Hawthorn have firmed from $1.70 into $1.50 before the sides have been announced, while Sydney have been virtually unwanted as they drift out to $2.55. The other game of the round that will be the focus of a lot of attention is Essendon v Richmond. The Tigers are in the finals and $1.33 to win this one, but historically it is dangerous to back Richmond when they are warm favourites. It will be intriguing to see how Essendon come up after the events of the past few days but it seems as though most punters think they will be up for a big performance as twice as many bets have been placed on Essendon ($3.25) than there have been for Richmond. Maybe the Bombers can finish the season in a blaze of glory?

RUGBY LEAGUE 

It is amazing that a match that the NRL thought would be so unpopular that they decided to move is shaping as one of the best betting games of this week’s round, but that is the case. Monday night’s Parramatta v Dragons game was this week moved from ANZ to Parramatta, but ironically it has been a real heavyweight betting contest with money for both sides. The Eels were $2.10 outsiders before the move, but on the back of that announcement as well as Jarryd Hayne coming back into the side, Parramatta have firmed into $1.85. While that move has been going on, St George Illawarra have continuously attracted support as they eased out, probably because they were playing the Eels, considered by many to be the easy-beats of the competition.

While neither of those sides will appear in the finals, there is still a real logjam at the bottom part of the 8, and the Eels game is the only one on this week’s fixture that can’t impact on any position in the final 8 makeup. The Cowboys travel to Cronulla to try and continue on their winning way, and they have been well supported to win again. Five weeks ago the Cowboys were $11 to make the finals, and sacked Neil Henry. They have gone on a 4 game winning streak, and if they can win their final 2 games, that will get them to 28 points which should be enough. In the last 2 weeks they have been backed to win close to $200,000 in premiership betting, now into $31, but for that to happen the winning run will have to extend to 10 games as they will have to win 4 finals, all away from home. After opening at $2.60 to beat Cronulla this week, the first few days of trading saw that price cut to $2.45, and even that may be hard to get by Sunday.

The unexpected loss by the Roosters on Monday night has seen their title price ease out to $4.00, but we certainly haven’t written them off. In fact that loss to the Sharks may have been the wake-up call needed as the finals approach, but it has sparked renewed interest in Melbourne to win again. In all likelihood Melbourne will have to play their first final in Sydney but that hasn’t put many off as they have been the standout in premiership betting this week at $3.25.

ELECTION 

With a little over a week to go before we all head to the polls on September 7, the Coalition are now into their shortest price since betting opened. The Coalition were as short as $1.07 when Julia Gillard still led Labor, and got out to $1.40 in the days after she was replaced by Kevin Rudd, but the price has continually dropped since then to be $1.04 on Thursday with Labor out to $11. We do continue to see small bets come for Labor but the bigger bets (including one of $8000) have been for the Coalition. Naturally for the Opposition to win they have to win a lot of the key marginal seats around the country, and the trend has been in their favour in most of those as well.

Coalition candidates have been backed from outsiders to favourites in the key seats of Eden-Monaro and Kingsford Smith (both NSW) as well as the seats of Brisbane and Forde in Queensland. Even in Kevin Rudd’s own seat of Griffith there has been a push for Bill Glasson ($7.00-$3.60) to win, and there have been similar other moves for Coalition candidates in several seats where they were outsiders. There has been a lot of interest in several of the exotic markets with the most popular being the ‘total Coalition Seats’ market. With the Coalition getting into prohibitive odds to win the election, most of the betting on this option has been focused on them to win 91-100 seats ($4.00-$2.35) and 100+ seats ($7.50-$4.00), which suggests a whitewash.

CRICKET 

There wasn’t a lot of joy for Australia in the recently concluded Ashes series in the UK, but there were enough signs there to say that there is a strong chance that the Ashes might only be on loan. Tattsbet has opened the market up on the next series and while England opened at $2.10 to win the bets of 5 series, the early money has been for the Aussies at $2.40, with a ‘drawn series’ priced at $5.25.

England and Australia have a little wait before that Ashes series gets under way, but the current tour continues this week with two T/20 games before a ODI series. The first of the T/20 games will be on early Friday morning Australian time, and as is usually the case in these games, there isn’t much between the 2 sides in the betting. Australia opened at $2.05 but were quickly backed into $2.00 with England out to $1.80 from $1.75. Tattstbet is also covering the 3 match T/20 series between the English and Australian women with game 2 due to get under way Thursday night. England are $1.72 to win after winning the first match with Australia at $2.10.

GOLF 

Adam Scott came from the clouds to win The Barclays last week, and looks a big chance to make it 2 wins in a row this week. Scott went into The Barclays on the second line of betting at $15 but didn’t attract anywhere near the support that he had been getting all year. While he was always in touch with the leaders he came into the last day 6 shots behind leader Matt Kuchar, and had blown out to $51. There were a few small bets for him at that quote but he was still a good result.

Those who missed out last week have surfaced to back the Aussie in the Deutsche Bank Championship, the second week of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Scott has been rock solid in the betting at $11 behind Tiger Woods ($8.00) but it appears as though Tiger may have a slight back injury as he pulled out of the charity event held at the course earlier in the week. Both are previous winners of the event with Tiger winning in 2006 and Scott in 2003, and Tiger also finished 3rd last year behind Rory McIlroy. The Irishman has been backed to make it back to back titles at $15 as has Phil Mickelson at the same quote, and there has only been scattered interest in the rest of the field apart from the top 4 in betting. One player capable of an upset is Webb Simpson ($31) who is another previous winner having won in 2011, and although Simpson has threatened without winner some of the bigger tournaments this year, he has had a handful of big sub-par rounds, he just needs to put it all together!

Bernd Weisberger has had a good year on the European Tour and in a wide betting event he is the $17 favourite to win the Wales Open. Several players at the head of the market have been popular including Francesco Molinari, Ross Fisher (both $21), Miguel Angel Jiminez ($23) and Thomas Bjorn ($34). Thongchai Jaidee is the defending champion and is rated a $41 chance, while the shortest priced Australian is Brett Rumford at $34. 

NASCAR

Matt Kenseth ($9.00) returned to form in Bristol last week defeating Kasey Kahne and Juan Pablo Montoya, and Kenseth has now moved into outright second pick at $5.00 behind Jimmie Johnson ($2.40) to win the title. Johnson went into Bristol as the heavily backed $4.00 favourite again but never really featured. Atlanta host the Nascar’s this week and although Johnson is the $5.00 favourite there are a few fancied to beat him. Johnson won both races here in 2007 but Kahne ($7.00) has won 3 races on the circuit since 2006 while the Busch brothers have also built up good records here. Kyle is the shortest of the pair at $8.00 while Kurt is at $13 in the opening market. Denny Hamlin ($15) has found it hard to regain form after returning from a back injury earlier in the season, but did win here last year. 

SUPERBIKES

Superbike title favourite Tom Sykes has now gone 2 meetings without a win but he is the $2.75 favourite to win race 1 in Nurburgring, Germany this week.

Jonathon Rea and Loris Baz won the 2 races at Silverstone after Marco Melandri won the only race held in Moscow, but punters think that Sykes will bounce back this week. Eugene Laverty is the second pick at $3.50 ahead of Melandri ($6.50) and Sylvain Guintoli ($7.50) who dislocated a shoulder in England. Rea is an $9.00 chance in the opening market but he did win a race here in 2009 and 2010, so a win at Silverstone should hold him in good stead in Germany. Chaz Davies ($13) won a race here last but has been inconsistent this season. 

MOTOGP

The motoGP season continues this week at Silverstone after Marc Marquez won the Czech Republic GP last week. It was the 4th win on end for Marquez who went into the race slight favourite at $2.50 over Jorge Lorenzo at $2.85, and he was too good again for Dani Pedrosa with Lorenzo finishing in 3rd position. Marquez is now $1.30 to win the title, and on current form that looks a formality. The Spaniard has opened at $2.20 to win this week and nearly all of the early business has been for him to win, with a little interest shown in Lorenzo at $3.00. Lorenzo has won 2 of the past 3 races at Silverstone with the now retired Casey Stoner splitting those 2 victories, whereas Pedrosa ($3.75) has a poor record around the circuit. From his last 5 appearances at Silverstone, Pedrosa has only been able to finish 3rd twice, finishing down the track in the other 3 races. As mentioned, on current form, Marquez looks the winner. 

TATTSBET TWIST 

$3.00 Atlantic Jewel to win the Memsie Stakes (Caulfield)*. If Atlantic Jewel runs 2nd, you will get your money back!
*Account Betting only (Internet & app), Max. bet per Account Customer: $25, 5:00pm to 6:00pm AEST Friday 30 August or until the max. cap of $50,000 is reached.