Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - July 4

RUGBY LEAGUE

Some sort of normality returns once again to rugby league this week with the Origin players eligible to play, although 3 of the fixtures have been moved away from the ‘home’ grounds.

For the second week in a two there will be no games played in Sydney on Sunday, but that hasn’t detracted from the level of interest in those games. The Bulldogs have a home game in Mackay, and in the corresponding match last year Ben Barba scored 2 tries, a great performance give he grew up there. The Bulldogs have struggled at times this year but the early money has been for them at $1.50 to beat Newcastle. The Knights had a big win over the Titans last week in terrible conditions, but have had trouble putting 2 wins together all season.

The New Zealand Warriors have now won 5 games on the trot, and have come from $251 to win the title to be now $17. They face their toughest assignment in Perth on Sunday when they take on Souths, but the Warriors have met with plenty of support to win the game ($3.75-$3.60), with the bigger money going on them with 10 points start. While the game will be played in Perth, that may suit the Warriors as the crowd is tipped to be mostly expat Kiwis who live in the west.

The Titans have been rocked again by injuries, and the one that may affect them the most will be the loss of Jamal Idris. The improved form of Idris this year has been the main reason why the Titans were on track for a finals berth, but they play Penrith in Darwin on Saturday night with most of their backline out, and several of the forwards under an injury cloud. Penrith have already been $2.25 into 42.05, and look certain to start even shorter.


AFL

Gary Ablett is $2.25 to win the Brownlow Medal again, but all of the talk over the last two weeks has been Jobe Watson, and what may eventually happen to him. We know that as far as betting is concerned, those who backed Watson to win last year’s Brownlow hang on to their winnings as the event is paid out on ‘medal presentation’, so it is finalised on the night. However, nobody can be certain what is going to happen with Watson, or his Essendon teammates, in the coming weeks. The Bomber captain has had a terrific season again and is currently the $7.00 equal second favourite with Paddy Dangerfield, but not surprisingly Watson isn’t attracting much business.

One bet type that Watson can win irrespective of what happens is the Brownlow leader after round 10. The rules for this option include players who are deemed to be ineligible for whatever reason, and Gary Ablett is the warm $1.65 favourite to be leading then with Watson next at $6.50 and Dan Hannebery at $7.00. Trying to ascertain how umpires allocate Brownlow votes can be a nightmare, but our AFL analysts have been feverishly working away at it, and they have Ablett 3 votes clear after Round 10, so we will see how that pans out.

One of the most eagerly anticipated matches each season is always the Carlton v Collingwood clash, and Friday night’s meeting between the two sides looks a legitimate toss of the coin. The betting opened at take your pick, and hasn’t moved all week, and amazingly the bets have been split down the middle for each side.

A loss to Carlton might spell the end of season 2013, but another two sides under just as much pressure are the Crows and the Eagles, who meet in Adelaide on Saturday night. West Coast’s poor form at home this year continued when beaten by Essendon last week, but punters think they will rally this week as they have been a firmer in the betting, into $2.20 after opening at $2.25. The winner will keep their finals hopes alive to some degree whereas it must surely be ‘curtains’ for the loser?

Most are tipping a Hawthorn v Geelong Grand Final again this year, and they meet at the MCG on Saturday night for the second time this year. The Cats have won 10 in a row against Hawthorn, and of more recent times they are usually the outsider. They were in round 1 ($2.35) when they beat hawthorn 93-86 after being down by 20 points at the major break. The return bout this week will see Geelong again go in as outsiders and punters have discounted the Cats again as 75% of the early money has been for Hawthorn to break the hoodoo.


RUGBY UNION

It is amazing how the fortunes of the Wallabies have fluctuated over the last couple of weeks, and while they did beat the Lions with only minutes to spare last week, they could quite easily have already wrapped the series up if Kurtley Beale hadn’t have slipped over while kicking for goal in the first test.

The decision by James Horwill to go for a try last week instead of kicking for goal proved to be a match winner, and the good news for the Wallabies is that Horwill has been cleared to play this week after a drama filled few days of appeals against a stomping charge. The betting on the decider after the second test opened with Australia at $1.87 just ahead of the Lions at $1.93, but with Horwill in the side, and Lions captain Sam Warburton ruled out through injury, the Wallabies are now clear favourites at $1.73 with the Lions at $2.10. Australia did touch $4.00 to win the series after the first test when the Lions were $1.25, and on the current prices we are seeing good money coming for both sides, including one bet of $3000 for the Lions at $2.10 on Wednesday. Tattsbet will be betting live throughout the decider, and there have been some interesting price moves on the two matches played so far. The Lions were $1.40 prior to the Wallabies try last week, and were $2.70 after it, and got as short as $2.00 when they lined up to take the penalty kick to win the game.

The second last round of Super Rugby is also on this week with only the New Zealand and South African sides in action. The key match will be the Crusaders v Chiefs game, and although the Chiefs are the $2.90 fav’s to win the title, the Crusaders are $1.44 to win this week. A losing bonus point will be enough for the Chiefs to secure the NZ Conference, and they have won 3 of their last 4 against the Crusaders, but it will be the first time since 2009 that the pair have met in Christchurch.


TENNIS

We’re down to the semi-final stage at Wimbledon. It’s almost a two-horse race in the men’s with Novak Djokovic ($2.75 into $1.65) holding onto favouritism over Andy Murray ($4.50 into $2.75). Murray has actually drifted from $2.50 out to $2.75 following last night’s energy-sapping five set comeback win over Fernando Verdasco. Djokovic is at $1.14 to beat Del Potro ($5.50), while Murray is a $1.18 fave up against up and comer Janowicz ($4.75).

Meanwhile on the women’s side, not many punters could have predicted seed numbers 4, 15, 20 and 23 would be squaring off in the last four. Going into the semi-finals, Serena Williams conqueror Sabine Lisicki is a $2.20 (from $51) fave to win the title, ahead of Agnieszka Radwanska at $3.25 (from $41), Marion Bartoli at $4.75 (from $151) and Kirsten Flipkens at $7 (from $101). In tonight’s matches, Bartoli has been well supported at $1.65 up against Flipkens ($2.20), while the money is evenly split in the match between Lisicki ($1.65) and Radwanska ($2.20).


NETBALL

The Adelaide Thunderbirds powered their way into the ANZ Championship Grand Final with an emphatic 49-39 win over the Vixens last week and are now into $1.50 to win the title. It will be the second time that the Thunderbirds have hosted the title, the other time being 2010, and they were victorious on that occasion. The Vixens now have to overcome the Firebirds this week to make the final, and they are $4.50 with the Firebirds at $5.00. Betting is open on the preliminary final between these two, and the early money has been for the Firebirds who are into $2.05 after opening at $2.10, with the Vixens easing from $1.70 out to $1.77. The game total has been set at under or over 101.5 goals, and that is $1.90 apiece. An interesting stat leading into the prelim final is that the Vixens and Thunderbirds have met twice this season, and the ‘away’ side has both. The Firebirds won 57-46 in Melbourne back in round 9, while the Vixens won in in Queensland 53-47 in round 11. The stats say it could be a win for the travelling side, and so does the early betting.


GOLF

Martin Kaymer is a previous winner of the French Open back in 2009, and while the German’s form has slipped over the past 2 years, he has shown improvement at his last couple of starts. Kaymer is into outright favouritism at $14 to win the French Open after originally being listed as $15 along with Luke Donald, so punters are of the opinion he can get back into winning mode. Several others have been backed however including Matt Kuchar ($18), Mateo Manassero $26), Francesco Molinari ($34-$29, Marcel Siem at $34, and the evergreen Miguel Angel Jiminez at $41. Siem is French, and is also the defending champion, while Molinari finished second to Siem last year as well as in a tie for second behind Jiminez in 2010, so there is plenty of reasons why punters are keen on the above mentioned.

Phil Mickelson will also go in in as a well backed favourite in the Greenbrier Classic on the US PGA Tour this week. This will only be the 4th running of the Greenbrier at White Sulphur Springs, with the last 2 years decided in a playoff and Aussie Stuart Appleby being crowned the 2010 winner. Ted Potter defeated Troy Kelly on a playoff last year but hasn’t been given much chance by punters this year at $101, while 2011 winner Scott Stallings defeated Bob Estes and Bill Haas in a 3 way playoff. Stallings is solid in the betting this year at $41, but Haas ($21) has a lot of admirers after winning the AT&T National last week. There are 11 Aussies in the field with John Senden being the shortest at $67, and the Queenslander is $3.75 to top the group ahead of Appleby at $7.50.


FORMULA 1

Nico Rosberg has now won 2 of the last 3 F1 Grand Prix races, so on that form alone he must be included in the major chances in this week’s German GP. It is a quick backup after the British GP last week, and while most consider that Rosberg, a $10 chance, was fortunate to beat Mark Webber ($8.00), those who were on him still get paid! It was an intriguing race with tyre blow-outs costing several drivers, and Sebastian Vettel, who started as the $1.75 public elect, failed to finish.

Vettel has been installed as the $2.50 favourite this week, and he is yet to break his maiden status at Nurburgang although he has been placed on several occasions. Fernando Alonso is a 3 time winner here including last year, and has attracted most of the early support at $4.75, and he is just ahead of Lewis Hamilton at $5.00. Hamilton is another multiple winner in Germany with wins in 2008 and 2011, and he was the fastest qualifier last week. Webber has been backed again at $8.00 following on from his placing at Silverstone, and he is another previous winner here back in 2009. Rosberg is also quite popular at $7.50, but he is the least popular of those at the head of betting.


NASCAR

Matt Kenseth was the winner in Kentucky, and although he was well up in the betting at $10, he was pretty much ignored by punters. Jimmie Johnson ($3.75) and Kyle Busch ($5.00) were by far and away the best backed of the drivers, but Busch could only manage 5th while Johnson finished down the track.

Daytona gets plenty of use during the season, particularly early on, and the Nascar’s return there this week. Johnson won the Daytona 500 early in the year and is again the $10.00 favourite this week. Kenseth ($11.00) has a couple of Daytona 500 wins under his belt, and following on from his win in Kentucky, he should be hard to beat again, while Busch ($12.00) has won a couple of the spring events held at Daytona.


V8 SUPERCARS

The V8 Supercars have had a couple of weeks off since racing in Darwin, but return this week with two races over 200km apiece in Townsville.

Reid Park in Townsville is a street course, and both sets of hard and soft tyres must be used in each of the races. Strategy is all important, but race 1 favourite, Jamie Whincup ($2.65), has an outstanding record in Townsville having won 5 of the last 8 races. Whincup has shown in all of his wins there that it doesn’t really matter where you start on the grid, if you are good enough you can win. He has been the bets backed in the early betting, but there is a lot more interest in these races than we have seen of recent times. Craig Lowndes is second pick at $4.25 ahead of Mark Winterbottom ($6.00) and Will Davison at $8.50. Winterbottom won a race here in 2010, and while he hasn’t been a major force in 2013, he has shown steady improvement.


GREYHOUNDS

Albion Park will host the Winter Carnival Cup final on Thursday night, and the box draw has made it an intriguing final. Three Victorians have made their way into the final, and two of those head the betting. Hello Good Bye was easily the fastest heat winner from box1 and will exit from the inside alley again. The Kel Greenough trained sprinter has already made the final of the Australian and Perth Cup finals but has been luckless on each occasion. If he can lead, he will be mighty hard to run down, and is deservedly the $2.00 favourite. Xylia Allen, another of the Victorians, is the close second elect at $2.75, and if she can settle behind Hello Good By, she will prove hard to hold out as she has a powerful finishing burst. Forget all about her distant second in the heats, she had no luck at all. Glen Gallon ($4.50) is easily the best of the local hopes after winning at Albion Park for the 26th time in his heat, but he is going to need something to go wrong with the two favourites if he is to win from box 7.