Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - July 11

RUGBY LEAGUE

With less than a week to go before Origin 3, money continues to roll in for Queensland, now trading at $1.57 with NSW at $2.45. There are bets for the Blues but they have been outweighed by the bigger bets for the Maroons, with the line now set at 4 points. The Blues look to have plenty of injury concerns, and with a strong chance that both Paul Gallen and Greg Bird will join Jarryd Hayne on the sidelines, the Maroons are certain to start warm favourites.

We have mentioned before that the round before an Origin game is normally quiet, and that applies to the upcoming weekend as well. Four games will be spread out over four days, but there have been a couple of early movers. Parramatta were woeful when going down 50-10 against Manly on Monday night, and although they have a good record at Parramatta Stadium, Penrith have had the wood on them of recent times. The Panthers return from a trip to Darwin but again looked good thrashing the Titans. They opened at $1.38 to beat the Eels, but that was quickly snapped up, and punters are now taking $1.33 as well as the -8.5 point line.

The other side to firm in betting has been Manly, who travel to north Queensland on Monday night. While Manly have players involved in the rep game, they still have a terrific side on paper while of course the Cowboys will be without they key man Jonathon Thurston. The Eagles have been the best backed side of the round in the first few days of betting, into $1.42 from an opening $1.45, while the line of -6.5 has also been heavily supported into $1.80. A loss for the Cowboys will probably put them out of the finals race for this year.


AFL

Round 16 of AFL appears to be fairly predictable on paper, but how often have we seen that and then there is a huge upset? The trouble in the back end of the season is always trying to ascertain how the sides that cannot make the finals will play, as well as those that are cemented in there go forward, with many often ‘resting’ players. One of the games of the year is always the derby in the west, and it does look one of only a couple of games this round where there can be an upset. The West Coast opened at $2.40 to beat Fremantle, however all does not appear well with ruckman Nic Natanui, so punters have been keen to take the shorter odds for Fremantle. If Natanui is ruled out then that would see a drastic change to the prices with the Eagles sure to drift out, but as we have found in the past, the Eagles keep their cards close to their chest and perhaps we won’t know until Sunday if he is in the side or out.

Adelaide are probably all but out of the finals race, and Collingwood have been labelled as the ‘good things’ of the round by multi punters. After opening at $1.22, a barrage of multi activity has seen that price come into $1.20, and there is plenty of money to say the Pies will also cover the line of 27.5 points.

Brisbane host North Melbourne at the Gabba on Saturday night, and while the Roos are warm $1.45 favourites, there is money around to say that the Lions can beat them. Brisbane are $2.75 with the line set at $14.5, and although they did take an eternity to shake the Suns off last week, it is hard to forget that epic performance when they beta Geelong at the Gabba a few weeks back. The Roos were impressive in thrashing Richmond last week, but that was at Etihad where they clearly play their best football.


RUGBY UNION

Robbie Deans is gone, replaced by Ewen McKenzie, and that has seen an immediate reaction as far as the upcoming Rugby Championship is concerned. Although the first match is still over a month away, there have been several bets placed on the Wallabies this week at $5.75 after Deans was shown the door. New Zealand are the hot favourites at $1.37 ahead of South Africa at $5.25, then Australia, with Argentina the big outsiders at $101. Tattsbet has also opened betting on the first match, which doubles as a Bledisloe Cup game. Australia will be at home in Sydney but open as $2.40 outsiders with the All Blacks at $1.55.

The final round of Super Rugby kicks off on Friday night, and while there are a few dead rubbers, several of the exact final spots are still up for grabs. The Crusaders did a demolition job on the Chiefs last week, and all of a sudden are a chance to grab the NZ Conference title. They take on a disappointing Hurricanes side, with punters happy to take $1.10 or even the -15 point line, but the Canes have a good record against the Crusaders having won 4 of their last 6 meetings. For the Crusaders to win the conference they have to get a bonus point win (likely) and hope that the Chiefs cannot get a bonus point against the Blues (unlikely).

Israel Folau is out of the Waratahs side this week, but to more than offset that the Reds will go into Saturday night’s game against them missing James Horwill and Will Genia. The Waratahs are only play for pride after another disappointing season, but rest assured they will not be taking this game lightly as there are also Wallaby spots up for grabs. The Reds need a win to possibly get them to 4th position , and although they won 25-17 in round 2, the Reds are the $2.15 outsiders. Neither side has played for a month, so anything could happen!


GOLF

There is only a week to go before the start of the British Open, and a lot of the big names are already in Europe preparing. Tiger Woods is still the favourite at $8.50 but there is nowhere near the interest in him that we have seen in the past as he has had several weeks off with an elbow injury. Justin Rose and Adam Scott share the second line of betting at $17 ahead of Rory McIlroy at $19, while Jason Day has attracted most of the early money, into $21 after opening at $26. Others to meet with support are defending champion Ernie Els ($23), last week’s French Open winner Graeme McDowell at $26, and Dustin Johnson at the same price.

Phil Mickelson is $26 to win the British Open but has been the best backed at $19 to win this week’s Scottish Open at Inverness. Mickelson shares favouritism with Ernie Els who is a dual winner of the Scottish Open in 2000 and 2003, but it was played at Loch Lomond on those occasions. Thomas Bjorn and Paul Casey have been in good form recently and there is money for both at $26 while Nicolas Colsaerts is a firmer into $26 after opening at $34. Last year’s winner was Jeev Mikha Singh who will go in as an outsider at $126 while runner up Francesco Molinari is another who has had support at $31.

Whilst on the golf, a special mention must go to a Tattsbet client who found both tour winners last week. He coupled up Graeme McDowell at $29 in the French Open with Jonas Blixt ($101) in the Greenbrier Classic, outlaying $8 for a payout of $23,432. Outstanding effort!


ELECTIONS

There have been plenty of polls released in the last few months on the upcoming Federal election, and while the return of Kevin Rudd to the role of Prime Minister has had a positive affect for the Labor Party in polls this week, they still remain the outsiders to win the election. Prior to Julia Gillard being deposed, Labor were $7.50, and did touch $10 at one stage, but they were installed at $4.50 after Rudd was returned. There has been plenty of action this week with over $20,000 coming for the Coalition at various odds between $1.28 and $1.25, but subsequent to that Labor are now into $3.00 and touching $4.00 early on this week. Punters always react to any positive polls, so while the good news continues for Labor in any polls released, Labor will hold their place in the market around the current quote.


NETBALL

The Queensland Firebirds made their way into the ANZ Netball Championship final this week with a win over the Vixens in Melbourne. The Firebirds landed a solid betting plunge in winning last week, but will travel to Adelaide for the Grand Final as an easing underdog. The Thunderbirds opened at $1.60 but have already firmed into $1.55 with one of the major bets being $5000 at $1.60. That is a big bet by netball standards, and that price move has seen the Firebirds drift from $2.30 out to $2.40. These 2 sides met in Adelaide in the final round of the season and the Thunderbirds prevailed by 2 points. Another stat in their favour is that of the 5 ANZ Championships decided, 4 have been won by the home sides with the only ‘away’ side to win being the Magic who defeated the Vixens last year. It is sure to be a great final, and while all points towards a Thunderbirds win, the Firebirds have proven themselves on the road.


GREYHOUNDS

A quality field has been assembled for the McKenna Memorial at Sandown on Thursday night.

The 595m start can be treacherous, and with most of the early pace runners drawn out, it does look as though there could be a lot of early trouble. Proven Impala came back in distance to run fast time last week, but will have to step cleanly from box 5. She is the opening $3.50 favourite but is certain to be pressurised early by Cintiarna ($6.00) and Boris Fields ($7.00). Irma Bale ($5.50) will need a clear run early from box 8 if she is to figure in the finish while recent Perth Derby finalist Zelemar Fever ($7.00) races well at Sandown. The box draw has opened the race right up and any of the 8 runners could win without surprising.


NASCAR

It is extremely rare of Jimmie Johnson fans to get double figure odds in a Nascar race, but they did last week when Johnson won in Daytona as an $11 pop. In a wide open betting event, Johnson defeated Clint Bowyer and Carl Edwards with $9.00 equal favourites Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch both missing a place.

Johnson is the $5.00 opening favourite in New Hampshire this week, and while he is a winner here, most of the other drivers who have been in good recent form are also previous winners. Denny Hamlin ($7.00) had a win and a second at the course last year, and should be approaching his best after an enforced layoff with a back injury, while another one to keep an eye on is Tony Stewart ($13) who has a win and numerous placing’s on the New Hampshire speedway.


MOTOGP

Jorge Lorenzo did an amazing job to finish 5th in the Dutch GP 2 weeks ago after breaking his collarbone in the Friday session. Lorenzo started from 11 on the grid, and while he never threatened eventual winner Valentino Rossi, it was a very brave performance. It was the first win for Rossi since his comeback to Yamaha, and he will go into this week’s German GP as still the fourth pick, but significantly shorter at $5.00. Race favourite is Dani Pedrosa ($2.75) who has won the last 2 German GP’s which followed placing’s in 2009 and 2010. Rossi is a multiple winner here, including that race in 2009 while Lorenzo won in 2010. Most of the early money has been Pedrosa and Marc Marquez ($3.00), with punters preferring to sit back and see how Lorenzo ($3.75) performs in the early sessions. Lorenzo has been displaced as 2013 Championship favourite by Pedrosa who is now $2.00 with Lorenzo at $2.60. Pedrosa holds a slender 9 point lead over Lorenzo, but naturally a lot will hinge on what happens this week.