2013 Melbourne Cup

Image courtesy of theaustralian.com.au
Green Moon beat Fiorente to win the 2012 Melbourne Cup. Image courtesy of theaustralian.com.au

**TattsBet $275,000 First Four Jackpot Race**

1. Dunaden  (Best price available since betting opened; $41) – Won this contest in 2011 before returning to Australia to claim the Caulfield Cup twelve months later. The Mikel Delzangles trained galloper has won three from four down under and has strong European form this year. Might find one too good but never runs a bad race.

2. Green Moon  (Best price available since betting opened; $31) – Last year’s Cup winner carried 54.5kg to victory twelve months ago but must lump an additional 3kg in his quest to become just the sixth horse to win the race more than once. Has raced fairly since his 2012 success, but has failed to place in five subsequent runs. Likely to struggle with the big weight.

3. Red Cadeaux  (Best price available since betting opened; $51) – Second by the narrowest of margins behind Dunaden two years ago before running on strongly to finish eighth after getting too far back in 2012. Since last year’s Cup the globetrotter has won the Hong Kong Vase, finished second in the Dubai World Cup and third in Japan’s Tenno Sho at the top level. Can run well at big odds.

4. Sea Moon  (Best price available since betting opened; $35) – Is arguably the best import to race in Australia but has failed to reproduce his best form despite taking out the Group Two Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield last month. Would be hard to beat if he could rediscover his best form but not easy to fancy on what he has done in Australia so far.

5. Brown Panther  (Best price available since betting opened; $41) – Owned and bred by former England soccer star Michael Owen, Brown Panther won his first two starts in England this year but disappointed when fifth over 2000m at the end of September. Finished ahead of Sea Moon and Seville in the 2011 St Leger at Doncaster when second to Masked Marvel, but hard to like here.

6. Fiorente  (Best price available since betting opened; $11) – Runner-up in this race twelve months ago at his first Australian start and hasn’t run a bad race since. His game second in the Cox Plate was an ideal ‘prep’ run for this event, he runs the trip and has two-time Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver aboard. One of the leading chances.

7. Foreteller  (Best price available since betting opened; $126) – Has performed consistently well for Chris Waller in weight-for-age races this year, culminating with a fourth placing behind Shamus Award in the Cox Plate. Won the Group One Makybe Diva Stakes over a 1600m at Flemington in September but has raced over further than 2000m just once and must be a doubt to stay two miles.

8. Dandino  (Best price available since betting opened; $21) – Ran the race of his life to finish second behind Fawkner in the Caulfield Cup with master tactician Craig Williams aboard but has leading English hoop Ryan Moore aboard this time around. His best form to date has come over 2400m but he will be competitive if he can carry that form over an additional 800m.

9. Ethiopia  (Best price available since betting opened; $121) – Won the Australian Derby at just his fourth career start last year but has failed to run into a place since. Finished last, beaten 63 lengths in the Cup last year and should improve on that effort after running a decent race to finish fourth over 2500m here on Saturday.

10. Fawkner  (Best price available since betting opened; $201) – Will be bidding to become the 12th horse to do the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double after taking out the 2400m event at Caulfield at his first attempt beyond 2000m. Has a tremendous record of five wins and three placings from nine starts at Flemington but is a real doubt to stay 3200m.

11. Mourayan  (Best price available since betting opened; $101) – Finished seventh in the Cup last year before claiming the Sydney Cup over two miles in April, proving his liking for a genuine staying trip. Was pretty ordinary in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday and unlikely to be in the finish but will still be running on strongly when others are running out of gas.

12. Seville  (Best price available since betting opened; $101) – Was fancied for this twelve months ago but didn’t make it to the race. Won the Group One Metropolitan Handicap over 2400m two starts back before an impressive Cup trial in the Cox Plate when he was forced to make a long, sustained run. One of several runners for last year’s winning connections.

13. Super Cool  (Best price available since betting opened; $51) – Ran an honest race to finish fifth in the Cox Plate and was second in the Victoria Derby here last year before returning in March to win the Australian Cup. The last two horses to win that race as a three year old went on to run well in the Melbourne Cup, with Saintly winning in 1996. Doubt he is that good.

14. Masked Marvel  (Best price available since betting opened; $71) – Was pinpointed by the Lloyd Williams stable as their leading Cup hope earlier in the spring but disappointed when beating only one runner home in the Cox Plate. His form was alright prior to that failure and could be considered if you forgive that run, but he hasn’t won since claiming the St Leger at Doncaster in 2011.

15. Mount Athos  (Best price available since betting opened; $15) – Charged home for fifth in this race twelve months ago after being ridden too far back in what was a slowly run race. His 2013 form doesn’t look as strong as it was last year but this has been the target all along and Craig Williams gets off Caulfield Cup runner-up Dandino to take the mount. Popular European trainer Luca Cumani finished second with both Bauer (2008) and Purple Moon (2007) and this is his best winning chance.

16. Royal Empire  (Best price available since betting opened; $26) – The sole representative for powerful global operation Godolphin, Royal Empire has an impressive record of five wins and six minor placings from 13 career starts. Defeated Red Cadeaux at Newbury in August and the form from that race has worked out well. Will run well.

17. Voleuse De Coeurs  (Best price available since betting opened; $81) – Former Dermot Weld trained mare that had her final start for the canny Irishman when taking out the Irish St Leger by six lengths in September. That was easily the best performance of her career and it would take a huge performance to reproduce that form at her first Australian start.

18. Hawkspur  (Best price available since betting opened; $35) – Took ten starts to win his first race but has emerged as one of the best middle distance horses in Australia since breaking his maiden. Won the Queensland Derby over 2400m in June and started as favourite in the Caulfield Cup where he flew home from the tail of the field. Will be in the mix, but no horse has ever won from barrier 18.

19. Simenon  (Best price available since betting opened; $35) – Won over 4400m at Royal Ascot last year and was second in the Ascot Gold Cup over 4000m earlier this year but proved he isn’t just a one paced donkey by finished close up in the Herbert Power over 2400m behind Sea Moon. Will benefit from having had a run in Australia and should collect a $125,000 cheque for finishing in the top ten.

20. Ibicenco  (Best price available since betting opened; $151) – Won the Geelong Cup at his most recent start, a race that both Americain and Dunaden used as a springboard to Cup success recently. Probably doesn’t have the turn of foot to win the race but is a genuine stayer and should finish in the first half of the field.

21. Verema  (Best price available since betting opened; $31) – Smart French trained mare owned by the Aga Khan who showed a good turn of foot to win the Kergorlay at Deauville in August, a race that Americain and Dunaden came through en-route to Cup success. Trainer Alain de Royer Dupre knows what it takes to win this race having masterminded Americain’s victory three years ago. One of the leading chances.

22. Dear Demi  (Best price available since betting opened; $71) – Ultra-tough mare owned by eccentric businessman John Singleton. Got all the breaks when flying along the fence to finish third in the Caulfield Cup before another good effort when second in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. Always finishes her races off strongly but this is her biggest test to date.

23. Tres Blue  (Best price available since betting opened; $61) – Won his last two starts in France before being transferred to the Gai Waterhouse stable, with the form of his last win working out particularly well. Gets in well at the weights being a three year-old by Australian time and could run well if he has acclimatised to Australian conditions. If.

24. Ruscello  (Best price available since betting opened; $201) – Unheralded UK stayer who burst onto the scene – and into the Melbourne Cup field - with a determined victory in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday. Lexus winners have a good record in the Cup recently but this is a big step up in class.

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