Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - June 26

RUGBY LEAGUE

It seems like most people having a bet on State of Origin 2 have forgotten who won the first game!

Queensland have been a massive ‘go’ to win game 2, firming from an opening $1.67 into $1.45 hours out from the kick-off. The Blues have drifted from $2.20 out to $2.75, and while we are finding bets coming through for New South Wales, they are far outweighed by the size of the bets for Queensland, including several $10,000 bets. The margin options for Queensland have all been heavily supported as well with money coming for the Marrons to win 1-12 ($2.65-2.45), but nearly has much has gone on a win by 13+, which has been $4.00 into $3.45. With the Blues holding a 1-0 lead in the series, it is hard to believe they are at $2.85 even if it is played at Suncorp.

The signs are there that game 2 betting will eclipse the first match, and some of the more popular bet types have seen a similar increase in popularity. Darius Boyd and Greg Inglis have been $10 into $8.00 for the first try scorer, and while most of the Maroons have been backed as well, the standout for NSW has been debutante Nathan Merritt at $13. The South Sydney try scoring machine has attracted similar support to the two favourites, and a lot of that has come after he was tipped by Blocker the Psychic Roach. The Psychic Cockroach tipped correctly tipped Jarryd Hayne at $16 to be the first try scorer in game 1, so we will see what happens this time.

Johnathan Thurston was friendless in ‘Player of the Match’ betting on game 1, and that was no surprise with all the talk that he was carrying a groin injury. JT played like he was injured, and the truth was revealed after, but he is back in favour for tonight’s game. The price for Thurston hasn’t wavered from the opening quote of $6.00, but he has attracted more bets and money than the next 5 in the betting as a combined total! Corey Parker was the first player backed once it was confirmed he was in the ‘run on’ side, and is solid in the market at $8.00 (in from $9.00), while the best backed Blues player has been Josh Dugan at $15.

This week’s round of NRL games are open, but will close once Origin starts tonight, and will re-open by noon on Thursday.


AFL

Jobe Watson has put Essendon firmly back in the spotlight this week, and now we all sit back and see what happens next. The Bombers travel west to play the Eagles on Thursday night, but the focus is now on what happens with Watson’s Brownlow Medal from last year, and what is likely to happen with Essendon for the rest of this season. As far as last year’s Brownlow is concerned, it is all good news for those who backed Watson (and there were plenty) as those type of awards are paid out on ‘Medal Presentation’, a sports betting way of racings ‘correct weight’. That way, any retrospective inquiries that take place do not affect the payout on the day, as we know there have been medals overturned in some sports several years down the track. It won’t come as a surprise to many that although Essendon are only a $12 chance to win this year’s flag, there is little or no interest in them as there now must be some danger that they could lose their points. There has been a few movements on the flag this week following on from the losses suffered by Sydney and Geelong last week. Hawthorn are into $3.25, Fremantle into $7.00 (from $8.00), while both Sydney ($4.25-$5.00) and Geelong ($4.00-$4.25) have eased out. The other team on the move has been Richmond, now $15, but there hasn’t been any big money for them either.

Punters are in a bit of a quandary with the Thursday night match in Perth. Originally there was money for Essendon at $2.05 when the Eagles lost Hurn and Selwood, but we are beginning to see money for the Eagles on the back of further dramas with the Bombers. There has been good early money for more upsets this week, and after the results of the last few weeks, who can argue with that? Fremantle have already been $2.90 into $2.70 to win under lights in Geelong on Saturday night, and that shouldn’t hold too many fears for the Dockers as they have played well at Geelong before, and are in fabulous form. Port Adelaide were too good for Sydney last week, and there are plenty who think they can do the same thing to Collingwood this week. After opening at $3.60, Port were into $3.35 by Wednesday, and look destined to start shorter. Richmond’s good form, and not money, has been the main reason why the Tigers are now only $15 to win the flag, but punters are backing them with confidence when they play each week. The first big bet for the week was for Richmond to beat St Kilda, $8000 at $1.25, and they have been included in practically all of the AFL multi’s for the weekend.


GOLF

The Irish Open has drawn together a great field which includes four Irishmen who have won Majors, and three of those are at the head of the betting market. Rory McIlroy ($8.00), Graeme McDowell ($13) and Padraig Harrington ($17) are the three in question, with the only ‘outsider’ in the mix being Thomas Bjorn at $15. Bjorn was runner-up in the BMW to Ernie Els last week, and did win the Irish Open when it was last held on the Kildare Course (this week’s venue) back in 2006. McIlroy has had a poor year by his standards but he has been backed to get back into the winners list as has Harrington. Another Irishman, Scot Lowry ($23) must also be rated highly as he did win the Open in 2009 when still an amateur. Outside of the strong Irish contingent, others to attract attention have been Joost Luiten ($31), Richard Sterne ($41) and Aussie Brett Rumford ($41) who is also a previous winner in 2004.

Tiger Woods has an elbow injury that will rule him out until the British Open, and subsequent to that news coming out, Tiger has eased from $6.50 to $8.00 to win the British Open, but there hasn’t been any major betting moves as yet.

The AT&T National, the event hosted by Tiger Woods, will be missing the host this week who won last year, and the betting suggests it could be an Australian win this time around. Adam Scott finished 3 shots behind Tiger when placed third last year, and there is plenty to say the Scott ($11) can win this week. Jason Day ($15) is hot on the heels of Scott as far as bet numbers go, while there has been some support for the next two in betting, Hunter Mahan ($17) and Brandt Snedeker at $19. Others to be backed early in the week include Bo Van Pelt (second last year) at $31, Charley Hoffman ($41) and Nick Watney ($67-$51) who won this event in 2011 but it wasn’t played at Congressional where this week’s event will be held.


RUGBY UNION

In the eyes of most, the British and Irish Lions were extremely fortunate to get away with a 2 point win over the Wallabies last week, but a mounting injury toll to the home side has seen a good push for the Lions to go to a 2-0 lead in the series in Melbourne this week. The betting on the second test opened as soon as the first was over, and the Lions were $1.58 with the Wallabies at $2.35, but the Lions are into $1.55, and punters are also happy to take the line of -4.0. The Wallabies have been force to make several key positional changes, and that may have a dramatic effect on team balance, and of course there is the ongoing problem of goal kicking. It was always going to be the difference between the two sides, and that was really evident last week. The Lions will also have to make a couple of changes, but showed by the 35-0 win over the Rebels on Tuesday night that their key position players will be able to cope with anything the Wallabies throw at them.

Super Rugby returns from a break this week, with New Zealand and South African sides playing each other. While there are only three weeks of the season proper to go, there are still 10 teams who can mathematically make the finals, and all of the matches this week have a bearing on ladder position.


FORMULA 1

Mark Webber has an imposing record in the British Grand Prix, and there is plenty to say that he can improve on that record this week. Webber is on the fourth line of betting at $9.00, and while his recent form has been below par, he has wins at Silverstone in 2012 and 2010, as well as placing’s in both 2011 and 2009. Red Bull team-mate Sebastian Vettel is the $2.40 favourite, and with Vettel recently signing on until the end of 2015, it should be all systems go. He is coming off an easy win in Montreal, and looks back to his best. Fernando Alonso (winner 2006) is second elect at $3.50, and the only other driver to attract any real support early in the betting is Lewis Hamilton ($9.00), who like Alonso is a previous winner of the British GP.


MOTO GP

The Dutch motoGP will be run in Assen on Saturday, and with the race in the Netherlands always run on Saturday's, qualifying etc all moves forward one day, with the sessions due to begin on Thursday.

Jorge Lorenzo is the form rider of the competition having won the last 2 races held in Italy and Catalunya, and is the short $2.25 favourite to make it 3 in a row this week. Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa ($3.25) and Marc Marquez ($3.50) have dominated this year, while veteran Valentino Rossi ($7.00) is struggling to match it with the others. Pedrosa leads the title race on 123 points but is the $2.25 second pick behind Lorenzo ($1.90) who sits on 116 points, while Marquez ($6.50) is a further 23 points adrift. There has been a mixture of winners at Assen in the past with Casey Stoner prominent in all races, winning in 2012 and 2008, but Lorenzo did win in 2010, and of course Rossi notched several wins here when in his prime.


SUPERBIKES

With the motoGP on Saturday, motor bike enthusiasts have a big weekend in store for themselves with the Superbikes following up on Sunday.

Imola, Italy, will be where the 2 Superbike races will be run on Sunday, and this is a course all riders would be familiar with as it is also a test course.Tom Sykes won both races held at Donington last meeting, and although he trails Championship leader Sylvain Guintoli by 34 points, Sykes has now moved into $2.35 to win the title ahead of Guintoli at $2.90, with Eugene Laverty at $3.75. Laverty, Guintoli and Marco Melandri have won races this season, and that quartet dominate the market on Race 1 at Imola. Sykes is the favourite at $2.75 ahead of Laverty ($3.75), Guintoli ($4.50) and Melandri at $5.50. Sykes was runner-up to Carlos Checa in both races last year, and while Checa hasn't been able to recapture anything like his old form this season, he has an imposing record on the course having won 5 of the 6 races conducted over the last 3 years, with Jonathon Rea the other winner. Checa is at a healthy $51 in the first race this week.


NASCAR

Marcos Ambrose started a well-supported $4.00 favourite last weekend at Sonoma, but had to be content with 7th position. The road course was expected to suit Ambrose, but the race went to Martin Truex Jnr who started well down in the betting at $29. Truex Jnr defeated Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards who were both also well down in the betting markets, while heavily backed second favourite Kurt Busch ($10.00-$6.50) finishing close up in fourth placing.

Kentucky is a course that has been only used once a year over the past 2 seasons, and due to legal issues, the Sprint Cup races hadn't been held in Kentucky since 2005. As is usually the case, Jimmie Johnson is the $6.00 favourite, and while he hasn't been placed here the last 2 years, Johnson did qualify on pole last year. That race was won by Brad Keselowski who is well in the market at $7.50, along with Kasey Khane at the same quote after finishing second to Kesolowski in that race. The 2011 event was won by Kyle Busch who has opened at $7.00 this week. Busch was also the fastest in qualifying in 2011, and has been thereabouts in most races this season.


HARNESS RACING

The 2013 Albion Park Winter Carnival kicks off on Saturday night, and Tattsbet will have early fixed odds available on Thursday for the Group 1 races, and the rest of the card will be available on the day.

The Gr.1 $75,000 Queensland Oaks is light on numbers but HIGH on quality. Star Kiwi filly Our Splendour, brilliant winning last week’s Gold Coast Oaks, is the filly to beat again after drawing on the inside on tough local Montana Marie. Both fillies were terrific last week and look the testing material, but the wildcard runner is dual Oaks winner and Victorian trained filly Itz Nosurprisesthere, who is resuming since failing in a heat of the Victoria Oaks back in April. Already successful in both NSW & Tasmanian Oaks this season, this filly trialled stylishly on Monday night at Geelong. Trained by the astute Dean Braun, she is certain to have plenty of admirers who think she can cause an upset.

The Gr.3 4yo Championship looms as a difficult race on paper. Local pacers Emperor Montana, Terror Time, Ace Light plus the trio of the in-form Grant Dixon trained runners in Only The Brave, Alberto Contador and former New Zealand pacer Best Deal Yet take on the sole interstate representative Magical Telf. Tactics will be crucial during this 2138m contest.


GREYHOUNDS

Five heats of the Winter Carnival Cup will be conducted at Albion Park on Thursday night, and Tattsbet will also be offering fixed odds on those races. A very strong contingent of Victorian sprinters have ventured north for the heats, and the club is assured of a fantastic final.

Queensland champ Glen Gallon will be the $2.30 favourite to win the first heat, but recent Traralgon Cup finalist Gold Town ($2.75) looks hard to beat from box 1 while another Victorian Allen Makoto ($4.00) could take some running down.

General Destini finished second in the Traralgon Cup last week, and looks very hard to hold out from the pink in heat 2. Box 8 on debut at Albion Park is a tough assignment, but his form justifies him being $1.80.

All eyes will be on Xylia Allen in race 6. The Graeme Bate trained sprinter is building an imposing record of recent times, but normally needs luck in running. At her last start Xylia Allen surprisingly showed pace to lead all the way to win the Peter Mossman Classic at Wentworth Park in a blistering 29.47, and really should justify her quote of $1.60 and win her way through to next week’s final.