Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - June 13

GOLF 

The weather has been terrible in Ardmore, Pennsylvania all week for the US Open, and it seems as though worse is to come. The outlook for day 1 is very bleak with more rain, hail, and high winds, so it will be interesting to see who can cope with those conditions.

Tiger Woods is the easing $6.50 favourite prior to the first round, and there hasn’t been the support for him that we saw in the US Masters. Tiger was $4.50 in the opening market, so as you can see he has been a marked drifter. A number of players have been backed with the next three in the betting, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson all now at $19 after being at longer prices. Mickelson has been backed to take out the most, and he has been runner-up in the Open on 5 occasions. One big stat in his favour is that when he won 3 of his 4 Majors he finished top 10 the week before, and Mickelson did tie for 2nd last week. Several other players at much longer odds have been backed with the view that they will handle the conditions, including Jim Furyk ($61-$41), Steve Stricker ($61-$41),Webb Simpson ($61-$51), Ricky Fowler ($67), Bubba Watson ($67) and Ryan Moore, also a $67 chance.

Nine Australians will tee off in the Open and while Adam Scott is the $2.25 favourite to be Top Aussie, best backed have been Jason Day at $3.50 and Marc Leishman at $10, both of whom also played well in Scott’s memorable win in the Masters. 

RUGBY LEAGUE 

The NSW Origin team have been hit by an injury to Jarryd Hayne and suspension to James Tamou, and that has seen a price change for Origin 2. The Blues opened at $2.20 with QLD at $1.67, but the Maroons are now into $2.40 to level the series with the Blues out to $2.40.There is a lot more interest at this stage than we would have thought, and even though the Blues will be forced to make some changes, there has been more money for them to wrap the series up in Brisbane.

Things return to some normality this week with a full fixture, and it will be the first time this season that all ‘home’ sides are favourites. There is however one twist to that with Souths giving up their home game to play the Titans in Cairns on Sunday, but they are still listed as a home team. The Titans have been [playing well and will field a near full strength side this week, and it is hard to believe that they are on track to be the best finish of the Queensland sides. After opening at $5.00, the Titans are hot $1.50 chances now, and are $1.70 to make the finals.

Manly went down narrowly to the Warriors in New Zealand last Sunday, and now have to play the Bulldogs on Friday night. Teams coming off the Sunday to Friday break are always a risk, and Manly also had to travel back from NZ, so it isn’t surprising that there has been a constant stream of bets for Canterbury forcing a price cut from $2.20 into $2.15 while Manly are out to $1.71.

The Brisbane Broncos have hardly set the world on fire this season, but they have been the biggest early mover on this week’s round. The Broncos opened at $1.35 to win at home against the Tigers on Monday night, but a constant barrage of bets has seen that price crash into $1.25 with the Tigers moving from $3.15 out to $4.05. The Tigers scored a brave come from behind win over Penrith last week, and do seem attractive odds on Monday.

AFL

Gary Ablett is now into $2.25 to win another Brownlow Medal this year, and if the Suns can win a few more games, and Ablett holds his dominant form, he looks on track to win. Ablett proved last year that playing in a side that consistently lost by big margins didn’t have too much of a detrimental effect on him gaining votes, and while he has continued to get possession this season, the Suns have won more games, with more certain to come. The Tattsbet AFL assessors have him 3 votes in front at this stage, and the only reason that he isn’t $1.50 or shorter is that he has suffered injuries in the past, and of course it is so much easier to be reported in the game now.

While the Suns remain an outside hope to make the finals this year ($8.00), Sydney have been the major mover in flag betting after handing out a belting to Adelaide last week. The Swans will also now be able to play new recruit Kurt Tippett after their bye, and as a result are now $4.25 behind Hawthorn ($3.50) and Geelong ($4.00). Fremantle are in form and have a really soft draw in the second half, and although still a $9.00 to take the premiership cup west, they look on target for a top 4 finish.

Carlton joined the long list of sides that gave up 30+ point lead to lose last week against Essendon, and while the Blues should have won that game, punters have all but put the pen through their chances against Hawthorn at Etihad on Friday night. There are only 6 games on this week, and each of those matches has a short priced favourite, and nearly every AFL multi for the weekend starts with Hawthorn. Their price has firmed a little from $1.30 into $1.28, and punters are also keen on the Hawks line of -24.5.

The GWS Giants played well in the first half against Geelong last week before being steamrolled in the second half. Although they are a $5.00 chance to beat Port Adelaide at Skoda on Sunday, there has been plenty of small bets coming for an upset, and nearly every bet on the line in the first 24 hours of betting was for the Giants with 31.5 points start. 

DARTS

The PDC road show comes to Sydney this year with a new high profile event, the Sydney Masters.

The event will be late in August, and will be at Luna Park. Fox Sports will be televising the Masters, so that will ensure there is plenty of betting action. All of the world’s top players will be coming headed up by Michael Van Gerwen ($2.50), Phil Taylor ($3.40) and main Aussie hope Simon ‘The Wizrd’ Whitlock at $10.00. Paul Nicholson ($34) will be another main contender flying the Australian flag, closer to the event there other markets will be available as well 

V8 SUPERCARS 

The V8’s have returned from a successful series in the America, and head to the Top End for the Darwin Triple Crown this week.

Jamie Whincup dominated in Texas winning 3 of the 4 races held, with the other going to Fabian Coulthard. After an indifferent start to the season, Whincup has struck form, and is $1.65 to win the Driver’s title as well as being the $2.70 favourite to win race 1 this week. The races at Hidden Valley in Darwin always attract plenty of support and several drivers have been backed to oust Whincup in race 1 including Coulthard ($5.00), Mark Winterbottom ($9.00), Will Davison ($10.00) and Shane Van Gisbergen at $23. Surprisingly there hasn’t been a lot of early interest in second favourite Craig Lowndes at $4.00, particularly in light of the fact that he won a race here last year, the other going to Whincup. The format changes this year with one race on Saturday (split in half with an interval) over 120kms, and 2 races on Sunday, both non-stop over 100kms. 

MOTO GP 

Jorge Lorenzo has started in the Catalunya motoGP four times for 2 wins and 2 seconds, and following on from a win in Italy 2 weeks ago, the Spaniard is the opening $2.40 to maintain that form this week. The Catalunyan track is in Barcelona, and with Spanish riders dominating the market, the locals should provide the winner. Dani Pedrosa is on the second line of betting at $3.00, and while he did win this race back in 2008, he was runner-up to Lorenzo in both of his wins in 2010 and 2012. Marc Marquez has made a big impact since moving to the bigger bikes and is $3.50 with a decent gap to Valentino Rossi at $8.00. Cal Crutchlow ($23) has finished on the podium at the last 2 events and there has been some early money for him to do the same again at $3.00. 

NASCAR

Jimmie Johnson returned to the winners circle at Pocono last week when he defeated Greg Bifle and Dale Earnhardt Jnr. On that occasion Johnson started the $4.00 favourite after qualifying, and he again heads the betting this week in Michigan at $5.50. Johnson’s best finish in Michigan over the last 7 years has been a second in 2011, and several others have good form-lines at the circuit. Denny Hamlin ($7.00) has a couple of wins as does Earnhardt Jnr ($13), and Bifle ($15) also won the second race of the season in Michigan late last year. Keep an eye out for the Tattsbet ‘Hours of Power’ specials on Friday between noon and 2pm (EST) as the inflated odds on Cam Partington’s (Tatts Brekky motor racing guru) will be on the Nascar’s this week. 

GREYHOUNDS

Tattsbet will be offering a fixed odds service on a couple of the big greyhound races this week, namely the Flying Ami Classic and the Gold Cup from Albion Park on Thursday, and also the Peter Mosman Classic at Wentworth Park on Saturday night.

Runs House is the $2.75 favourite to win the Flying Ami, but all eyes will be on the Gold Cup. Irma Bale recently won her second Sandown Cup, and while she was run down as an odds on favourite in her heat, the track appeared to be on the ‘heavy’ side, and Irma Bale looked to be of those affected down near the rails. Master trainer Graeme Bate has a knack of getting his dogs ‘up’ for finals, and she deserves to be the favourite at $3.75. Tasmanian champ Bell Haven staged a terrific performance to win his heat after going down by a nose in the Sandown Cup won by Irma Bale, and has been installed at $4.00, while local hopes Mrs Thursday ($4.00) and Starliner ($5.50) both won their heats in fine style and are capable of winning.

The Peter Mosman Classic will see Graeme Bate provide that favourite as well with Xylia Allen ($2.50). Xylia Allen is one of the most ferocious chasers of modern times, and put up a fantastic performance to win her semi final. She is drawn down in box 2 and an unimpeded run should see her salute, but she can find trouble. Bate also has another 2 finalists with Schroder Bale ($9.00) and Quiz Bale ($9.00). Johnny Fire is the best of the local hopes at $4.50 and is drawn to nearly lead in box 1, but if there is to be an upset it might well be another NSW runner in Triggsy ($11) who was impressive in his heat win.