Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - May 2

AFL

Favourites have been to the fore in AFL so far this season, and it is hard to see a lot of them being beaten this week. The price for all 9 to win using Wednesday’s odds as a guide was $4.50, extremely short given there are 9 games, and punters have been keen to couple up all of the good things in multi’s.

The most significant early mover has been the Kangaroos, who will play Port Adelaide in Tasmania. It seems most think that Port will have trouble maintaining their unbeaten run after an epic come from behind win over the Eagles last week. The Roos opened at $1.50 on Monday and by Wednesday were already into $1.40, with Port out to $2.95.

The Gold Coast Suns nearly rolled Fremantle last season without Gary Ablett, and with the injury depleted Dockers now missing Nathan Fyfe and Kepler Bradley, surely the Suns must be a chance of an upset this week? There is an air of confidence around from Suns supporters as they have been cut from $3.30 into $3.05. The other chance of an upset could be when Richmond play Geelong, and there has been a little bit of early interest in the Tigers at $3.00, and more so with 17.5 points start. They were desperately unlucky against Fremantle last week, but against that is the fact that Geelong remain one of the unbeaten sides in the competition. The other 2 are Port Adelaide and Essendon, and while there have been bets coming through for Port to win the flag at $26, Essendon remain completely friendless at $7.50, and the reasons are pretty obvious. Their winning run looks likely to continue, but until there is some clarity about the off field problems, we don’t expect any interest at all in them in our ‘futures’ books.

Essendon’s Jobe Watson is the $4.00 favourite to win back to back Brownlow Medals, but the big mover this week has been Port’s Hamish Hartlett, now $15 after opening at $251 before Round 1. 

RUGBY LEAGUE 

Souths have never started favourite in a match against the Brisbane Broncos, that was until this week, but their task was made easier on Thursday when Josh McGuire and Justin Hodges were ruled out of the Brisbane side. Up until that point in time it had been a terrific betting duel with Souths at $1.60 and the Broncos at $2.35, but the ‘outs’ saw the price for Souths crash to $1.46, with Brisbane out to $2.75.

There has been a sprinkling of money for Canberra with 16 points start against Melbourne Storm on Saturday, and another outsider to meet with some early support has been the Dragons in Monday night’s clash with Manly. The Sea Eagles have lost a couple of players to suspension, and have never beaten St George Illawarra at WIN Stadium, so perhaps there is some value in the $2.65 or the 6.0 start that was on offer?

The New Zealand are showing some signs of returning to something like their old form, and they are the other side to attract early betting. The Warriors opened at $1.50 against the Gold Coast Titans, but the bigger money was for them at the line of -5.5 points. The Titans were thrashed last week when they picked up a heap of injuries, and have been forced to make several changes to that side this week.

The Channel 9 Intrust Super Cup game this week will see Norths Devils and last year’s premiers Wynnum Manly. The Devils are the outsiders at $2.55 with Wynnum Manly $1.50, and the line has been set at 5.5. 

SUPER RUGBY 

There are only a few rounds of Super Rugby to go, and the Brumbies and Reds look realistic hopes of winning the title. While the Chiefs remain the favourites at $4.00, the Brumbies and Reds are $4.75 and $5.50 respectively, split by the Crusaders at $5.00. The Crusaders got out of jail with a win over the Rebels last week, and have a tough assignment this week with a trip to Canberra on Sunday. The Kiwis haven’t beaten the Brumbies in Canberra since 2003 (4 games), but have won 3 of their last 4 against the Brumbies, with all wins being in New Zealand. Dan Carter has been named in the run on side this week for the Crusaders, but the early money is with the home side at $1.60.

The Reds travel to Perth to play the Force, and the enigmatic Force side must be given some hope of a win. The Reds scraped home against the unlucky Blues last week, and it is worth noting that the Force have won their last 2 games against the Reds, and were the outsiders in both. The last win was this season, back in round 5, when the Force won 19-12 in Brisbane, and as the 14.5 point underdog. That is enough to suggest that they have a strong chance this week, and TattsBet is keen to take the Reds on at $1.32, or particularly the line of -7.5 points. 

GOLF

Rory McIlroy won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2010 and the Irishman is the well backed $9.00 favourite to win it again this week.

McIlroy’s inconsistent form has been a worry this year, but in each tournament that he contests he is invariably one of the worst results for TattsBet, he is just so popular. Lee Westwood is the second pick at $17 ahead of Phil Mickelson and Webb Simpson at $19. Ricky Fowler ($23) won last year but he has been ignored this time by punters, however 2011 winner Lucas Glover has met with good support at $41. There are 9 Australians in the field with the shortest of those at $81, and the Queenslander is $3.50 to win the ‘Top Aussie’ category ahead of Matt Jones and Geoff Ogilvy at $4.00 

CRICKET

England host New Zealand in a 2 test series before the Ashes, and although the Kiwi’s got the better of them in the recent series played in New Zealand, England are hot $1.36 to win the best of 2 series. A ‘drawn’ series is at $4.00 and New Zealand are $10 pops, while in the ‘correct score’ series option, England are $2.25 to win 2-0.

The Australian Ashes squad was announced last week, and that signalled the opening of betting on the first Test at Trent Bridge. England are the favourites at $1.87 ahead of the draw at $3.60 with Australia the outsiders at $3.75, and over the coming weeks the exotics for the series as well as the first Test will open.

The Australian squad for the Champions Trophy was announced this week, and there weren’t really too many surprises in there. The Champions Trophy will be played before the Ashes begins, and England and South Africa are the $5.00 favourites ahead of Australia at $5.50. 

V8 SUPERCARS 

Craig Lowndes has won 10 races at Barbagallo in Perth, and punters have been keen to take the $5.00 that he will win race 1 there on Saturday. Jamie Whincup is the $3.75 favourite ahead of Lowndes, and they are followed by Fabian Coulthard ($5.50), Mark Winterbottom ($7.50) and Jason Bright at the same quote. Winterbottom won the opening race here last year before Will Davison won the final 2 races, and not surprisingly there has been money for Davison at $9.00. Races 2 and 3 will be held on Sunday with all 3 races run over 120km’s. 

NASCAR

Kevin Harvick returned to the winners circle at Richmond Raceway last weekend, and that particular race was the biggest race of the season to date as far as betting turnover was concerned. Harvick started the race as a $15 chance, and although several drivers were well backed, the standout was Kyle Bush ($4.50) who failed after winning that race four years in a row.

Clint Bowyer was runner-up in Richmond, and although an $15 chance this week in Talladega, he does have wins at the course in 2010 and 2011 (latter part of season) as well as a second here to opening $10 favourite Jimmie Johnson. Harvick ($13) must also be included in the mix as he finished second to Bowyer in 2010 after winning this corresponding race early in the season. It appears as though Denny Hamlin will be returning this week after a problem with his back, but he will be starting the race with Brian Vickers due to finish. That is yet to be confirmed, the reason behind that is that allows Hamlin to get any points that Vickers can attain on the race. 

MOTO GP 

It is short odds that this week’s Spanish motoGP will be won by a Spaniard, with Valentino Rossi ($5.25) the only real chance to spoil the party for the locals.

Race favourite is Jorge Lorenzo ($2.40) who won the season opener in Qatar before finishing 2nd to Marc Marquez in the USA. Marquez is the $3.25 second pick this week, followed by Dani Pedrosa ($4.50) then Rossi. Lorenzo finished runner-up to Casey Stoner last year after winning in 2010 and 2011, while Pedrosa also has a fine record on home soil with a win in 2008 and placings in all other years since 2006. Rossi has numerous wins in Spain, the most recent of those in 2009, and spanning back to the early 2000’s when he dominated the sport. Although the season is only 2 races old there doesn’t seem to be a lot between the 4 riders mentioned, but Marquez has shown that he is going to be hard to hold out in any race this season.