Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - April 24

NRL 

Betting on Round 7 has been open for over a week now, and thankfully there weren’t a lot of changes due to the rep games last weekend. The big question mark out of the Test match was Greg Inglis and a hip injury, but it sounds as though it is ongoing and he is expected to line up for Souths against Manly in the clash of the round on Friday night. Manly have been awarded the favourites tag at $1.68 because the game is at Brookvale but there has been more bets early for Souths at $2.20.

The two Anzac Day matches have seen unprecedented business early in the week, all focussed on the 2 favourites. The Roosters have been backed head to head at $1.33 and have been included in most league multis, and nearly all of those include Melbourne as well. The biggest multi to date has been $10,000 for both of those sides to win at $1.54, and with New Zealand forced to make several changes in their match against the Storm, the Warriors have blown to $6.25 with Melbourne now $1.13 from $1.16.

Cronulla have been confidently backed into $2.00 to beat a disappointing Bulldogs outfit on Sunday while Parramatta are also on the move ($1.82) against Penrith on Monday night.

AFL

The Anzac Day game between Essendon and Collingwood is one of the highlights of the AFL season, and with both sides in form, it is sure to be a terrific betting contest.

Unfortunately for Essendon they will be without Michael Hurley and Dustin Fletcher, and that has seen the price blow from $2.12 out to $2.35. Being the outsider doesn’t count any team out of these matches as 3 of the last 10 have been won by the underdog, although the Magpies have won the last 3 as favourites, the last of those by 1 solitary point. The Anzac Day Medal always creates plenty of interest and Dane Swan heads the betting at $5.00 ahead of Scott Pendlebury and the well backed Jobe Watson at $7.00.

Port Adelaide remain undefeated this season but continue to be written off by most apart from their supporters. They can answer those critics this week when they host the West Coast, and punters from Adelaide think they can win again. After opening at $1.95 slight outsiders, the Power were in to $1.90 equal favourites by Wednesday and may even go in as public elects. It is a big opportunity for them as the Eagles are nowhere near the side many expected them to be.

The jury is still out on both Carlton and Adelaide, so another win to either is vital this week. The Blues’ small forward line did an admirable job in disposing of the Eagles last week, and with Eddy Betts expected to be back this week, their running game will fully test the Crows. There has been some support for Adelaide at $2.75 but it has been overshadowed by the support for Carlton at $1.45.

There have been a lot of big price moves in the Brownlow Medal but there are 2 standouts. Hawthorn’s Grant Birchall has been on fire in defence this season, and is now $17 after opening at $501. The bigger story is probably Justin Westhoff of Port Adelaide who was $2001 in the original market, but is now $21. It seems as though nobody expected Westhoff to get off to the start that he has as there were no takers at the huge odds although there has been a lot of bets for him over the last week at $51. 

SUPER RUGBY 

There were more upsets in Super Rugby last week, and although that has been the trend all season, the upcoming round does look a little more predictable with all of the sides playing at home favoured to win.

The Reds have got a few problems off the field to deal with, and while they were lucky to escape with a 19-19 draw against the Brumbies last week, they are $1.50 to beat the Blues this week. The Blues are coming off a bye and the Reds have had the wood on them recently winning their last 3 meetings including one of those in Auckland last year. The Reds still have a way to go to find their best form, but if the dramas with Digby Ioane don’t affect them on the field then they should win.

The Brumbies still top the table even though they have had 2 draws in their last 3 matches, and they face another dangerous side this week in the Force. The Force have been favourites 3 times this season and have lost them all, but in the other 6 matches they have either won or covered the line as outsiders. That statistic should mean that they are chance of staying with the line of 9 points against the Brumbies this week, and it is worth noting that the Kings did hold the Brumbies to a draw in Canberra a month ago. 

GOLF

The European Tour returns to Asia again this week with the Ballantines Championship to be played in Seoul.

The field is a little short on depth this year, and for that reason the favourite, Louis Oosthuizen has been heavily supported at $10. There hasn’t been a lot of money for many to beat him, apart from Richard Ramsay, Bernd Weisberger and Marcus Fraser. Weisberger ($31) won last year defeating Ramsay ($26), while Fraser ($34) won here in 2010. He is the shortest of the Aussies and looks hard to beat, but Brett Rumford ($67) could be an improver. Rumford has played well at this course before, and did shoot a round of 67 prior to finishing in a tie for 7th in 2011.

The Zurich Classic on the PGA Tour is a wide open event with Justin Rose the opening favourite at $13 ahead of Jason Dufner ($17), Keegan Bradley ($18) and Bubba Watson on the same line of betting. Dufner won last year in a playoff from Ernie Els, and the veteran South African has also had backing at $41. It is understandable why there is good support for Dufner as he was tied for 3rd in 2011 (behind Bubba) after finishing 7th in 2010 and 9th in 2009. It is rare to see such consistent form over a period of 4 years at the one course. There are 11 Australians in the field and John Senden is the $4.25 favourite to be the Top Aussie ahead of Greg Chalmers and Aaron Baddeley at $5.25. 

HARNESS RACING 

One of the highlights on the Harness Racing Calendar is the Miracle Mile and it will be run at Menangle on Sunday.

There has been a lot of conjecture around the make-up of this year's field. Many thought that it should have been confined to 6 runners instead of 8, and that Victorian Caribbean Blaster was entitled to get a run before Terror To Love. The barrier draw has made it interesting with Terror To Love drawing the outside. The Kiwi champ has won 21 races and $1.3m in New Zealand but has only one placing in Australia from 4 starts. TattsBet punters think he will break his maiden status on Sunday as he has been backed from $7.50 into $5.50. The other firmer in the betting is the favourite Excel Stride, now $2.20 after opening at $2.30. It isn't hard to work out that he looms as the one to beat after a terrific third in the Inter Dominion Final, and has followed that up with 2 wins over a mile since. Stablemate Mach Alert is the second pick at $3.50 and he has been a big improver in his first season on the Grand Circuit. He wasn't really spoken of as a major contender until winning the Coca Cola Sprint two Saturday's ago in a scintillating 1.50.9. Tactics will play a major role but the 2 at the head of betting look the benchmarks. 

GREYHOUND RACING 

Interstate raiders dominate the market for Thursday night's Queensland Derby at Albion Park, and it is hard to see the title staying in the Sunshine State. The best of the local hopes is Top Story ($11) who scored a solid heat win but will have to do it all again from box 5. Hello Good Bye ran a very fast 29.84 winning his heat from box 6, and will be all the better after his first race on the track. He is a super fast dog and is a recent Perth and Australian Cup finalist. Provided he can keep out of trouble in the first 5 metres he has the pace to lead all the way, and should justify the short quote of $1.90. NSW visitor Jagger Swagger ($3.75) has already won 2 derbies, and although he was the fastest heat winner he will have to do everything right from box 7. 

NASCAR

Matt Kenseth started the well backed $6.00 favourite after qualifying in last weekend's Nascar race in Kansas, and he didn't let supporters down. Kasey Kahne was in the placing’s again, just ahead of Jimmie Johnson.
This week the Nascars will be in action at Richmond International Raceway in Virginia, and if track history is anything to go by then Kyle Busch looks next door to a good thing. Busch has won the last 4 races run at Richmond early in the season, and finished second in the previous 2 before the wins. Johnson has won 2 races on the circuit since 2006, both of those being the events run later in the year, while the other driver with 'form' here is Denny Hamlin, but he is still a week or two from returning after a back injury. 

SUPERBIKES

Assen is a municipality in the north of the Netherlands, and they will be hosting the Superbikes this week.

This looks to be one of the most open seasons ever even though we have had only 2 rounds. Sylvain Guintoli and Eugene Laverty won the 2 races at Phillip Island, and although Chaz Davies won both races in Aragon, there appear to be half a dozen real chances each time they step out. Laverty is the nominal favourite for race 1 at $3.00, but Guintoli ($5.00) will be hard to beat, and did win here last year. Tom Sykes ($4.00) has been quick in the practise sessions but is yet to win this year, while now that Davies ($5.00) has found the winners circle he must be rated highly again. Jonathon Rea ($11) might be the big improver here as he has won a race here the last 2 years, and won both back in 2010. 

BIG BETS 

$10,000 at $1.52 Melbourne Storm/Sydney Roosters Anzac Day NRL Double

Winning Saturday Racing Multi

$1 at 13,700/1

SYD Race 1 – French Gift ($31)
SYD Race 4 – Platinum Kingdom ($13.54)
SYD Race 8 – Sacred Falls ($32.64)

WON $13,700 for just $1