Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - April 11

AFL

After an ordinary opening round, punters fought back last week with all 9 favourites winning. Of those, 8 were stand out fav’s, but in the Eagles v Hawks game, the Hawks were the ‘money’ side all week, and did eventually start the slightest of favourites.

This week 6 of the home sides are the outsiders, and while a couple of those won’t really be ‘at home’, it is a rarity to see so many away teams as the favourites. There are a host of good games, but the one that has captured the imagination of punters is the North Melbourne v Sydney game which will be played at Blundstone Arena in Tasmania. The Roos opened at $2.30 and that was snapped up early, and the betting has subsequently been split between them at the new price of $2.25 and the Swans at $1.65. The Roos have lost both games to date but where in a winning position in both. They were 41 points up against Geelong last week, and using that as a barometer, we cannot see why they cannot beat the Swans. Sydney disposed of the Suns, but that was on a heavy ground, so perhaps that may come into play this week.

The Suns stuck with the Swans for half a game before Sydney came away to win, and those conditions last week might also be to the detriment of the Suns this week against Brisbane. They will be coming into this game full of confidence though on the back of beating St Kilda at Metricon in Round One, and Brisbane are another side yet to win a game. There haven’t been any big bets taken on this game yet, but clearly most think there is a big chance of an upset as the bets have been running in favour of the Suns ($2.75) at a ratio of 3-1.

That situation is nearly identical to what we are seeing in the ‘Showdown’ which will be the last game of the round on Sunday evening. Port Adelaide opened at $2.55 with the Crows at $1.50, and it hasn’t moved for 4 days. There is a stack of interest, but the trend is the same as with the Suns, for every bet that comes for Adelaide there are three that come through for Port to win. This will be the 34th running of the Showdown, and Port hold a slender lead having won 17 of the previous encounters.

St Kilda is expected to chalk up their first win for the season, and although they seem short at $1.25, the first big wager of the week was $20,000 for them at the opening quote of $1.28. 

RUGBY LEAGUE 

Canberra’s came from 16-0 down at half time to beat the Roosters last Sunday night, and that has been one of the talking points of the week. The Raiders have had more injury troubles than most other sides, and drifted from $2.55 out to $3.25 before the game started. When they trailed by 16 points at the major break they were posted at $10, but nobody had enough confidence to take that. There were a few bets taken for them at the line of +22.5 points, but nothing major.

This week the Raiders role will be reversed as they go in as warm $1.52 favourites against the Warriors at $2.55. TattsBet hasn’t been rushed for business at that price for Canberra, and it is easy to understand why. Over the last 3 years the Raiders have a terrible record when favourites, and the Warriors have definitely improved with a win over the Cowboys and a narrow 2 point loss to Souths.

Whilst on Souths, they have zoomed into favourites ($2.05-$1.70) to beat Melbourne on the back of Billy Slater being a doubtful starter. Slater missed training on Wednesday and has had a troublesome foot placed in a moonboot, and that has turned the betting on its head. Both sides had their share of problems last week before winning, it will be unfortunate if Slater doesn’t play this week, but does make the task at hand for the Rabbitohs a little easier.

Newcastle are the shortest price of the round at $1.16 against Penrith, and punters are now treating the Knights as a serious threat for the title. Prior to last week’s round, TattsBet took a bet of $5000 for them to win the competition at $12, but they eased out slightly to $13 after going down to the Dragons. 

SUPER RUGBY 

With half of the Super Rugby season behind us, a look at the results so far reveals that it has definitely been the year of the underdog. Of the 35 games to date, only 20 favourites have won, and only 13 of those have covered their lines. That is an appalling ratio, and explains why we have seen an increase in punters happy to take the ‘plus’ for outsiders, and it has been fruitful to date. There have been a couple of sides who have continuously been the outsiders and who nearly always ‘cover’ the line, with the Cheetahs and Kings to the fore of that group.

The Kings travel to Melbourne this week, and while the Rebels defeated the Force last week, the Kings put up a mighty performance to draw with the Brumbies. The ACT side were $1.01 to win that game, and the line was a massive 25 points start, but punters have ignored that effort and have been happy to take the Rebels to win at $1.35 and also -6.5 points at $1.90. They have a poor record when favourites, so it will be interesting to see where this game ends up. Both sides have poor defensive records, so stand by for a high scoring match.

Amazingly the Highlanders still haven’t won a game, and they will be at home to the Brumbies on Friday night. The Brumbies have been slightly off as well since losing David Pocock, but have an imposing record against the Highlanders having won 5 of the last 6 meetings including 2 of the last 3 in the South Island. While the Brumbies are slight fav’s at $1.75, the bulk of early support has been for the home side at $2.05.

The Chiefs and the Reds meet this week with both sides coming off a bye, and while the Reds have won their last 3 against the Chiefs (2 in Hamilton), they ae virtually unwanted at $3.50. The Chiefs are the $3.75 top pick to win the title and go into this match as the best backed side of the round at $1.30, although punters have been wary of taking the -7.0 line. 

SOCCER

The A League finals format has changed this year, and the 2 winners this week will go through to play in the final a week late. Western Sydney have been one of the fairy tales of Australian sport over the last year or so, and after being $67 prior to Round 1, are now the $2.60 favourite to take the title. The Central Coast Mariners have been the other side at the head of betting for most of the season and are now $2.75, with Brisbane ($4.50) and Melbourne Victory ($6.50). Brisbane have accumulated a decent injury toll from last week’s win over Adelaide but look set to roll the dice and play a couple under an injury cloud. Thomas Broich is the major concern, and if he is to pull out, then the Roar will drift out from the current $3.65 they are to beat the Wanderers who are $1.95. Once again the draw has been friendless at $3.45.

The draw option has been treated the same way in the other semi with very few takers at $3.70. Central Coast have been a decent mover given the status of the game, into $1.70 after opening at $1.91. Melbourne Victory were fortunate to put Perth out of the competition last week, but their recent overall form has been good enough to suggest that they are value at $4.50. 

CRICKET

England are a warm $1.48 to win the upcoming Ashes series, but following on from a disappointing tour of New Zealand, punters are not overly keen to take the short odds. Australia have had their own problems as we all know, but there have been twice as many bets for the Aussies at $4.25 than we have seen for England. The drawn series is quoted at $6.00, and that option has been virtually ignored. Once we can all work out roughly who is likely to be in the squad there will be series batting and bowling markets available. The ‘Series Correct Score’ is open and it has revealed a couple of interesting trends. There has been a number of bets for Australia to win 5-0 ($101), 4-0 ($51) and 4-1 at $41, while there has also been money for England to win 5-0 at $17 and 4-0 at $11. An Aussie series clean sweep (5-0) might be a bit ambitious, but we can all hope! 

GOLF

Tiger Woods may not be the player that he was 10 years ago, but his best form this year still warrants him being public elect for The Masters. When betting opened 2 months ago, Tiger was $7.50 equal favourite with Rory McIlroy, but the Irishman’s form has been erratic since he joined Nike, although he did finish second in the Texas Open last week. Rory came in from $12 to $10.00 on Monday, and that placing has definitely inspired some interest on him. Tiger on the other hand has continually firmed since the market opened, and punters are more than happy to take the $4.50 for him to win the Masters for a 5th time. Adam Scott finished equal second with Jason Day behind Charl Schwartzel here 2 years ago, and although he has played sparingly this year, his form has been fantastic apart from a first round loss in the Matchplay. Day has struggled over the last 12 months, but there are many who think that both can feature prominently as they have been heavily supported at $23 (Scott) and $41 (Day). Brandt Snedeker is another who has met with good support including one bet of $600 each way at $31, but being the first Major of the year, there is a stack of interest in most players under the $51 mark. There is always some sort of story associated with the Masters, and the lead up has been dominated by the youngster Tian Lang Guan from China. The 14 year old obviously has a big future ahead of him, and even though everything points towards Guan having the weekend off, we have taken a handful of small bets on him at $1501 to achieve the impossible. 

SUPERBIKES

It is nearly 2 months since the Superbike season got under way, and this week the second round will be held in Aragon. The first round was held at Phillip Island and saw Sylvain Guintoli and Eugene Laverty successful in the 2 races held, and that pair are the equal second favourites at $4.50 to win the riders title behind Marco Melandri ($3.75). The only other rider under $10 is Tom Sykes at $4.75, and that quartet head the betting for race 1 in Aragon. Melandri is the favourite, and he has form here having won a race here both years that Aragon has been part of the schedule, with the retired Max Biaggi having won the other two. Laverty showed what he was capable of during qualifying at Phillip Island and will be the second pick, just ahead of Guintoli and Sykes, with the other contender likely to be Michel Fabrizio who finished 3rd in the first race at Phillip Island. 

NASCAR

As we pointed out last week, Jimmie Johnson looked the one to beat at Martinsville, and he duly saluted. Johnson started the $4.00 favourite after opening at $5.50, and that win has seen his Sprint Cup Championship odds cut to $3.50.

This week the Nascar’s will be in action in Texas for the running of the NRA 500. Johnson is one of a number or drivers who have a good record on the circuit, and last year was second to Greg Bifle in the early season race and defeated Kyle Busch in the latter part of the season. He has to be favourite again, and is $5.00, but Matt Kenseth ($7.00) looks hard to beat as he has a win and has been placed a number of times around this circuit. 

V8 SUPERCARS 

The V8 Supercars are on the quick back-up in New Zealand this week after racing in Tasmania last week. Fabian Coulthard was the star at Symmons Plain winning 2 of the 3 races, while Jason Bright won the other. The format used there was meant to even the competition up, and that was achieved, and this week it will return to a more formal way of running races. There will be 2 races on Saturday and 2 on Sunday, and the meeting will be held at the revamped Pukekohe course. Around $6m has been spent on an upgrade to the course which is set outside of the horse racing track, and the new course features several turns out of the back straights. Jamie Whincup is the opening $3.50 favourite for race 1, and he along with Coulthard (2nd fav at $4.50) have been the two drivers to attract early betting. Craig Lowndes is next in line at $5.00 ahead of Jason Bright ($8.00) and Shane Van Gisbergen ($9.00), who along with Coulthard is a Kiwi so will be looking to win on home soil. 

FORMULA ONE 

Sebastian Vettel controversially won the last race in Malaysia and will go to Shanghai this week as the $2.75 favourite to win again. Vettel won the corresponding race last year defeating team-mate Mark Webber, and punters think that Webber can turn the tables as there has been good money for him at $10. Judging by what was said after the race in Malaysia where Vettel passed Webber when he had the race in his keeping, it is hard to imagine that the same thing would happen again, so perhaps Webber is value at the longer price. Fernando Alonso has a poor record in China having been placed there only once, and that was back in 2007. Punters have put that poor record aside however as he has been very well supported at $4.00, as has Lewis Hamilton at $8.00. Hamilton loves the course, is a two-time winner and has been placed as well. 

BIG BET 

$20,000 at $1.28 St Kilda to beat GWS in AFL Round 3

Multi Winner

9-leg AFL Round 2 Multi - $5 at 2024/1 to collect $10,123

Richmond 1-39 v St Kilda at $2.20
Sydney -39.5 v Gold Coast at $1.80
Fremantle -24.5 v Western Bulldogs at $2.05
Adelaide -9.5 v Brisbane at $2.10
Essendon -46.5 v Melbourne at $2.05
Port Adel -40.5 v GWS at $2.10
Geelong 1-39 v Nth Melbourne at $2.20
Collingwood 1-24 v Carlton at $3.30
Hawthorn 25+ v West Coast at $3.80