Eagle Farm Preview March 20

Eagle Farm 20/03 – Assessed on the current track rating of a dead 4

Race 1 – Very similar bunch of horses that contest this type of race week in week out. Hard to work out where the speed in this race might come from. Hot Bickies is the likely leader and comes off a decent second last Friday in a very average maiden at Ipswich. Cahill stays on board which is a good indicator to his chances. Early favourite might be Prickly Ballroom and this is clearly the worst race she has contested but 58.5kg and first look at 2200m doesn’t overly excite me. Not the type of race I would be getting overly wrapped up in.

Race 2 – Competitive maiden where the main chances come out of the Smiles For Layla maiden. That race was run on a Heavy 9 track so the form line becomes a little tricky. The early speed should come from Rocking Empire and Bewhatyouwannabe. New Spur and Mishani Edge should be able to get the spots on the back of these two and I think they are the top two chances. New Spur had competitive form in stronger maidens at Newcastle and Kembla Grange last preparation and was good first up. Mishani Edge was very easy in betting on debut but ran a respectable race after racing wide for most of the trip. Don’t like the jockey change at all but he has to be a good chance.

Race 3 – Perfect Glory has the blinkers on for the first time (stable winning 14.3% on SP with horses 1st start with blinkers) and looks to be the leader. I’m expecting a much improved performance from her. She was second after 200 metres last start in the Lennie’s Choice race last start where Lennie’s Choice ran clearly the fastest 1st sectional of the day. With that same early speed she should be able to cross to the fence here. On that basis she is the top tip. Germayne Lass is building a very good record and has the flying combination of Forster/Cahill. No trial but she has be too respected. Watch any market moves for Rare Fragrance. She has good provincial Victorian form but I wasn’t overly taken with her recent Deagon trial.

Race 4- Looks the right race for Show Your Money who was well supported by the right stable money at a decent price on debut and ran a really good race after missing the start and been the widest runner on the turn. The maiden was a very strong race which ran a faster time than the Class 3 and Open Hcp on the same day!! Other chances look to be the Schmidt horses 9 and 10 but I would be surprised if they were able to beat Show Your Money.

Race 5 – Tough Race to kick off the Quaddie and I would be going as wide as possible. Form lines come from many different races. The Last General had very patchy Sydney form but was only beaten 2.2 lengths in an ATC midweek meeting at Wyong 5 runs ago. I was impressed with his recent trial behind the speedy Doubtfilly. Riddle Me This and All My Angels come out of a strong Saturday 3yo race. Expecting Riddle Me This to improve dramatically as he has had zero luck in both runs this prep. All My Angels was good last start but I just have the slight concern he is suited to wet tracks. San Jose is another horse that has raced without luck in both runs this prep. He goes forward and despite burning favourite punters more than once he has to be considered.

Race 6 – The progressive Lennie’s Choice gets his chance to go back to back. He is a flying early speed horse and there doesn’t look to be any other horse that can go with him early. The two main dangers to him are Britaila Kate who drops significantly in weight from her last two runs and gets
Browne on board. Devil’s Melody always seems to find trouble in her races which is often the case with a sprinting backmarker but she is always a chance in these midweek races. Happy to be against Sunset Showdown who I believe is a wet tracker and have him mapping at best 3 wide.

Race 7 Looks to be decent speed on paper with Uppland and Go Johnnie Go likely to be the two front markers. Really keen on the chances of That’s Karma. She sprinted excellent first up to win and then hit the line strongly in the sit/sprint race won by Hold Me Tight. The lack of solid run races was against her last start when stepping up in distance on the heavy track. I like her to beat Write Cheek who has been racing very consistently in Saturday races and gets Browne back who rode her in her last victory. Caressable One should get every chance from the inside draw and drops 3 kgs after winning a set weights Class 3 last start.

Race 8 – Interesting last race with plenty of speed engaged. Whispering Gap, Faultless Dancer, Troilus Fuse and Darth all like to race on the pace. Like one who should be a bit of a price in Chart who has been in two unsuitable races this preparation. He has raced well third up in the past and from the good draw hoping he can get into a midfield position. Two backmarkers that will get their chance with the expected hot speed are Awesome Ransom and Lady Guevara. Awesome Ransom had the flashing lights on her 1st up ..the leaders did run a very slow last sectional so the run wasn’t as good as it appeared but I have too much respect for the trainer. Lady Guevara was a freakish winner of her maiden two starts ago before hitting the line at Ipswich. Massive step up in grade for her but she deserves a crack at this race.

 

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