Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - November 14

RUGBY UNION

The Wallabies had a big win against Italy in Turin last week, but will face some stiff opposition when they play Ireland in Dublin on Saturday night. The Aussies have opened at $1.72 with Ireland at $2.10, and the early bets have been for Ireland. The last time these 2 sides met was in a pool match of the 2011 World Cup in Auckland. On that occasion Australia were 12 point favourites but went down 15-6, and the Wallabies have only won once in the last 4 matches played in Ireland, so this could go either way.

England defeated New Zealand at their last encounter at Twickenham last year, but go into this week’s match against the All Blacks as $5.25 outsiders. New Zealand are $1.15 and the line has opened at -11 points, and on current form the home side must be given some chance of a win, and definitely of going inside the handicap. England’s only loss in 2013 (9 matches) was to Wales in Cardiff, however the All Blacks have now racked up 12 winning matches in a row after disposing of France last week.


RUGBY LEAGUE

The Rugby League World Cup is now at the quarter final stage, and 3 of those 4 matches appear mere formalities. The lines are reflective of that with New Zealand opening at -41.5 v Scotland, Australia -55.5 v USA and England -39.5 v France. The one match that does look a contest is Samoa against Fiji where the Samoans have opened at $1.50 to win the match and -5.5 at the line. These 2 sides have played some brutal football over the past fortnight, but from what we have seen to date Samoa look to have the edge. While all 3 favourites in the other matches have big lines set, the trick is to try and ascertain what will happen. It has been a pretty torrid campaign for those that take the minus lines, of the 21 matches played to date, only 7 favourites have covered the spread. The danger with taking a big minus is that once the better sides get a winning score on the board, they can rest players, or just take things easy knowing there are bigger matches to come.

If all goes to plan, it appears as though Australia will play the winner of the Samoa game and New Zealand will play England in the semi’s. That should ensure an easier passage for the Kangaroos through to the final but they have eased in the market to win the title this week, now out to $1.38 from $1.33. TattsBet have taken twice as many bets for New Zealand than Australia to win the World Cup, and the Kiwis are now $3.25 after being $3.50 earlier this week. England have hovered around the $12 mark since losing to Australia but we haven’t seen any serious money for them.


CRICKET

The Australian squad for the first Ashes test has been named and that has sparked plenty of interest in that test as well as the series.

The long range weather forecast says there is a chance of rain intervention during the first test at the Gabba, and the draw has firmed from $3.50 into $3.25. Australia and England are both at $2.60, and with the named side including Shane Watson, there is now money for Australia for the first time since betting opened several weeks ago. The betting to win the series is a little bit different as most of what we have taken in the past 7 days has been for England who are now $2.10 with Australia at $2.50, and a ‘drawn series’ ignored at $5.25. The value appears to lie with Australia in that option.

With Michael Clarke continuing to face back problems and Shane Watson facing injury concerns, punters have shunned both in the market to make the most runs for Australia in the series. Clarke opened at $3.25 with Watson at $4.50, and neither attracted a bet in the first 48 hours of betting!

Dave Warner is easily the most popular at $5.00 ahead of George Bailey ($7.00). The ‘most wickets’ option for Australia is proving popular with parochial Queensland punters happy to stick with Ryan Harris who is the $3.50 favourite, with Peter Siddle ($4.00) the other bowler to attract support.

Sachin Tendulkar’s 200th test match in Mumbai this week will also be his last, and while it quite clearly is massive news in India, TattsBet is also seeing a lot more interest than normal due to the world wide coverage. India will play the West Indies in the second test with the home side backed from $1.60 into $1.50 while the draw is $3.40 and the West Indies are the $9.00 outsiders. Tendulkar is one of 3 players at $4.50 to score the most runs in the first innings for India and 80% of the bets have been for Tendulkar in that market as well.


BASKETBALL

Few teams have made a more impressive start to an NBL season than the Perth Wildcats have this campaign. Trevor Gleeson’s side is six from six and it has been rarely troubled so far. The Wildcats are now warm $2.00 favourites to win the title with Adelaide ($3.25) the only serious threat at the moment. The Cats take on Cairns at home on Friday night where they will be red hot favourites, but then have a tricky trip to Wollongong on Sunday to tackle the Hawks in the LIVE game on Ten. These teams split their four regular season games last season with the Hawks taking out both clashes at The Sandpit. They met again in the semi-finals and it was Perth progressing to the decider after sweeping the boys from the ‘Gong in two games. The better guide comes from their previous meeting this season when the Wildcats monstered the Hawks by 40 points in the west. Perth has won all three on the road, but haven’t been quite as dominant away from home, while the Hawks have looked like a different team in their own gym. The Hawks should be able to keep this relatively close and look the value at the line which will be in the vicinity of 8 or 9 points start.


GOLF

Adam Scott delivered for punters when he won the Australian PGA Championship last week, and most of his supporters have come back again for him to repeat the dose in the Masters this week.

Scott was backed from $4.50 into $3.50 prior to the first round last week, and although he eventually won by 4 shots, Ricky Fowler kept him honest. That was the event Scott was keen to win as it was in front of his home crowd, but he gets another chance to write his name into the history books this week when he tries to win successive Australian Masters titles. The Masters was held at Kingston Heath last year and moves to Royal Melbourne this week, and the course has been inundated with rain leading into the first day. However Scott will go in as the heavily backed $3.25 favourite ahead of Matt Kuchar ($7.50), Marc Leishman ($16) and Brendon De Jonge, who has firmed from $26 into $18. That group behind Scott have met with solid backing as have a couple of players at longer odds including Richard Green at $41 and Scott Hend at $61, but it appears as though most punters think that the event will be dominated by the bigger names.

The Race To Dubai continues this week on the European Tour with 60 players due to battle it out in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. Rory McIlroy hasn’t won on the Tour this year but is the opening $7.00 favourite, and he has been best backed! There is no doubt the Irishman has shown some return to form over recent weeks, but he is the defending champion here, and that must be factored into the equation. Justin Rose ($7.50) and Henrik Stenson ($11) have both had good year’s and are next in the betting just ahead of Ian Poulter at $13. Marcus Fraser and Brett Rumford are the only 2 Aussies in the field of 60 but are both at long odds.


FORMULA 1

Kimi Raikkonen has withdrawn from the last 2 races of the F1 season to have back surgery, so that has seen a small change at the head of the market. Raikkonen had been in dispute with Lotus anyway over money issues, so this basically fast-tracked his exit from the team as he was due to finish at the end of the season. The interest now is whether or not Sebastian Vettel can continue on his winning streak (currently 7 in a row) and if he is to win this week in Texas and the last race in Brazil then he will equal the record of 9 wins set in 1952/53.

So Vettel has plenty to drive for, and he is now $1.33 to win the USA Grand Prix ahead of Mark Webber at $4.50. Webber has plenty of support at that quote as the end of his F1 career draws closer as well, but all drivers under $21 have had backing. The USA F1 has been surrounded by problems in the past, and they were off the calendar between 2008 and 2011. Lewis Hamilton won in slippery conditions last year, and the most topical race of all time was in 2005 when most of the field withdraw leaving a field of 6 to face the starter. Vettel naturally looks the likely winner this week but Webber will not be far away.


NASCAR

The equation for Jimmie Johnson to win this year’s Sprint Cup Championship-all he has to do is finish in the top 23 this week in Miami!

Johnson finished 3rd in Phoenix last week as the heavily backed $2.75 favourite, but his main rival Matt Kenseth could only finish in 23rd position. That more or less handed the Cup on a platter to Johnson, and has had an effect on this week’s market. All Johnson has to do is be careful so that he can finish, so he is a $13 chance rather than his normal short quote. Kenseth is race favourite at $5.00 as he has to win and hope for Johnson to fail, and he is a previous winner at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2007. Kyle Busch is second elect at $6.00 and he is followed by Kasey Kahne and Kevin Harvick at $9.00. There appear to be a lot of chances in this race with Jeff Gordon (won here last year) and Carl Edwards (wins in 2008 and 2010) both rated $11 and $17 respectively, while Greg Biffle ($21) did win this race three years in a row from 2004 through to 2006.


GREYHOUNDS

The heats of the Melbourne Cup will be conducted at Sandown Park on Thursday night and TattsBet will be offering fixed odds on all 8 heats.

All of the recent big race winners will run in the heats, and all eyes will be on the up and coming Black Magic Opal in heat 4. Black Magic Opal was sold to the powerful Jason Thompson kennel earlier in the year, and although he spent some time on the sidelines through injury, he has returned in scintillating fashion breaking the track record at Warrnambool 2 weeks in a row. He will be an odds on favourite to win his heat, but even if he leads as expected, the last 80 metres may present a problem. Gold Town, the second elect, is favourably drawn in box 1, and is definitely capable of an upset.

TattsBet will also be betting on the Tasmanian Gold Cup final on Thursday night where Yappin Jack will be the favourite from box 1, and will also cover the Strathalbyn Cup which will be run on Sunday night.