Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - October 3

RUGBY LEAGUE 

Manly continue to defy the experts and have made their way through to Sunday’s NRL final, and for the first time it seems as though punters are treating them seriously. The Sea Eagles have had a decent injury toll of recent times but continue to tough it out, and shocked many with their win over Souths. Manly went into that game as the underdog at $2.95, but touched $8.00 when they trailed Souths 14-0, but put on 30 points to lead Souths 30-14 before the Rabbitohs scored a converted try at the end of the game. As soon as the finalists were known the betting went up with the Roosters at $1.65 and Manly at $2.25, but the early push was for the Roosters. Manly touched $2.35 on Wednesday, but they are gaining momentum as several big bets has seen that price move into $2.30. Some of those bets include $15,000 to win at $2.35 as well as another of $20,000 at $1.25 on Manly in the ‘Dozen Start’ market of +12.5 at $1.25.

Many are interested in the prices given for each side since they opened last October. The Roosters were $19 in the opening market and came into $13 after signing Sonny Bill Williams, and were $10 prior to round 1. They were $4.00 in the opening week of the finals, and the biggest bets for them during the season were $1000 at $13 and, so they haven’t been overly popular with bigger punters. The same applies to Manly, but they may have frightened most away as they continuously had injury concerns. Manly opened at $8.00, were $13 prior to round 1 (season high), and $4.50 when the finals got under way. Manly also have a $1000 bet riding on them at $13, and that is the largest under their name coming into this week.

Just like the Norm Smith Medal in the AFL, the Churchill Medal will be a massive betting event on Sunday night. Sonny Bill is the $6.00 favourite and has a lot of admirers, but it is the next 2 in the market that have been the standouts in early betting. James Maloney ($7.00) and Daly Cherry-Evans ($7.00) have commandeered over half of the early betting, and will more than likely firm up a little before kick-off. TattsBet will bet live on the Churchill Medal up until the end of the half time break.

AFL

Hawthorn are the 2013 Premiers but that all seems to have been forgotten with the news that Lance Franklin is leaving the Hawks to go to the Swans. Hawthorn were the $4.50 favourite to win the 2014 flag after Saturday's Grand Final, just ahead of Fremantle and Geelong at $6.00, with Sydney at $8.00. The shock news on Franklin has seen that price slashed $5.50, with Hawthorn out to $5.00. They have been able to win games easily without Franklin this year, but it will be interesting to see how they go now that he has gone for good. There hasn't been any big bets struck yet but there have been a lot of small bets for both Carlton ($17) and Adelaide ($21), while it would be a surprise to many to see the Gold Coast on the same line of betting ($51) as the Brisbane Lions.

Hawthorn were favourites for most of the year to win the flag, while Fremantle were never really given much chance by punters until they actually made the final. The Dockers opened at $2.40, and in a huge betting game eventually started at $2.25 with Hawthorn easing out to $1.68. The biggest bet on the game was $24,000 for Hawthorn at $1.60 but there were numerous 4 figure multi's take with Souths to win the NRL on Friday night (beaten by Manly) into the Hawks on Saturday.

There were plenty of happy winners when Jack Gunston kicked the first goal of the final for Hawthorn. Gunston firmed from an opening $11 to start as one of 3 favourites at $8.00, with the biggest bet recorded against his name being $1000 at $11. Brian Lake winning the Norm Smith Medal must go down as one of the 'feel good' stories for the year, and was the result that bookies were looking for. Lake eased from an opening $67 out to $101 on the day of the match. There were over 300 individual bets with TattsBet for Lake to win the Medal, with the biggest of those (there were 3) of $50, yielding each fan a windfall of $5000. The win by Lake was one of the biggest result on the match for TattsBet, and destroyed the theory that the mid-fielders always win!

The Aussie Rules season will wrap up this week with the SANFL final. Norwood have been the benchmark all season and opened at $1.22 to beat North Adelaide ($4.15) who they thrashed by 51 points back in round 23. North have improved a lot since then however with Lewis Johnson back in the side, and there has been money for them to win. They have plenty stacked against them however as they will be trying to win the flag from 5th position on the ladder.

RUGBY UNION 

The final round of the Rugby Championship will be played this weekend, and with South Africa still a mathematical chance to win the title, this week's match against New Zealand at Ellis Park in Johannesburg takes on added importance. South Africa need a 4 try bonus point win over the All Blacks, which will not be easy and that is why they are $8.00 to win the title. On the positive side, the last 4 matches between the 2 sides at this venue has yielded 29 tries, with South Africa having won 4 of the last 5 matches here, but they were between 1995 and 2004.This is shaping as a terrific betting game with both sides opening at $1.90, and the early support has been for the home side.

Australia travel to Rosaria to take on Argentina, and the Puma's have opened the slightest of favourites at $1.85 with the Wallabies at $1.95. The Wallabies have won their last 7 matches against the Puma's but have been going terribly and only beat them by 1 point in Perth a few weeks back. That was a narrow victory and the previous 2 meetings between the pair saw wins to the Wallabies by 6 and 4 points, so it is easy to see why the early money has been for the home side here as well. This match will be played on Sunday morning and TattsBet will be betting live throughout.

GOLF 

It will be a quietish week in golf this week without the big fields in Europe and the USA, but TattsBet will be covering an event locally, and there is plenty of focus on the Presidents Cup in Ohio.

The Western Australian PGA gets under Thursday, and it is a more than handy field. James Nitties heads the market at $8.50 from local hope Scott Laycock and Scott Strange at $12, and although Strange has been out of the winners list for some time, it would be fair to say that this field is a lot weaker than what he has been used to meeting on the European Tour, and he will definitely be one to keep an eye on.

The Seve Trophy will be played in France, with the Continental Europeans taking on the team representing Great Britain and Ireland.The European side are the $1.55 fav's ahead of GB & Ireland at $2.45, and the early betting has been for the outsiders. Nicolas Colsaerts heads the 'most points '' market for the Europeans at $6.50 from 3 players on $7.50, Francesco Molinari, Miguel Angel Jiminez and Joost Luiten, while Paul Casey is the $5.50 favourite to top the scoring for GB & Ireland.

The USA have won the past 4 President's Cups, and while they will have the home ground advantage at Muirfield Village, the International side are getting out to good odds. USA opened at $1.42 several weeks ago but have come right in to be $1.25 with the International blowing out to $4.50 (opened at $2.80) and a 'tie'at $16.

There are a host of bet types on the Cup but the most popular is the market for the top points scorers in each team. Tiger Woods is the $5.50 favourite for the USA, but there have been more bets for Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley (both $10) and Brandt Snedeker ($11) than Tiger. Australians dominate the International market where Adam Scott is the $4.75 favourite ahead of Jason Day at $5.50, while the other Australian in the field, Marc Leishman, is the equal outsider at $19. Day has attracted a lot more interest than Scott in early betting even though Scott has had the better season.

NETBALL 

The Constellation Cup series now moves to Australia with the 3 remaining matches to be played here, and the Diamonds would be more than happy returning from New Zealand with the series tied at 1 win apiece.

The Silver Ferns won the first test 55-51 before Australia won the second 47-45 in Auckland, and the 3rd match will be in Adelaide on Friday night. There won't be any football on against this match so we are expecting big interest in it, and the Diamonds have opened as the favourites at $1.58 with the Silver Ferns at $2.35. The remaining two matches will be played in Melbourne and Canberra.

FORMULA 1 

Sebastian Vettel looms as the one to beat in this week's Korean F1 Grand Prix, and punters agree. After opening at $1.75, Vettel has been backed into $1.70 to win again after winning in Singapore 2 weeks ago. Vettel has a huge 60 point lead in the race for the title, and has a rather impressive record at Yeongam having won there the past 2 years. This will only be the 4th running of the Korean GP, and at his only other start in 2010 Vettel had to retire with engine problems. Fernando Alonso was runner-up to Vettel in Singapore and won the race in 2010.

Alonso is on the second line of betting at $5.00 ahead of Lewis Hamilton ($5.75), Kimi Raikkonen ($10) and Nico Rosberg ($12). Raikkonen has had back problems and remains a doubtful starter this week and he has been dismissed as a winning chance by fans even though he finished 3rd in Singapore. On face value Mark Webber may seem well over the odds at $29 but be warned that Webber has incurred a 10 place penalty on the starting grid after falling foul of the officials at his most recent start. That penalty all but rules him out as a winning hope.

NASCAR 

The race for the Sprint Cup looks to be down to 3 main hopes with Matt Kenseth the $2.15 favourite ahead of Jimmie Johnson at $2.30 and Kyle Busch at $3.20. Johnson bounced back to form with a win in Dover last weekend when starting a $5.00 pop behind race favourite Kenseth ($4.00) who had to be content with 7th place.

Racing returns to Kansas this week, a circuit where Kenseth won earlier in the year. TattsBet have installed him as the $4.00 favourite ahead of Johnson at $5.00 and Busch next in the market at $8.00. Kenseth also won a race here last year while Johnson won in 2011 and 2008. Tony Stewart has recorded a couple of wins at Kansas and must also be included in the chances at $15.

V8 SUPERCARS 

Bathurst is still over a week away but money is rolling in for the big race. This week TattsBet took a bet of $7000 on race favourites Jamie Whincup and Paul Dumbrell in Car 1. The price at the time was $2.90, and that was after the pair opened at $3.50 after racing at Sandown a few weeks ago. They are now into $2.80 with the main danger being Car 888 (Lowndes/Luff) at $4.00.

SUPERBIKES 

There are only 2 meetings remaining for the superbikes this season, and after competing in the USA last weekend, they will be in action at Magny-Cours (central France ) this week. Tom Sykes and Eugene Laverty were the 2 winners at Laguna Seca, and those results now see Sykes at $1.40 to win the title. Sykes holds a 23 point lead over Laverty who is at $4.25, with Sylvain Guintoli the other main contender at $7.50. Sykes and Guintoli won the 2 races held at Magny-Cours last year, and Sykes has been installed as the $3.00 favourite to win race 1. Laverty is the second pick at $4.00 along with Marco Melandri, and Guintoli next in the market at $7.00.