Tatts Stats - Cox Plate Weekend

Manikato Stakes (MR8)        9.00pm (AEST) Friday October 25


Winner’s Profile

- 20 of the past 30 winners have been four or five year-olds. Shamexpress (4yo), Moment Of Change (5yo), Rebel Dane (4yo), Sessions (4yo), Samaready (4yo), Diamond Earth (4yo)
- Mares have a great record in the race recently, winning seven of the past 15 renewals. Samaready, Diamond Earth and Arinosa represent the fairer sex in 2013.
- 11 of the past 13 winners were trained outside Victoria. Lucky Nine, Buffering, Temple Of Boom, Rebel Dane, Sessions, Diamond Earch and Arinosa have travelled from interstate to contest the race this year.

Form

- Before Sea Siren’s victory twelve months ago, thirteen consecutive Manikato Stakes winners had finished in the placing’s at their most recent start. Lucky Nine, Buffering, Rebel Dane, Samaready, Diamond Earth and Arinosa fit the bill this year.

Betting

- Favourites have a great recent record in this race, winning five of the past ten renewals of the race, including two of the past three. Only one winner since 2002 has paid more than $8.50 (Danleigh $17 2009).

Selections: Samaready, Rebel Dane, Arinosa, Buffering 


Cox Plate (MR10)                4.40pm (AEST) Saturday October 26


Winners Profile

- Since Super Impose won the Cox Plate as an 8yo in 1992, there have been winners of every age from three to nine but four year olds have the best recent record, with 11 winners in the past thirty years including the past three. Australian Derby winner It’s A Dundeel and Australian Cup winner Super Cool will represent that generation in this year’s race.
- Only seven females have won this race since the inaugural running in 1922, with six mares (Pinker Pinker 2011, Makybe Diva 2005, Sunline 1999/2000, Dane Ripper 1997, Flight 1945/46, Tranquil Star 1942/44) and a lone filly (Surround 1976) passing the post first. Atlantic Jewel was set to start as a hot favourite for the race, but has been scratched, meaning there are no girls in the field this year.
- First emergency Shamus Award gets a run with the scratching of Atlantic Jewel and he will be bidding to become the first maiden to win Australasia’s WFA championship. He is the first maiden to start in the race since Oxberry Way (one placing at 2yo debut from seven starts) in 1984. He finished last.

Form
 
- 21 of the past 29 Cox Plate winners had placed at their most recent start.
- No horse in the past three decades has won the Cox Plate without having a start in October. It’s A Dundeel and Green Moon have both had setbacks during their campaign which means neither of them has started since the Underwood Stakes on September 21. International contenders Side Glance and Mull Of Killough haven’t raced since the Arlington Million in August.
- Since 1983 the race that has been most successfully used as a stepping stone to Cox Plate success has been the Caulfield Stakes, with 11 winners having their last start in that event prior to the Moonee Valley feature. Ocean Park (2012) and So You Think (2010) did the double in the past three years. Foreteller (2nd) and Super Cool (3rd) are the only horses from the Caulfield Stakes backing up in the race this year.
- Four Caulfield Guineas winners have subsequently gone on to win the Cox Plate in the same year (Red Anchor 1984, Surround 1976, Rajah Sahib 1968, Star Affair 1965) but they have a poor record in recent times. Since Drawn finished 3rd in the Plate in 1985, 14 Guineas victors had been unplaced before All Too Hard finished 2nd twelve months ago.
- Of the past 11 ‘older’ horses to win the Cox Plate, seven ran in the Memsie Stakes. Super Cool (3rd), It’s A Dundeel (4th), Green Moon (5th), Fiorente (6th), Happy Trails (7th) and Seville (13th) all ran in the 1400m event at Caulfield at the end of August.

Betting
- In the past decade only two favourites have won the Cox Plate, So You Think at $1.50 in 2010 and Makybe Diva at $2 in 2005.
- Six of the past ten winners have started at double figure odds. Pinker Pinker started at $26 in 2011, So You Think $13 in 2009, Maldivian $11 in 2008, Fields Of Omagh $21 in 2006, Savabeel $15 in 2004 and Fields Of Omagh $17 in 2003.

Barriers
 
- 19 of the past 22 winners jumped from a single figure gate. With a maximum field capacity of 14 runners and six renewals of the race since 1991 run with fewer than ten horses, you can’t read much into those stats.

Quirky Stats
 
- No horse has ever won jumping from barrier 12. That is the gate that favourite It’s A Dundeel will jump from with Atlantic Jewel coming out.
- The past three winners all started from the same barrier as their saddlecloth number. Ocean Park carried saddlecloth nine and jumped from barrier nine twelve months ago, Pinker Pinker carried saddlecloth eleven and jumped from that gate in 2011, while ‘five’ was the number for So You Think three years ago. This year, Happy Trails is number two in the racebook and will jump from barrier two!

Selections: Super Cool, It’s A Dundeel, Happy Trails, Foreteller


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