Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - October 23

RUGBY UNION

The All Blacks won the final Bledisloe Cup test in Dunedin on Saturday night in a high scoring affair. It was definitely a much better showing from the Wallabies who managed to stay inside of the line of 14 points when going down by 8, and Quade Cooper returned to something like his best, so they can take something out of that match as the spring tour of Europe approaches.

The 2015 World Cup will be held in the UK and TattsBet have opened a market to win the title. New Zealand are the opening $2.25 favourites ahead of South Africa ($5.50), England ($6.50), Australia ($8.50) and Wales the only other side in single figures at $9.00. The Welsh have been the big improvers in European rugby over the last couple of years and are the current $3.00 favourite to win the upcoming Six Nations. The big positive for the Wallabies is that the Cup is still 2 years away so they have time on their side to get it right!

The ITM Cup finals will be played this weekend.

The Championship will be on Friday night where Tasman have opened at $1.38 to beat Hawkes Bay, with the line at 7.0. Tasman were at home when they beat Hawkes Bay 18-9 back in week 6, and were most impressive in thrashing Southland by 21 points last week. Hawkes Bay have had a good latter part of the season and make their way into the final after disposing of Otago last week when the outsiders.

The Premiership will be decided on Saturday night with Wellington and Canterbury due to battle it out. These were the 2 best sides in the competition so it is only fitting that they play off. They also met in week 6 when Wellington won 25-19, and at home. Wellington too Counties to the cleaners last week when they won by 31 points but Canterbury were equally impressive when thrashing Auckland by 30. The form says it should be a close match and the betting is the same way with Wellington at $1.66 and Canterbury at $2.20. TattsBet will be betting live throughout both finals.


RUGBY LEAGUE

England were beaten by Italy in a warm-up match for the World Cup last weekend but it appears as though punters haven’t read too much into that loss. There are still plenty of bets coming through for England to win their opening match against Australia, and the price is currently $4.65 (opened $5.50) with Australia at $1.20. The line of 12.5 points hasn’t moved and there have been 3 times as many bets for England than for the Aussies, so clearly the warm-up game has been ignored. One positive to come out of it is that at least they have had match time whereas the Australians chose to go into the series without any.

The betting to win the World Cup has become a fierce battle between Australia and New Zealand, with some small interest shown in England who are out to $9.00. The Kangaroos were as short as $1.25 at one stage but are now out to $1.40 with the Kiwi’s rock solid at $4.00 after touching $5.25. The big money came for New Zealand after Sonny Bill Williams announced he would be playing for them, and that has only bolstered what looks to be a pretty good side on paper. The current World Cup holders will play their first game on Tuesday morning Australian time, and that will be against Samoa. Betting on that match will open on Friday.


CRICKET

The 4th match in the ODI series between India and Australia will be played in Ranchi tonight (Wed), and although the Aussies lead the series 2-1 they are still the outsiders. India are $1.75 to win the best of 7 series with Australia at $2.05, but a win tonight would see that price slashed significantly as a 3-1 lead would see them hard to beat.

India are favourites in game 4 at $1.65, and once again they have met with solid support. Australia on the other hand have been backed at $2.25 for the first time this series, and that is understandable given their form. Betting in the run has proven quite popular on the first half of each match with the last 2 games having dramatic changes to the odds. One thing that we have noticed during this series is that the 50 over form of the game is a long way from being dead and buried as there has been interest across the board.

Queensland have made it through to another domestic final when they play in the Ryobi Cup final on Sunday. While the changed format copped some criticism before it started the level of interest in the games has been higher than expected. The only minus from a betting perspective has been that when 2 games have been scheduled, the ‘non televised’ game has been completely ignored. With Queensland already into the final they have been installed at $1.90 ahead of Victoria ($3.25) and NSW ($3.50). The Vic’s and the Blues will play off on Thursday to see who will go through to the final, and Victoria have opened as slight favourites.


GOLF

The European Tour moves to China this this week where the BMW Masters will be held at Lake Malaren in Shanghai.

This will be the 3rd running at this course but there was only a field of 30 when Rory McIlroy won in 2011. McIlroy finished 2nd last year as well behind Peter Hanson, with Luke Donald, Ian Poulter and Shane Lowry hot on their heels.The US PGA event is also in Asia this week, but both have attracted really good fields. Henrik Stenson has had a terrific year and is the $7.50 favourite to win the BMW from McIlroy at $8.50, then it is Martin Kaymer ($15), Luke Donald ($17) and Lee Westwood ($19). Ross Fisher was beaten in a playoff by Jin Jeong in the Perth International last week and must be given a chance again at $23. There are only 3 Australians in the field but 2 of those must be given a hope on their recent form. Brett Rumford is at $41 while Marcus Fraser is $81.

The US PGA event for the week is the CIMB Classice which will be held in Kuala Lumpur. This is the first time this event will be part of teh PGA Tour and there are also FedEx points up for grabs. Only a field of 78 will contest the CIMB Classic but it oozes class. Favourite Phil Mickelson ($9.00) will be playing for the first time in Malaysia, but punters haven't been overly keen on his chances. Keegan Bradley is the second pick at $14 ahead of Sergoa Garcia ($16), Hideki Matsuyama ($17), Nick Watney ($19) and Bo Van Pelt at $29. Watney won last year defeating Robert Garrigus and Van Pelt, and Van Pelt won in 2011. It is worth noting that prior to this event last year Van Pelt had won the Perth International the previous week, and although he finished 18th last week he was well in contention for the first 3 rounds.


NBL

After meeting in the past two grand final series, New Zealand and Perth clash for the first time on Thursday night in the biggest match-up of the new NBL season. In a strange twist, both teams have new coaches since the Breakers took out their third straight championship with Dean Vickerman replacing new national team coach Andrej Lemanis, while Rob Beveridge left the Wildcats after missing out on the Wildcats job with Trevor Gleeson stepping in to his sizeable shoes.

The Kiwis have started the season in indifferent form and dropped both games on the Sunshine Swing last weekend. It wasn’t a shock that they lost to the vastly underrated Taipans in Cairns on the back end of the trip, but Friday night’s defeat at the hands of Townsville – the team fancied to pick up the wooden spoon – was unexpected. Veteran CJ Bruton struggled with a virus on the trip but the Breakers should have had enough depth to cover him, and their lack of ball movement probably brought about their downfall.

New NZ import Kerron Johnson has looked impressive in the opening three games, but another young American in Perth is really taking the league by storm. James Ennis isn’t just putting up 24 points per night, but the youngster is proving to be a human highlight reel, the likes of which the NBL hasn’t seen for a few years. He has the usual veteran support cast with him in the west, and if the Wildcats’ other import Jermaine Beal can recover from an awful start to the season, then Perth will be super-tough to beat. The scary thing is they still have big man Matthew Knight to return from injury. The Breakers lost just one game at home last campaign – to Perth, as it happens – and the Wildcats might just get up again after spending this week across the Tasman preparing for this clash. The Breakers go into this game as warm favourites, the value seems to be for Perth with the line start.


V8 SUPERCARS

The Gold Coast 600 will be conducted at Surfers Paradise this weekend with 2 races of 300km's on Saturday and Sunday. This is the final of the endurance races where teams will be in the driving seat, and definitely a different race to what we have seen at Sandown and Bathurst. Both of those races were on bigger tracks with car and driver durability the main focus, but racing on the Gold Coast is completely different. The tight street circuit lends itself to potential crashes and it is crucial to qualify well as it is near on impossible to pass. The betting has been a lot slower than it was for Bathurst as it seems a lot of punters want to sit back and see what happens in the practise sessions. The order of the market is very similar to what it was for the last 2 events with Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) the easing favourites from Car 888 (Lowndes/Luff) at $5.00 and Car 5 (Winterbotton/Richards) into $5.50 after opening at $6.00. That duo were victorious at Bathurst after Car 1 winning car at Sandown. The other car to shorten up early in the week was Car 6 (Davison/Owen), now into $8.50 after opening at $10. Whincup and Davison were part of the winning teams that won the 2 races held last year but it is worth noting that for the past few years there has been an international driver in each car but this year it reverts back to the old system.

Betting will close while the practise sessions are held on Friday and Saturday morning and re-open soon after. There will be a fresh qualifying session for the race on Sunday held on the morning of the race.


FORMULA 1

Sebastian Vettel won his 5th race on end and 9th for the season when he won in Japan, and fully deserves to be $1.50 to win this week's F1 race to be held in New Delhi, India. In fact Vettel is probably entitled to be even shorter but Mark Webber showed enough when qualifying fastest in Japan that he may be hard to hold out as his F1 career draws to a close.

This will be the 3rd running of the Indian Grand Prix, and those who fancy Vettel will gain further confidence as he has won both races. Fernando Alonso finished 2nd last year with Webber 3rd, while Jenson Button and Alonso filled the podium in 2011 behind Vettel.

The track in New Delhi is similar to Korea with long straights, and that will always suit the faster cars, namely Red Bull. With Webber showing what he is capable of in Japan, punters have been happy to take the $6.00 in early trading, and he has firmed into $4.50, with most of the money for Vettel coming through multis. There is little interest in any other driver outside of that pair but that will probably change after the practise sessions on Friday.


MotoGP

We witnessed one of the more bizarre motoGP races at Phillip Island last Sunday when Jorge Lorenzo won, but all of post race focus was on Marc Marquez.

Lorenzo went into the race as the $1.80 favourite after setting the time standards, but the race was shortened to 19 laps with concerns that tyres would not cope with a recent re-surfacing of the track. Riders also had to change bikes during lap 9 or 10, in essence cutting the race in half. Amazingly the pit crew of Marquez made an error and he didn't come in on lap 10, and was subsequently 'black flagged' out of the race. At the time Marquez was right on the back of race leader Lorenzo, and while it robbed him of a winning chance, it also meant he couldn't get any points from the race after being disqualified. Lorenzo went on to win easily from Dani Pedrosa and Valentino Rossi, but the bigger ramifications are with the title betting. With only 2 races remaining in Japan and Spain, Lorenzo has now cut the margin back to 18 points behind Marquez, so this week's race takes on another dimension. Marquez has opened the slight favourite at $2.00 ahead of Lorenzo at $2.50, with Pedrosa next at $4.00. Marquez has the luxury that he doesn't have to win whereas Lorenzo probably does, so we expect more support for Lorenzo.


NASCAR

Jimmie Johnson could only manage 13th placing in last weekend's Nascar race at Talladega but it still allowed him to edge 4 points clear of Matt Kenseth who could only finish 20th.The race was won by Jamie McMurray who went in as a $21 chance, and he defeated Dale Earnhardt Jnr. Kyle Busch finished 5th and that keeps him in the Chase for the Sprint Cup as he is 26 pts behind Johnson, the same standing as Kevin Harvick.

The series moves to Martinsville Raceway in Virginia this week, and while Johnson is the opening $7.00 favourite, his form at the track makes interesting reading. He has won 7 of the last 17 races held on the circuit including the race held here earlier in the season. On that occasion he also qualified fastest so looks hard to beat again. Kevin Harvick ($13) is another with good form at Martinsville having won in 2011 while Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin are multiple winners on the track. Stewart ($13) has had a consistent season but Hamlin ($15) hasn't been able to recapture his best form since injuring his back earlier in the year.


GREYHOUNDS

The Topgun will be decided at the Meadows on Saturday night, and most are saying that this is the best Topgun field ever. It is hard to argue with that as there are no less than 6 Group 1 winners in the race and the box draw has opened it up even further. Queensland will be represented by the favourite Punch One Out ($3.60) drawn well in box 2, and the veteran Glen Gallon ($16) who will be contesting his last race. Punch One Out trialled last week at the Meadows and nearly broke the record with a run of 29.55 but the track was fast, and she will need to begin this week. The two to beat are Tomac Bale ($5.00) and Spud Regis ($5.50) drawn in boxes 3 and 4 respectively. Both have experience at the Meadows with Tomac Bale finishing 2nd to Xylia Allen in the National Sprint Final while Spud Regis won the Australian Cup there earlier in the year. Boom South Australian Ernie Bung Arrow ($6.00) was disappointing in his trial last Saturday night but is sure to take plenty of improvement from that.