Gerard Daffy's TattsBet News - January 31

BOXING


The much anticipated re-match between Daniel Geale and Anthony Mundine last night turned out to be a massive betting event, with turnover easily eclipsing any other fight previously offered by Tattsbet.

As much as $1.45 was offered about Geale, who was a slight drifter in the market ($1.36 to SP $1.40) before earning revenge for his only professional loss with a unanimous points win in Sydney. Larger bets included $10,000 at $1.36 and $6,500 at $1.45. Support from rank and file punters was mostly with Mundine however, with bets running at a ratio of 4-1, including several four-figure wagers.

Many punters, perhaps betting with their most hoped for outcome in mind, backed Geale by KO from $5 into $2.50 by jump time. Geale by decision was $1.55 out to $2.75, which attracted one successful wager of $2,000 at the $2.75. Punters were spot on about the fight going the distance, with the majority of support on that option at $1.77.

CRICKET


Australia are coming off what most would say was a disappointing series against Sri Lanka, but are still warm favourites to beat the West Indies in a best of 5 ODI series.

The first of these will be in Perth on Friday, and the Aussies opened at $1.55, but that was quickly snapped up. That move by punters saw the price move to $1.50 with the West Indies at $2.60. There is money for the outsiders at that quote, and it does seem good odds as their bowlers should be at home on the quick Perth wicket. The betting to win the series is similar with Australia at $1.52 and the West Indies at $2.50, while Michael Clarke is the $4.00 favourite to top the series runs for Australia, just ahead of Aaron Finch at $4.50. As we all know, the trick with these now is to try and work out who will be getting game time, and while it has proven difficult over the past month, it will get worse with many of the big names likely to be spelled with an eye to the upcoming series against India. Chris Gayle is the $3.00 favourite to top the runs for the West Indies and is the only one punters want.

RUGBY UNION


The Six Nations gets under way this weekend, and England are the $2.75 favourites to win the title ahead of France at $3.00. Defending champions Wales are $5.50 behind Ireland ($5.00), and while the Welsh completely dominated that series, their subsequent form left a lot to be desired. Admittedly that was mostly against the Southern Hemisphere sides, and it is worth noting that they haven’t lost to a fellow European side since the 2011 World Cup. Wales are $1.67 in the first game against Ireland ($2.15), and the early money is for them.

England defeated the All Blacks in the autumn Internationals, and buoyed by that result, much is expected of them this season. They are hot fav’s at $1.07 to beat Scotland, with the line set at a hefty 14.5 points, which punters have been happy to concede.

The final game will see Italy host France, and while the Italians are lengthy outsiders at $6.00, this is the sort of game that can prove dangerous for the French who are $1.12. The line has been set at 11.5 points in favour of the French, and we think that the Italians can get inside that handicap.

NFL


Since the market opened a week-and-a-half ago, Baltimore has been wound in from an enticing $2.75 to start with to a current price of $2.40. We’ve had one punter slap $4000 on the Ravens at $2.55 and another put the same amount on at $2.45, so there is some good money coming in for the AFC champions. Baltimore has been a heavy underdog in its past two matches against Denver and New England, and the 2000 Super Bowl champs seem to be revelling in their role as the surprise packet of the postseason. The two-week break will do them the world of good, too, given they went to double overtime against the Broncos and have played three playoff matches compared to San Francisco’s two.

They come up against a formidable 49ers outfit which has taken the league by storm in the back half of the season thanks to the thrill-a-minute efforts of second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick. After becoming a starter midway through the season, Kaepernick has shown he is probably as good a runner from the quarterback position as any QB to have played the game. It adds an extra dimension to the Niners’ offence and his running ability opens up the field for his gun running back Frank Gore, as well as a pretty darn good set of receivers. Despite his lack of experience, Kaepernick also showed he can hold his never after leading his team from a 17-point deficit early on against Atlanta in the NFC Championship game to win 28-24.

The teams last met just over a year ago, and the Ravens came out 16-6 winners at home. The 49ers’ defence remains one of the best in the league, but since that encounter their offence has grown a leg (or two, when talking about Kaepernick). San Fran is 5-0 in Super Bowls and expect them to make it No. 6 on Monday morning. TattsBet has plenty of props markets for individual player stats and there will be LIVE betting throughout the game on 13 19 39.

NBL

Melbourne and Cairns are in the box seat to take the fourth and final spot in the NBL finals thanks to Wollongong’s injury struggles, and Sunday’s game could have a massive bearing on which side reaches the postseason. After the Taipans’ 85-71 win over the Tigers in Cairns last Friday night, the teams are locked at 1-all in their season series, so if there is a deadlock in the standings then the winner this round will have a massive leg-up with only one further match-up in round 24 to come.

The Tigers were right in the game last round until Cairns’ inconsistent import Shane Edwards caught fire in the final quarter to steer his team home. The Snakes had lost four of their previous five coming in to that match, so it was a much-needed win, but they’ll need to address a poor away record to leave Victoria with a ‘W’. They’ve won three of eight on the road this season, and two of those victories came in overtime. The Tigers have won five of their last seven starts on their home court, and beat Cairns in the corresponding game 83-77 in mid-December. The battle between import point guards Jonny Flynn and Jamar Wilson will be key; the latter won their individual contest last Friday whereas Flynn broke even in December when the Tigers triumphed in Melbourne.

GOLF


Sergio Garcia is the $7.00 favourite with TattsBet to win this week’s Dubai Desert Classic.

Garcia hasn’t been a regular in the winner’s circle, but the field does fall away rather quickly. Lee Westwood is the second pick at $9.00, and that duo have commanded most of the early action, just ahead of Henrik Stenson ($15), Rafael Cabrero Bello ($29) and Chris Wood at $34. Wood won the Euro event in Qatar last week, and now that he has found a winning formula, punters think he can make it two in a row. Cabrero Bello is the defending champion, and Westwood finished in a tie for second to him in last year’s event.

Tiger Woods bounced back to form with an emphatic win in last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, and not surprisingly he has been the best backed to win the 2013 US Masters. Woods was $8.00 for the Masters prior to last week but is now the $6.50 equal favourite with Rory McIlroy, and the betting public are happy to take that.

Tiger will be having another break this week where Brandt Snedeker is the opening $15 favourite to win the Phoenix Open. Snedeker , Jason Dufner ($17), Rickie Fowler ($17) and Phil Mickelson ($23) have been the standouts as far as bets are concerned early in the week. Mickelson is a two-time winner of this event, back in 1995 and 2005, but just hasn’t been able to put it all together for over 12 months. J.B Holmes is another dual winner (2006, 2008) but is well down the list at $67. Kyle Stanley won last year but goes into this week at $101, while Hunter Mahan ($29) who won in 2010 must be given a strong chance again.

Several Australians are in the field, and the shortest of those are Jason Day and Aaron Baddeley, both quoted at $41. Baddeley is another previous winner having won in 2007, while Day has had trouble recapturing his best form of two years ago.

The Australian Ladies Masters is due to be played at Royal Pines on the Gold Coast this week (weather permitting).

South Korean So Yeon Ryu is the opening favourite at $7.00, and does look the one to beat. She won the 2011 US Open in a playoff, and won the Toledo Classic on the LPGA Tour last August. Second pick is another South Korean in Jiyai Shin ($7.50), and her form is equally as impressive including having won the British Open twice, last year and 2008. Karrie Webb is on the third line of betting, and while most would agree that Webb’s best form may be behind her, a look at her Ladies Masters record says she must be included amongst the chances. Webb has won this event a staggering 7 times, been second on four occasions as well as another four top 10 finishes, an amazing record!