TattsBet News January 24

AFL

TattsBet opened the 2013 Brownlow Medal betting this week, and while there have been a host of players backed already, it is nothing like the Patrick Dangerfield plunge we saw last year. Dangerfield opened at $126 and was backed to win close to $200,000 in the first couple of weeks. While the Crows midfielder didn’t win the Brownlow, he wasn’t far away after having a fantastic season. Having said that, there are already a few who think he can atone in 2013 as there have been bets for him at his opening quote of $13.

Gary Ablett is a previous winner and a perennial vote-getter, and while the Gold Coast are second favourites to win the wooden spoon, we have seen over the past two seasons that Ablett doesn’t have to play in a winning side to get votes. He is clearly the best player in the modern era, and is deserved of the favourite's tag at $8.00. Last year’s winner Jobe Watson is second pick at $9.00, followed by Dane Swan and Trent Cotchin at $11. The top dozen spots in the betting are dominated by midfielders, and looking at recent winners, who can argue against that?


NRL

It is amazing that punters haven’t reacted to the Roosters signing of Michael Jennings. Beforehand the Roosters were $17, and the signing saw TattsBet bring the price in a fraction to $15, but only a handful of smallish bets have arrived. Things are heating up as the season proper draws closer and in the last 7 days we have taken bets of $2000 for Melbourne ($5.50), two separate bets of $1000 for the Cowboys at $11 as well as two bets for the same amount on Brisbane at $13. One side that has been neglected to some degree is Newcastle, and that is in contrast to this time last season after they had signed super-coach Wayne Bennett. The Knights firmed from $17 into $9.00 on that occasion, but this year have remained steadfast at $15, but there haven’t been any big takers.

With the competition looking more even than ever, we will keep the readers posted in the coming weeks of any major moves or bets.

TENNIS


All has gone according to plan on the Men’s side of the Australian Open. Wins by favourites Murray and Federer will mean the top four seeds will have made the semi-finals for the second year in a row. Punters could have secured $4.50 about this happening prior to the tournament. In the outright market, such has been the weight of money for Roger Federer ($6 into $3.75), that Novak Djokovic’s price has hardly moved ($1.90 into $1.85) since the start of the tournament.


Should Murray and Federer advance, it will set up a mouth-watering semi-final clash on Friday night. Murray leads the head-to-head 10-9, but in the Slams, its 3-0 in Federer’s advantage. Murray is expected to start a slight favourite, but Tattsbet is expecting huge support for Federer. We will be betting LIVE throughout the remaining Australian Open matches.



BOXING


Anthony Mundine fans have been fairly active this week, backing their man from $3.75 into $3.50 to win the IBF Title bout against Daniel Geale.

Much has been written and said about the one and only time these two met, but most are tipping a reversal of that result (Mundine won) due to the fact that Mundine is older and slower, and Geale has improved so much. Geale opened at $1.40 and got in as short as $1.26, and although Mundine has continuously had support as his price eased out, the first of the serious bets arrived when he touched $3.75. The largest of those was $1700 and that was followed by another bet of $1000, and it looks like the market has now settled with Geale at $1.30 and Mundine at $3.50. The stats point towards this one going the full distance, and that will be reflected in the ‘Method of Result’ market where both fighters to win by KO will be lengthy prices.

TattsBet will be betting LIVE throughout the big fight.

NBL

With Wollongong suffering an injury crisis, all of a sudden the battle for the final playoff spot in the NBL has been thrown wide-open. With nine rounds left, little separates the Hawks and Melbourne, while Townsville and Adelaide are also part of the chasing pack. The Tigers and 36ers do battle on Sunday afternoon, LIVE on Ten, in a match which could well end Adelaide’s hopes of postseason action.

Melbourne takes on the Taipans in Cairns on Friday night, and thanks to a quirk in the draw, Sunday’s game will be the first time all season the Tigers have had to back up for two games in the same round. There’s no denying they’re one of the form teams in the league right now, with four wins from their past five, while Adelaide has slumped with nine losses in its last ten starts. Former NBA point guard Jonny Flynn has been the key to Melbourne’s mid-season revival, and he had his best game of his short NBL career last weekend against Sydney draining 27 points to go with 7 rebounds and 5 assists. Adelaide’s Adam Gibson has the ability to put the clamps on him, but unless Adelaide seriously dominates the middle, the Tigers should be able to claw their way to victory.


IRONMAN/WOMAN


Round 3 of the Nutri-Grain series will be held at Portsea, Victoria on Sunday, and the format for this round is more like a normal event. The men’s event will be decided over three races where the lowest score wins, and the women will race twice.

Shannon Eckstein and Matt Poole have won the two rounds held so far, and while Poole was an $8.00 chance in Newcastle last start, this week he is significantly shorter at $5.50. Ali Day was runner-up in Newcastle, and looked the winner throughout, and he is the $2.75 equal favourite with Eckstein, while Ky Hurst is the only other in single figures at $6.00.

Brodie Moir has dominated both women’s events held this year,, and she is an odds on favourite ($1.80) to make it three in a row on Sunday. Courtney Hancock looms as the main danger at $3.00, while Jordan Mercer is at $9.00 along with Naomi Flood.

NFL

The two NFL Conference winners get two weeks off before the Superbowl is decided, but punters have been eager to bet on the final with plenty of early support for the underdogs.

That is quite often the case in these finals, but while the prices say Baltimore is the outsider, its form suggests it will be mighty hard to beat. In consecutive weeks, the Ravens disposed of the ruling Superbowl favourites, firstly Denver then New England. On each occasion they were massive $4.25 outsiders, but go into the final at $2.60, and that was after $2.70 was given. San Francisco on the other hand looked in deep trouble when trailing Atlanta 17-0 in their playoff match before going on to win by 4 points. The 49’ers were one of the best backed sides before the season started, firming from $15 into $10, and even as late as last week there was solid support for them ($3.00 into $2.80) when there was only four teams left.


There will be dozens of exotic bet types offered on the Superbowl, and they will be open in the coming days.

CRICKET


The last of the ODI matches against Sri Lanka will be held today (Wed), and that will be followed by two T/20 matches between the two sides on Saturday and Monday.

The players and selectors have been copping plenty in the press for several weeks, and there is little doubt that the interest levels are down. Crowds have been terrible for the ODI matches, and the betting has been down compared to similar matches over the last couple of seasons. The Big Bash was entirely different, and betting on those games has gone to another level, so it will be interesting to see what happens on the two T/20 matches coming up. Just on the Big Bash final, many were curious as to what price the Heat got out to after losing their first three matches. Well the answer is $41, and apart from a couple of small bets, it appears everybody thought they were out of it. There was big interest in the final, particularly for Brisbane even though they were the slight outsider at $2.20, and after winning the toss, a $20,000 bet was taken at $2.10. Just over 50% of the BBL matches were won by the outsiders, so it would have been a winning tournament for those that subscribe to that theory.

GOLF


The Qatar Masters will be played in Doha this week, and it is worth noting that the tournament starts today (Wednesday).

Louis Oosthuizen is the $8.50 favourite from Justin Rose ($10), Sergio Garcia ($13) and Martin Kaymer ($14), and all have either recent form or form at the end of 2012 that points towards them being a winning hope. Of those, Rose has been clearly best backed after his performance last week, but others to meet with similar support have been Peter Hanson ($16), Jason Dufner ($17) and Brandon Grace ($23). Hanson tied for second last year behind Paul Lawrie who goes around again and is $34. Lawrie also won this event in 1999, and is one of only two players to have done so, the other being Adam Scott who isn’t in this year’s field. Henrik Stenson is another with good form in Doha having run second on three occasions, but is virtually unwanted at $21.

The Farmers Insurance Open is the USPGA event this week and it will be played at Torrey Pines (South Course), La Jolla, California. Most would know this event by its last name, the Buick Invitational, and a look down through the records shows that it has belonged to Tiger Woods. Tiger is a six-time winner here, and also won the 2008 US Open when it was played on the same course. While he did miss the cut in Abu Dhabi last week, there is an air of confidence from punters this week which has seen his price cut from $8.50 into $8.00. Brandt Snedeker won last year in a play-off from Kyle Stanley, and he is the second pick at $15 while Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson share the third line of betting at $16. Watson is a previous winner as well (2011), and is always popular whenever he plays.


GREYHOUNDS


There are plenty of Group races coming up in greyhound racing, and TattsBet will be covering them all.

The Roy Maidment Final will be conducted on Thursday night at Sandown over the middle distance of 595 metres, and a terrific field has been assembled. The box draw has made it more intriguing. Queensland hope Metz Magic has come up with the red box and is a $4.50 pop after a fast last start win at the Meadows. The big doubt there is whether or not he will have enough pace to hold the others out. Irma Bale won the Summer Plate at Wentworth Park and is the $3.25 favourite, but is going to have to do it the hard way coming back in distance. Every one of the 8 runners is a chance, but the nod goes to Proven Impala, drawn well in box 3. Proven Impala started favourite in the Sale Cup final where he had no luck before going to Horsham where he won in fast time after finding plenty of trouble. He should feature in the finish and is a $5.00 chance.

The Warrugal Cup will be run on Friday night, and fastest heat winner Boris Fields will go in as the clear favourite after drawing out in Box 8. His trainer Jason Thompson has dominated Group racing over the last few months and will have a two pronged attack as he also has ex Queenslander Coal King engaged.