TattsBet News January 17

TENNIS


Punters at Tattsbet have developed a severe case of Tomic-mania with more money invested on the Gold Coaster to win the Australian Open than any other player. Tomic is $151 into $26 ahead of a potential Third Round blockbuster match-up with Roger Federer on Saturday night. But it’s Novak Djokovic who is the firming odds-on favourite ($2.10 into $1.85) to successfully defend his crown. Such has been the ease with which he has won his first two matches, Djokovic is now just $7 to go through the tournament without dropping a set. Andy Murray remains firm at $4 with Federer rounding out the top three at $6.

The top seeds on the women’s side have done nothing but cruise through their opening rounds. Maria Sharapova is $9 into $7 after a pair of 6-0 6-0 wins to open her campaign. Serena Williams was able to replicate that scoreline in her opening round and she remains a $1.83 odds-on top-pick despite some concerns over an injured ankle.

CRICKET


The Big Bash semi-finals provided plenty of thrills, particularly the Perth v Melbourne Stars semi, and that game highlighted what can happen when the game has ‘live’ betting. Weather was a key factor in the fluctuations, but that was always going to be the case. The Scorchers touched $6.00 at one stage, got in to $1.10, then had to endure a harrowing last over where everything went their way before they won on the last ball of the night.

So now it is down to two teams, and Perth host Brisbane on Saturday night. The Heat have found some form at the right time as they were all but out of it two weeks ago, and have opened the $2.20 outsider with Perth at $1.67. Don’t be put off by the prices if you like the Heat as they can travel, and outsiders have won more than 50% of the matches this season. Luke Pomersbach has dominated the last two times Brisbane have played, but Perth have also been helped by the dominant form of Shaun Marsh. TattsBet will be betting live throughout the final again.

The Gabba will be the venue for the third ODI between Australia and Sri Lanka on Friday, and after a quiet start to proceedings after betting opened last Sunday, we are beginning to see money for the Aussies. The Australian selectors have seen fit to name a better side than we saw in game two, and punters have reacted, backing them from an opening $1.45 into $1.42. David Warner has made big scores at the Gabba in the 50 over form of the game, and it appears as though his naming in the side was the catalyst for the betting move. There will also be live betting throughout this match, including a running live book on the top runs scorers for each team.


GOLF


Rory McIlroy makes his first appearance for 2013 in Abu Dhabi this week, and he is the $5.50 favourite in a terrific field. Tiger Woods is second pick at $8.00 ahead of Martin Kaymer ($10), and Justin Rose is next in line at $17. Most of the field under $51 have attracted support, probably due to the fact that it is a new season and most are resuming. The bigger money has been for McIlroy, Rose, Jason Dufner ($26) and Henrik Stenson, but a look at the records in Abu Dhabi suggest there are a few chances. McIlroy has finished second here the last 2 years and has four top 5 finishes from his last four visits, so the conditions won’t worry him. Martin Kaymer found some form at the end of 2012 after having a poor year, but the German has won this event three times (2008,2010 and 2011) while Paul Casey is another multiple winner having won in 2007 and 2009. Casey is a $31 shot this year but hasn’t been backed to the extent of most others well up in the betting.

The Humana Challenge is the PGA Tour event this week, and Brandt Snedeker is the $16 favourite in a wide open event.


Most would know this event by its old name, the Bob Hope Classic, and it used to be conducted over 5 rounds, and celebrities featured prominently in the pro-am. Mark Wilson is the defending champion, but is well down in the market at $67 after failing to make the cut last week. The recent history reveals plenty of upset winners, and punters have gone far and wide in search of the winner. Matt Kuchar ($17), Harris English ($34), Carl Pettersson ($34), Pat Perez ($41) and Jeff Overton ($51) have attracted most support outside of Snedeker, who looks hard to beat on a course that suits those who excel with the putter. There will be 11 Aussies in the field and Geoff Ogilvy and John Senden are the co-$5.25 favourites to be the ‘Top Aussie’.


NBL

After losing eight in a row, Adelaide finally found its way back in to the winners’ circle last weekend after an 18-point pummelling of the Sydney Kings last weekend. The 36ers will need to break another streak this round when they take on bogey team New Zealand in TEN’s live Sunday game. The Breakers have won the past 13 meetings between the sides, including their last meeting in Adelaide at the end of 2012 when the home side could muster just five points in the final term in a 71-66 defeat. The Breakers have won five on the bounce and the last four of those have been on the road. Sixers big man Daniel Johnson struggled mightily in the second half of that match as his side faded away, but he seems to be a barometer of their success, scoring a team-high 24 in the win over Sydney after being down on form throughout the losing streak. If the Kiwis can break even against Johnson and twin tower Luke Schenscher in the battle in the middle, then the class of point guard Cedric Jackson will probably get them over the line in a close one.


AFL

As the start of the Aussie footy season closes in on us, we are beginning to see a stream of bets in most ‘futures’ markets. Hawthorn remain the $4.00 favourite to avenge last year’s loss, with Sydney, the 2012 winner, next in line at $7.00. Both are popular, but in the last couple of weeks TattsBet has taken bets of $2000 for Collingwood ($9.00), $1600 for Adelaide ($10) and punters continue to chip away at Essendon, now $15 after opening at $17. GWS are a red-hot $1.33 chance to run last, but surprisingly the Western Bulldogs command most attention at $9.00, while Hawthorn ($3.25) and the West Coast ($6.00) are the standouts in Minor Premiership betting. Hawthorn are also the opening $3.75 favourite to win the NAB Cup ahead of Sydney ($6.00) and the Eagles ($7.00), but as we know the markets will fluctuate wildly on this as it becomes clearer which teams will be focussing on it more than others.

RUGBY LEAGUE


Michael Jennings has signed a four-year deal with the Roosters, and while that saw a price change ($17-$15), the news didn’t really spark a rush of bets. In fact we only took a couple of small bets at the new price, but the Roosters do look one of the better chances in 2013 with their new look roster.


Melbourne Storm remain the $5.50 favourites after touching $6.00 a few weeks ago. The Storm are always popular, and $6000 worth of bets in that time was enough to warrant a price change. Wests Tigers have lost a heap of players, but they have been backed, including 2 bets of $1000 at $21 and another bet of $600 at $17, while Brisbane are now into $13 after opening at $17. The Broncos drew a bet of $3000 to make the final 8 last week at $1.85, but that bet has been overshadowed by a $5000 wager for the Titans at $3.25 and another bet of $5000 for the Bulldogs at $1.18.

BOXING


The much anticipated rematch between Daniel Geale and Anthony Mundine is still a fortnight away, but judging by the level of interest, this will be one of the bigger betting bouts held in this country.

Mundine has attracted three times as many bets than Geale at this stage, but the bigger money is for Geale who has firmed from an opening $1.40 into $1.27. Heading up the list of bets is a $10,000 wager at $1.36, and that support has continued down to his current price. Mundine defeated Geale in a controversial decision the only time the pair met, and it is rare for ‘The Man’ to be an outsider in a fight, so naturally there is plenty of support for him as well. The exotic markets will be available next week.

GREYHOUNDS


Tasmanian stayer Bell Haven is the $1.70 favourite to win the Summer Plate at Wentworth Park on Saturday night, and definitely looks the one to beat after coming up with Box 1. Victorian Irma Bale finally broke her Wenty Mark maiden leading all the way in her heat and is the second elect at $3.80. There is a lot of pace in this race, and if there is any trouble up front, then Hotwire $10) might be the one after having no luck at all in the heats.

The Paws of Thunder will be the other feature on Saturday night that TattsBet will be offering fixed odds for, and while the field is dominated by Victorians (5 finalists), the box draw hasn’t done the Southerners too many favours and Cavendish Flyer is the $3.80 favourite after coming up with box 1. Youngster Veyron Bale was the fastest heat winner but has drawn in the middle of the field and is surrounded by good beginners. The run to the first will decide the race, and although Fully Advanced ($4.40) won his heat as a $31 outsider, he is now in the care of master trainer Graeme Bate, and he showed his best form in that heat win. Fully Advanced has the necessary pace to lead, and will prove hard to run down if he can lead.