TattsBet News 20th September

AFL

The top 4 sides have made it through to the preliminary finals, and on the back of both favourites winning last week, punters think the dose will be repeated this week.

Sydney play Collingwood at ANZ Stadium in Sydney on Friday night, and while all the stats point towards a Collingwood win, punters see it differently. Collingwood have won 11 in a row against the Swans, including the last 7 at ANZ, but they come off a brutal match against the Eagles, and have some injury concerns. The betting opened with the Swans at $1.65 and Collingwood at $2.25, but the question mark hovering over the availability of Dawes and Didak has seen Sydney’s price come in to $1.62. There is also money for the Swans at -7.5, and a really good push for them at $2.15 in the 1-39 market. Being a final, and at a ground not conducive to big scores, we have also seen money for the ‘draw’ in the margins options at $51.

Hawthorn v Adelaide is shaping as the biggest betting final to date, and Crows supporters think they can spring a major upset. Adelaide have eased slightly from $4.75 out to $5.50, but we have taken 5 times as many bets for them as we have for Hawthorn. They also had a tough match last week, and Hawthorn have a couple coming back, so deserve to be the $1.15 quote they are. They are naturally popular through multi’s, and while the biggest bet to date has only been $4000, we are expecting some big ones to come through leading up to the game. For the record, Hawthorn beat Adelaide by 56 points at their only meeting this year.

The Hawks are now $1.50 to win the flag, and assuming they win this week, they will be red hot favourites in the Grand Final no matter who they play. TattsBet took a bet of $18,000 for Hawthorn on Sunday night at $1.55. They have also met with heavy support through the AFL/NRL Premiership Doubles with the most popular combinations being with Melbourne and Canterbury.

Monday night will see the Brownlow Medal awarded, and TattsBet will be betting live throughout the medal count. It is an intriguing event this year as the first three in the betting, Gary Ablett ($4.25), Trent Cotchin ($4.50) and Jobe Watson ($5.25) all played for sides who didn’t make the finals. The last player to do that was Shane Crawford, but Crawford was a long odds on favourite when he won, and this year’s Brownlow is the most open ever. Sam Mitchell has come in from $17 to $9 since the season ended, and he has easily been the best backed player since the last votes were locked away. The Adelaide duo of Dangerfield and Thompson, both $8, are still being backed by Crows fans, while Sydney’s Josh Kennedy is another who flew under the radar for most of the year, but is popular at $17.

TattsBet will also be covering this week’s Grand Finals in the TSL, the WAFL and VFL. Burnie were backed at $11 to win the TSL flag before the season started, and go in to Saturday’s GF as $1.22 pops, with Launceston at $4.00. Burnie defeated Launceston on three of the four occasions they met this year, but the telling win was by 45 points in the second semi- final. Claremont are warm favourites to win the WAFL premiership, while Port Melbourne are a similar quote to win back to back VFL flags. 

RUGBY LEAGUE 

Just like in the AFL, the top four NRL sides have made it through to the preliminary finals, and both favourites won last week. That has given punters an air of confidence as the two fav’s this week, Melbourne and Canterbury, have been heavily backed to play off next week.

There is no love lost between Melbourne and Manly, and everybody is looking forward to their clash on Friday night. The Storm opened at $1.65, but that was quickly snapped up, and by Thursday they had firmed to $1.58. Melbourne have shown a return to form after a slump, and Manly have some injury worries after last week’s controversial win against North Queensland.

Canterbury are the favourites to win the competition leading into the weekend’s matches, and they have been heavily backed to end the fairy tale for Souths. The opening quote of $1.50 for the Bulldogs disappeared quickly as did the line of -5.5, and judging by what we have seen in the early part of the week, they can only get shorter. They have been backed to win by big margins, including an early bet of $3500 for 13+ at $3.00, and while all of the talk is about how many Souths fans will flood the ground on Saturday, it seems as though they aren’t overly confident of coming away with a win.

The QLD Cup final will be a stand- alone game on Sunday afternoon at Suncorp Stadium between Redcliffe and Wynnum Manly, and while the games played during the season saw one win to each from their two meetings, Redcliffe are expected to win on Sunday. After opening at $1.45 on Monday, several four figure bets saw that price cut to $1.42, with Wynnum Manly out to $2.85. The opening line of -6.5 has also moved to -7.5, and bets are coming for that option as well, so clearly punters think that Wynnum Manly will be suffering from the side effects of a brutal first have against Tweed Heads last week. TattsBet will be betting live throughout the final.

Also….

Just a reminder that TattsBet will be betting live during most of the T/20 World Cup matches. The NBL Blitz will be played this weekend, so there will be price changes to the title betting as we near the first game of the season the week after next, and the A League Round 1 matches are open for business. 

GOLF

Thirty of the world’s best golfers will be in action in the Tour Championship this week, and while the in-form Rory McIlroy is the $5.50 favourite with TattsBet, there have been plenty backed to beat him. Tiger Woods ($6.50) has been the best backed player of the top half a dozen in the market, and is a two time winner in 1999 and 2007. The win in 2007 was the first time that the East Lake Golf Club had been the permanent fixture for the Tour Championship, and of course Tiger wasn’t in the field in 2010 and 2011 when he had injuries and drama’s in his life. Tiger has been struggling in the big ones this year, but has won three of his last ten starts in ‘non Majors’.

Phil Mickelson ($13) has shown a return to form recently and punters have been eager to be on him, as well as Adam Scott ($15) who won the Tour Championship in 2006, and Jason Dufner ($26), who continues to be backed every week but rarely wins. Mickelson won this event in 2000 and 2009, so it will be interesting to see if he can continue on with his recent form. Scott tied for 6th last year, and has had problems closing out events, always thereabouts but failing to win. He will be joined in the field by John Senden, the only one of the ‘bolters’ at $67. Senden made the field last year, finishing well back in 25th position, and is the $2.70 outsider to be ‘Top Aussie’, with Scott at $1.44. 

RUGBY UNION 

Argentina showed how much they have improved with their two match series in New Zealand and Australia, and although beaten in both matches, they were right in the mix until the last 10 minutes. We made mention last week that the Puma’s had been well backed to beat the Wallabies ($5.10 into $4.20), and there was any amount of money for them with 11.5, then 10.5 points start. The game between New Zealand and South Africa saw all of the big bets placed on the All Blacks to win ($1.10), but there was just as much put down on them covering the line of -15 points, and those punters fell short when NZ won 21-11.

The next two games are a little over a week away, but have been opened for betting with TattsBet. South Africa host Australia in Pretoria, a venue where the Wallabies have never won in five attempts. To be fair those five matches go back to 1963 with the last of those in 2010, but it is extremely hard to win at altitude, and that is what faces the Wallabies. South Africa have opened at $1.55 with Australia at $2.40.

Argentina will be at home in Buenos Aires when they play New Zealand on Sunday week, and on the form they displayed recently, they must be some hope of causing an upset. The Puma’s played out a 16-16 draw with South Africa before coming across to this part of the world, but have never beaten NZ in Argentina. The first match between the two countries in Argentina was a draw in 1985, and the last time they met there was back in 2006, which saw another win to the All Blacks. We do rate Argentina a big chance of an upset even though the opening quote is $4.50, with New Zealand at $1.18. 

V8 SUPERCARS 

Craig Lowndes and Warren Luff won the Sandown 500 last Sunday, and that victory means that Car 888 will be mighty hard to beat at Bathurst. Lowndes has dominated the endure races the last couple of years, but that was with Mark Skaiffe, however he has found an able replacement in Luff. Car 888 went into the race as the equal favourite at $4.00 along with Car 9 (Van Gisbergen/ Youlden), but most of the money wagered was for the winner as well as Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) and Car 5, driven by Mark Winterbottom and Steve Richards, with both of those starting $8.50.

The Lowndes/Luff combo has been elevated to $3.50 equal favourite for Bathurst (opened $4.50) on the back of that win, but nearly all of the cars under $26 have met with good support. Car 2 (Tander/Percat) has been the most popular of those at $9.00 after some impressive times at Sandown in qualifying before finishing fourth. The big race will be run on Sunday October 7th, and there will be a host of exotic betting options opening in the coming week.

NASCAR

Brad Keselowski won the Sprint Championship race in Chicago last weekend, and regular listeners to the Radio TAB morning sports show were the big winners. Regular motoring expert Cam Partington tipped Keselowski to listeners on Friday morning, and the ‘Hour of Power’ special at $17 was quickly snapped up. Keselowski eventually started at $12.00 and defeated Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne.

The NASCAR race this week is the Sylvania 300 which will be held at Loudon, New Hampshire. Denny Hamlin is the opening $5.50 favourite ahead of Kahne ($5.50), Johnson ($6.50) and Keselowski at $8.50. Kahne has been in good form and did win at the track earlier in the year. Hamlin has also had a good season but was displaced as title favourite after last week’s race by Johnson, who is now $3.00 to add another title to his belt. 

FORMULA 1 

Aside from Monaco, the Singapore GP is one of the most anticipated races on the calendar each year, and Lewis Hamilton is the $3.35 favourite to win there this week. The race in Singapore is held around the streets, and is a night race under some spectacular lighting. Hamilton won here back in 2009, and was an impressive winner last start in Monza. There has been money for him as well as second elect Fernando Alonso ($5.00), with Alonso having a good recent record in Singapore with two wins (2008 and 2010) and a third in 2009. The only other driver to attract good early support has been Sebastien Vettel at $6.00. Vettel is going for back to back wins at Singapore, and while the Red Bulls haven’t dominated this year, it is worth noting that the last two races (Spa, Monza) were the only two races where the maximum downforce levels were not required, so that took away the balance of power from the aero-efficient Red Bulls. Expect some vast improvement this week!

SUPERBIKES

With only two rounds of the Superbikes to go, the betting for the title is still an intriguing battle. Max Biaggi heads the points table on 318 points, and is the $1.60 favourite, but Marco Melandri is in close attendance (308.5 pts) and is $2.30. Tom Sykes is a further 17 points adrift and is at $15, but he would need a lot of things to go his way if he is to win.

The second last round will be on this weekend in Portimeo, Portugal, and on the back of a win in the first race in Germany recently, Biaggi has been installed as the $2.75 favourite to win race 1. The veteran has from around the course having won both races back in 2010, but that year it was the second event for the season, whereas this year it is at the tail end. Melandri’s has had trouble with consistency this year, but he did win race 2 at this course in 2011 with the other race going to Carlos Checa. Melandri is $5.50 in the first race this week, ahead of Tom Sykes at $6.00, while Checa must be given a strong chance at $6.50.

NOTABLE BETS

$18,000 at $1.55 Hawthorn to win AFL Premiership (into $1.50)

English Premier League - Multi of the week
$50 at 620/1 won $31,000

Aston Villa HT/FT vs Swansea $3.80
Fulham HT/FT vs West Brom $3.00
Tottenham HT/FT v Reading $3.20
Draw in Norwich vs West Ham $3.30
Draw in Sunderland vs Liverpool $3.25
Man Utd to win vs Wigan $1.22
Arsenal to win vs Southampton $1.30