TattsBet News 5th July

RUGBY LEAGUE

State of Origin is done with for another year, and what an exciting finale we had. In a massive betting game, Tattsbet came out on the right side of the ledger after there was a concerted push for NSW to end the winning run, but they came up short. Most of the major betting options on the game went the way of the favourite options, and there were some hefty bets landed. These included $10,000 on Queensland 1-12 at $2.65, and several bets for the same amount on a Queensland win in the head to head. The Blues were backed from $2.40 into $2.25 in the last week, and there were also plenty of winners when Brett Morris ($13.00-$11.00) was the first try scorer of the match. Jonathon Thurston started $5.00 equal favourite with Cameron Smith for the Man of the Match, so punters were on target there as well. One punter in particular would not have enjoyed the last 5 minutes of the match after placing $4000 on a draw in normal time at $17.00. Cooper Cronk put paid to the $64,000 windfall with 5 to go, and the Blues only had one opportunity to draw level and couldn’t get the job done.

Now the trick is to try and work out what damage has been done to players who are scheduled to play in the upcoming round. Betting was open on Wednesday, was closed during the game, and reopened on Thursday. There was little or no business on Wednesday, and that is understandable, but once it becomes clear who will back up, then we should see plenty of betting. Robbie Farah took a knock to the head but is expected to play on Friday night against the Bulldogs, but if he was to be ruled out then the Tigers ($2.40) would become friendless in the betting. Canterbury are flying at the moment, and are now into $6.50 to win the title behind the Storm and Manly.

Prior to last weekend’s matches a client placed $10,000 on the Warriors for the final 8 at $1.80, and after a big win over the Cowboys are now $1.57 to make it. They out paid to the Gold Coast early in the season, but have to travel to Skilled Stadium on Saturday night to take on a rejuvenated Titans side. There has been a lot to like about the Titans, and it did take the Warriors a long time to put the Cowboys away last week, and punters have reacted with the early money being for the Titans at $2.25.

AFL

The Kangaroos let punters down last week when they were the only one of the nine AFL favourites to be beaten, and based on their improved form they must be a show of beating the West Coast this week.

The Eagles had a big win over the Suns, but tackle the Roos in Hobart on Saturday afternoon, and after big wins over Adelaide and St Kilda, the Kangaroos are well in the betting at $2.70. The Eagles are $1.45, but there hasn’t been the level of interest shown in them that we have become accustomed to. The biggest bet in the first three days of betting was only $2000, and less than $100 has been placed on them conceding 15.5 points. It seems like the public also see this as a danger game.

Cast your mind back to Round 3. Carlton thump Collingwood by 10 goals, Nathan Buckley is under the pump, and two weeks later the Blues are equal flag favourites. Now fast forward to this week, the Pies are flag favs, the Blues are $3.00 to make the finals, and a massive $4.30 to beat Collingwood on Friday night. It is hard to believe the turnaround in fortunes for these two sides, but given the history between the two, we are giving Carlton a chance of an upset, or at least of staying within the line of 30.5 points. There has been no interest in the Blues, and Collingwood have been anchored in nearly every AFL multi for the week, so it would be very timely if the Blues could return to form.

Flag betting has settled down over the last couple of weeks with Collingwood leading the way at $3.50 ahead of Hawthorn ($3.75), West Coast ($6.00) and Essendon and Sydney both at $9.00.

Jobe Watson is now into $3.00 to win the Brownlow, and it is hard to believe that he wouldn’t have a handy lead at this stage. As we know however, a lot can happen as was the case with Scott Pendlebury who is now out to $9.00 after breaking a bone in his leg. Adelaide’s Scott Thompson has been in the best players for the Crows nearly every week, and is also $9.00 along with Dane Swan.

RUGBY UNION

With only two weeks of the normal season to go, spots for the Super Rugby finals are still up for grabs.

The Crusaders were beaten again last week but are still well in the betting to land the major prize at $3.75, just behind the Stormers ($3.50) and ahead of the Chiefs at $4.00. The Chiefs host the Crusaders in a blockbuster on Friday night, and the home side have been backed from $2.00 into $1.95, with the Crusaders easing slightly to $1.85. This is shaping as a fantastic betting game with bets split down the middle, and a win to the Chiefs will more than likely mean that the Crusaders will have to win all their finals away from home. A win to the Chiefs would see them grab an all important top 2 finish, so there is a lot at stake.

The Waratahs continue to cop it in the Sydney press, and they will be at home to the Brumbies on Saturday night. Before the season started, nobody rated the Brumbies at all, and much was promised from the Waratahs. Again they haven’t delivered, but will be keen to show what they are capable of on Saturday night. Tattsbet has opened both sides at $1.90.

The Lions have never played the Rebels before, and collectively have lost 18 of their last 21 matches, but the Lions have been one of the best backed sides this week. They did show improvement when going down by 10 points to the Stormers last week, and that was after replacing coach John Mitchell. The Rebels have lost Beale and O’Connor but have played well without them before. The Lions opened at $1.33 and -7.0, but both options were quickly snapped up.

TENNIS

The winner of the women’s Wimbledon semi- final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka is assured of starting a warm favourite in the final, and while Williams is the $1.57 favourite, most of the bets have come for Azarenka at $2.35. Both have struggled at different stages during Wimbledon, but both have the game on grass to put away whoever progresses from the other semi. In that match Angelique Kerber is $1.70 with Agnieska Radwanska at $2.10, but this match hasn’t reached the levels of the other. Williams is $2.10 to take the major prize, with Azarenka at $3.00, then a hefty gap to Kerber ($5.25) and Radwanska ($7.00).

The mens semi-finals will be on Friday night, and it is only Rafael Nadal who will be missing from the first five in betting before the tournament began. The ageless Roger Federer is $3.00 to beat Novak Djokovic ($1.38), and it seems as though punters have written off Federer after he had back problems early in the week. All of the money is for Novak, in particular through multi’s with Andy Murray in the other semi. Murray is $1.42 to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and while his form says that should happen, it is still Andy Murray, it is still a big match, and it is in front of his ‘home’ crowd…unless of course he loses!

GOLF

It is rare for a defending champion in any golf event to be written off, but that is the case this week in the Open de France. Frenchman Thomas Levet won last year, but that lead to some bizarre events. Levet broke his leg when he jumped into a greenside lake after winning last year, then broke his ribs when he fell over at the Volvo Golf Championship after coming back. Subsequent to that fall, Levet has missed every cut, so he finds himself a 200/1 chance this week. Tournament favourite is Lee Westwood ($7.50) who returns to the European Tour after winning the Swedish Open last month, and he has been best backed in early betting. Martin Kaymer is another well in the betting at $15.00, and while he did defeat Westwood in a playoff here in 2009, he also holds the course record (62) from that same event. He definitely looks the one to beat!

Tiger Woods found the winners circle in the AT&T National last week, and is $4.75 to repeat the does this week in the Greenbrier Classic. This event has only been held twice before, with the winners being Scott Stallings last year, and Stuart Appleby in 2009. Appleby made headlines when he won after producing a final round 59, but most of the holes have undergone changes as a result of that. It would be fair to say that the field this year is much stronger than either of those events, and with Woods a starter, that has seen really good interest. Second pick is Webb Simpson at $17.00, then we have Dustin Johnson ($21.00), Phil Mickelson and Steve Stricker, both at $23.00. Stallings and Appleby are both $126.00 and have attracted a handful of small bets, while Marc Leishman is the shortest of the Aussie contingent at $61.00.

THE GAMES

The London Games are not far away, so it is time to have a look at what Tattsbet will offer. Betting will be available to win every gold medal. Many of those are already open, and the rest will come in the next two weeks as there is still qualifying going on with different sports. Several sports will have betting available on individual games, including soccer,basketball and hockey. There will also be exotics available on selected events including head to heads once final fields are known.

Of the events already open, the big talking point has been the men’s 100m in the athletics after the Jamaican qualifying sessions last weekend. Yohan Blake was second pick at $5.50 to win the gold medal in London before that run, but after he put Usain Bolt away quite easily, his price crashed into $3.25. On what we saw in that run, perhaps that price is still over the odds, but we had already taken a lot of money for Bolt at $1.33, especially through multi’s. The price for Bolt has eased out to $3.25, and that duo completely dominate the market. Blake then came out and won again in the 200m, and Bolt appeared to pull up with a hamstring strain. Foxing or not? For the time being, the fastest man in the world is not the fastest man in Jamaica, but we will see what happens on the big stage.

V8’S

Two races of 200km confront the V8 Supercar drivers in Townsville this week, and the betting is wide open. Mark Winterbottom, Jamie Whincup and Will Davison share favouritism at $3.75, then it is Craig Lowndes ($5.50) and Garth Tander at $13.00. This is the third year in a row that Townsville will host these races, and they have another drawcard this year with Jaques Villeneuve competing. The 1997 World Driving Champion is 250/1 in the Tattsbet market to win Race 1, but having a name like that competing can only lift the profile of the event. Villeneuve raced in the NASCAR series in the USA two weeks ago, and was lambasted by other drivers after that race for causing an accident, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the street circuit this week. Punters don’t know where to look in Race 1 as all of the drivers mentioned earlier have met with support, particularly Tander. He does have good form in Townsville having won a race last year (the other went to Whincup), and was placed in both races in 2010. Whincup won in 2010 as did Winterbottom, so clearly those results, as well as the results of races this season should ensure a terrific weekend ahead.

FORMULA ONE

Fernando Alonso now heads the points tally in the Drivers Championship (111pts), and while he is favourite at $2.65 to win the title, he has been ignored in betting to win this week’s British GP. Alonso did win last start in Valencia, but was a $41.00 chance after drawing well back on the grid. Having said that, he has been the most consistent driver this season and does look value at $5.50. Alonso is also the defending champion after beating Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber last year, but a look back at previous results shows us that no single driver has dominated at Silverstone with the previous winners being Webber (2010), Vettel (2009), Lewis Hamilton (2008) and Kimi Raikkonen back in 2007 when he was a force with Ferrari. Vettel is the $3.20 favourite with Tattsbet this week, and while he has met with solid support, we are also seeing bets role in for Hamilton at $4.50, Raikkonen ($11.00) and Webber at $13.00.

MOTO GP

Casey Stoner bounced back into the winners circle last week in Assen, and it was amazing that punters took a set against him even though he qualified fastest. Stoner went in as a $3.25 chance, with Jorge Lorenzo odds on at $1.90, but the day belonged to Stoner. That duo have won the seven races held so far this year, so it is no surprise to see them at the head of betting this week in Germany. Both have been backed, with Lorenzo the opening favourite at $2.25 and Stoner at $2.70, but this is one course where third pick Dani Pedrosa also has form. Pedrosa was a winner back in 2010 after being placed the previous two years, but did finish third behind Lorenzo and Stoner last year.

NASCAR

Daytona will hold the Coke Zero 400 this week, and it is a night race. Brad Keselowski won the NASCAR race last week, and is $13.00 second pick behind Jimmie Johnson ($10.00) this week. Championship points leader Matt Kenseth is also on the $13.00 line of betting along with a host of others, and Kenseth was runner up to roughie David Ragan in the corresponding race last season. The early betting has been slanted towards Jimmie Johnson, but the open market has seen interest spread across several drivers.