By Tatts Staff
- July 19, 2012 11:25AM
The Bulldogs are flying and Manly have been stuttering, and Friday night’s match between this duo has revealed an interesting betting trend.
Manly opened favourites at $1.60 after the sides were announced, but the push all week has been for the Bulldogs. After opening at $2.35, the Bulldogs were into $2.25 by Thursday morning, and the ratio of bets in their favour was staggering at 10-1. The largest of the bets was $4000, but the support has been relentless, and they seem certain to start shorter. The Bulldogs are currently at $4.50 to win the title (Storm $4.25), but a win over the Sea Eagles will surely see that price cut.
Brisbane thrashed the Titans 26-0 in round 8, but since then the Broncos have a higher injury toll, and the Titans have found some form, even though they have also had injury concerns. Brisbane have firmed marginally from $1.48 into $1.47 to beat the Gold Coast ($2.70), but clearly their fans see this as a real danger game as the level of support that we are accustomed to for Brisbane just isn’t there this week.
The talk in the latter part of this week is that Jarryd Hayne may make a surprise return for Parramatta against Melbourne this week, and while the form of the Eels has been abysmal this year, it is a good time to be playing Melbourne. The Storm have lost 3 in a row and are struggling post Origin, and the Eels have shown flashes of brilliance in some matches. Even without Hayne we rate them a chance of getting inside the line of 12.5 points start ($1.90), and if he was to be a late inclusion, then that would come in significantly.
The Monday night match is a ‘must win’ for both North Queensland and Wests Tigers, and it is shaping as one of the best betting Monday night games for the year. The betting hasn’t moved in the first 24 hours of trading with the Cowboys at $1.60 and the Tigers at $2.35, with money coming both ways. Tattsbet has a leaning to the home side with Jonathon Thurston back in form, and although the Tigers did beat Penrith last week, it was another unimpressive win.
Every week the AFL seems to get more difficult to predict, and the upcoming round is one of the hardest of this season. Based on the opening prices on Monday, all 8 favourites (excluding Fremantle) to win was a little over $34.00 for a $1 outlay, and that is big odds as far as AFL is concerned.
The round will see the top 8 sides all play each other, so a lot of questions will be answered come Sunday night. With all key positions up for grabs it has been noticeable that flag betting has been quiet this week, and that is understandable. Hawthorn head the list at $3.50 ahead of Collingwood ($4.00), Sydney ($5.00), the Eagles ($7.00) and Adelaide at $8.00, but a lot of those prices will change dramatically after the weekend.
The Friday night clash between Essendon and Geelong has been a good betting battle with an early push for Geelong. The Cats opened at $2.00, but that didn’t last long as they firmed into $1.95, with Essendon out to $1.85. Collingwood were comprehensively beaten by Hawthorn in round 1, but they look like they might start favourites against the Hawks at the MCG on Saturday. The Magpies opened at $2.05 on Monday, but by Thursday were in to $1.90 equal favourites. There was some talk that Buddy Franklin may make a surprise return for Hawthorn, and that has seen some spirited betting for the Hawks at $1.90, but if Franklin doesn’t line up, then it looks on the cards that Collinwood will start favourites.
The Gold Coast still haven’t won at home, but based on their win over Richmond last week, that elusive win may not be far away. There has been solid support for the Suns to break that duck against Brisbane this week, and they have firmed from an opening $3.60 onto $3.30. The line has been set at 23.5 points, and again the money has been for the Suns.
Before last loss to the Suns last week there would not have been much in the betting between Richmond and North Melbourne this week. It is amazing what a round of results can do to prices as Richmond opened at $2.30 to beat the Kangaroos ($1.60) this week, even though it is at the MCG, but punters have gone the way of value with plenty coming for Richmond to win as well as cover a line of 7.5 points start. The biggest of those bets was only $3000, but it is a sign that most think this has all the earmarks of an upset.
The Stormers and the Chiefs get the weekend off as the Super Rugby finals get under way, and one punter thinks that the trophy will be heading west. This week he placed $8500 on the Stormers to win the title at $3.00, but there is massive interest in the main chances left. The Chiefs touched $4.00 and attracted a bet of $6500, while the Crusaders had a bet of $10,000 placed on them at $3.75. Those bets have meant that the Reds have eased slightly from $6.50 to $7.00, while the Sharks ($17.00) and the Bulls ($19.00) are basically given very little chance. Those two outsiders have to play away from home this week, with the Bulls facing the most daunting task, up against the Crusaders in Christchurch. The Bulls had a victory (32-30) over the Crusaders in round 7, but the Kiwi side were missing several players throughout the season, and would have had their eye on this game when they let eased off the gas against the Force last week. The Crusaders have opened at $1.19 or -10.5 in this game, and all of the early action is for the home side, particularly through multi’s.
Saturday’s other match will see the Reds host the Sharks, and while all the headlines have been about Quade Cooper’s suspension for this match, it has gone unnoticed that the Sharks also have their share of problems. They have improved a lot since the break, and that coincided with Francois Steyn coming back to play, but he is out this week, along with Pat Lambie and lock Pieter-Steph du Toit. The Sharks trailed the Cheetahs 15-6 at half time last week before winning 34-15 in a ‘must win’ match, and now have to travel to Queensland. That more than balances up the loss of Cooper in our opinion, and for that reason the Reds have been installed as $1.42 pops, with the Sharks at $2.85. The line has been set at 5.5 points, and like the Crusaders game, the early money is for the favourites to win, and cover the line. Live betting will be available on both games.
With a little over a week to go before the start of the 2012 London Games, we are beginning to see bets come in a wide range of events.
There are differing views on how Australia will perform at the games, and punters think that the Aussies will win less than 13 Gold as it has been backed from $1.90 into $1.72. While the overall medal market is a little bit different as it takes in all medals, one punter has placed $7000 on Australia to get more than 36.5 medals, with that market now being on under/over 37.5 medals.
Betting on ‘Most Gold’ for the games has been frantic with a big betting battle going on between the USA and China. The current prices are $1.75 USA and $1.95 for China, but China has come in from $2.50. Some of the bigger bets include $2000 ($2.50) and $4000 ($2.00) for China, while there has been a $3000 wager for the USA at the current price of $1.75.
The loss by Sally Pearson last weekend has seen her price ease from $1.30 to $1.45 for the women’s 100m hurdles, with the big mover being Kellie Wells. The American was victorious over Sally in that race, and that has seen her price cut from $13.00 to $4.75 second elect.
Yohan Blake showed he was on track with another impressive victory in Lucerne earlier this week, and he remains a solid $2.75 second favourite to win the men’s 100m final. Usain Bolt has said this week that he will be fine for the Games, but there haven’t been too many takers for him at $1.57, and there probably won’t be until he is a confirmed starter.
Sebastian Vettel is the opening $3.20 with Tattsbet to win this week’s German F1, but while Vettel has been placed in this race three of the last four German F1’s, (fourth last year), he is yet to win. Vettel still only has one win this year, and he has been shunned in early betting, whereas his Red Bull team mate, Mark Webber ($6.00) has been easily the best backed. Webber has form in Germany as this is the track where he recorded his first win back in 2009, and finished third last year behind Lewis Hamilton. There has also been a good early push for Hamilton at $6.00 and Michael Schumacher at $19.00. Schumacher has shown improved form over the last few races, and of course the German would love to win in front of his home crowd. He had a fabulous record in this race when he was dominating the sport, winning in 2002,2004 and 2006, so it is easy to understand why punters would want to be on him this week.
Fernando Alonso is the $4.75 second pick to win this week, and remains the $3.00 favourite to win the Driver’s Championship ahead of Vettel ($3.00), with Webber and Hamilton next in line at $5.50.
Jorge Lorenzo is on track to win the motoGP Championship this year after a comprehensive win in Italy last weekend. Lorenzo now has a lead of 19 points over Dani Pedrosa, and is $1.25 to win, with Pedrosa at $8.00. Casey Stoner finished down the track in Germany in 8th position, but is still the second favourite in title betting at $5.50.
Like Lorenzo, Max Biaggi is on the verge of having a stranglehold on the Superbikes title, and is $1.45 to win that title ahead of this week’s races in the Czech Republic. Marco Melandri is the second favourite at $4.50 ahead of Carlos Checa at $8.00.
Brno will host the Superbikes this week, and both Biaggi and Melandri come here after winning a race each in Aragon. Ironically they also won a race each at this meeting last year, with Biaggi winning one race in 2010 and 2009 as well. That form line will see Biaggi open as favourite to win race 1 this week ahead of Melandri, Checa and Jonathon Rea, who also won here in 2010.
The ‘Your Hero’s Name Here 400’ is the NASCAR event this week, and it will be held in Indianapolis.
As is always the case with these races, the betting is wide open, and Jimmie Johnson is the opening favourite at $7.00 ahead of Tony Stewart ($8.00), Denny Hemlin ($9.00) and Jeff Gordon ($9.00). Johnson and Stewart head the title betting at $3.50 and $4.50 respectively, and a look back over the records shows that both drivers have won this race twice, Johnson in 2006 and 2008, and Stewart in 2005 and 2007.
The unseasonable weather in England has seen the draw shorten dramatically in the First Test at The Oval between England and South Africa, and that option is now $2.40 after opening at $2.75. Early in the week the draw did get as short as $2.10, but a better weather report from the UK has seen the price drift out. That is still very short for a draw the way sides play these days, and of course there is always the option for extra time to be added, but punters are happy to stick with it. This is a ‘best of three’ series, and England are $2.00 to win the series ahead of South Africa ($3.25) and the ‘Drawn Series’ at $3.65, but all of the money for the series has been on the home side. England have won their last 7 tests series’ in a row at home, but the last team to win a series was South Africa, back in 2008. The Test and One Day Series will be shown on Fox, so we are expecting a lot of interest in the games after England humbled Australia 4-0 in the recent One Day series.
Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic have made their way into the ANZ Championship final to take on the Melbourne Vixens, but they have had to do it the hard way.
When title betting first opened before the season started, the Magic were second pick’s behind the QLD Firebirds, but got off to a horror start. Their price drifted out to $11.00 at one stage, but a winning streak of 11 in a row now has them in Sunday’s final against the Vixens. The Magic are the only side to make the finals every year since the competition started 5 years ago, but no side has won the preliminary final and then gone on to win the final.
That points towards a Vixens win, and with the advantage of a week off, and the fact that the Magic had to come from behind and win in overtime against the Mystics, the Vixens have been installed as $1.45 favourites. The early signs in betting suggest that they might even start a little shorter than that, and there has been little interest in the Magic at $2.75. The handicap line has been set at -4.5, and again the early money is for the Vixens.
$10,000 at $3.75 on the Crusaders to win Super Rugby 2012
$8,500 at $3 on the Stormers to win Super Rugby 2012
$6,500 at $4 on the Chiefs to win Super rugby 2012
$7,000 at $1.72 on Australia more than 36.5 medals at London 2012
$4,000 China most Gold Medals
$4,000 Canterbury at $2.35 v Manly
$3,000 St George +5.5 v Souths
$3,000 Richmond +7.5 v North